Why You’ll Never Drive a Car Anymore: Everything You Need to Know
The self-driving car revolution is gonna put money in your pocket much sooner than you think.
I’m extremely confident in achieving full autonomy and releasing it to the Tesla customer base next year (2021).- Elon Musk in an interview this week
One of the things I love about Elon Musk is that he really wants to change the world for the better. In this same interview he starts to say:
You should look back from the future and ask what’s the fundamental good of Tesla. It should be accessed as by how many years did Tesla accelerated the advantage of sustainable energy.
The truth is that we, humans, have to have sustainable energy yesterday, not tomorrow. Or our own survival will be at risk.
We are probably tired of hearing this kind of phrase. But until we change, we will continue to listen to it.
It’s not because Elon is trying to get us to Mars through SpaceX, that you shouldn’t leave a legacy of shifting paradigms for the next generation.
Unless you want your sons and daughters to look at your generation and say: You should be ashamed of yourself. How could you destroy the world we have to live in? No ancestral forests, clean rivers, coral reefs, or clean air for us to breed.
Tesla’s Model S was first released in 2008. And every auto companies laugh at Elon, saying he was crazy. A car moved by batteries. They told him he would never make it. Even though they didn’t know that Elon’s first wish was to save Planet Earth.
In the year 2020, every auto company wants a piece of Tesla. They recognize they should start investing in battery technology 10 years ago while they’re laughing at Tesla.
Nobody knew at that time what technology disruption, technology convergence, or vertical integration meant.
Nobody, except Elon Musk.
From a simple principle of saving the planet, Musk started a master shift. Things like Deep Learning, Artificial Intelligence, Robotic Cooperation, Autonomous Driving, were strange concepts for most auto industry.
Not for Tesla and not for some other tech companies.
The world as we know it’s going to suffer a profound transformation.
These new technology disruptions have just started. And they’re gonna radically change our lives for the better.
Let me tell you how.
Innovation Is the Ability to See Change as an Opportunity- Not a Threat
The number of broadcast stations in the year 1921 was 5. Jumped to 525 in 1923. And by the end of 1924, over 2 million broadcast-capable radio sets had been sold.
Technology disruptions have a powerful and compounding effect.
Tesla increased it’s total production from about 120,000 vehicles in 2017 to 350,000 in 2018.
While 2 Giga-factories are being built, one in Austin, Texas, and the other one in Berlin, Germany, a third one is almost finished in Shanghai.
Tesla’s deliveries reached between 367,000 and 368,000 units in 2019. But it’s gonna surpassed 500,000 units in 2020, despite the pandemic.
Tesla’s production is estimated to reach 4,000,000 in 2023. And rising.
There are almost 2 billion vehicles driving every day on our planet. Emitting carbon monoxide into the atmosphere. The atmosphere that we breathe. The same atmosphere that is capable to protect us from ultra-violet rays.
You don’t have to love Tesla.
Yet, I’m sure you love Planet Earth, right?
In the worst scenario, Elon Musk is going to be remembered as the guy who made massive production electric vehicles possible and sustainable, from a business point of view.
If people buy a Ford, an Audi, or a Toyota, that’s fine. Personally, I think it’s not gonna be the same experience. But what do I know?
The important thing is that change is coming. In a more eco-friendly way.
The Industrial Revolution was a long time ago. It’s time to protect the most valuable asset we have.
Our planet.
Son, You’ve Got a Good Engine, but Your Hands Aren’t on the Steering Wheel
Can you make the exercise of thinking you’re in the future? Maybe in 2030 will be fine.
Autonomous self-driving cars are all over the place. You are ordering over your phone for one of these vehicles to come to get you and leave you wherever you want.
Nobody is watching the road while cars are driving by themselves. People know self-driving technology protects them 100 times more than a driver would ever do.
So, that’s the new normal. You pay a fraction of what you would pay if you'd have your own car. You don’t need to pay for secure, or car maintenance. You don’t need to have a garage to park your car.
Somebody else treated all those things for you.
Transportation became a service, not ownership.
And the good news is, you will save money, time, and increase your protection against distractions and human error in traffic.
Typically, the use of a car is about 10 to 12 hours a week. But if you have a car that can operate autonomously, then most likely an autonomous self-driving car will do 55 to 60 hours a week.
Autonomous cars will substitute the amount of 12 internal combustion engine cars, doing the same service (transporting people and goods).
One of two things will happen, as Elon suggested. The number of vehicles will decrease and traffic will reduce. Or because traveling will be cheaper, people will use these services more frequently.
However, the conservative perspective is that one robot-taxi will substitute 5 internal combustion engine cars.
Fewer cars on the road, less traffic.
Cities landscape is going to change dramatically with the robot-taxi industry. People will travel more for less money.
I believe shopping malls will be restructured. Theaters, stadiums, fun parks, everything will be different from a cheaper transportation system.
Free time will be another advantage. You will have more time to be with your friends and family.
New paradigms will rise. Old ones will vanish.
One thing I am sure of.
We are already moving towards a more balanced planet and perhaps towards a kind of redemption of humans before Mother Nature.
Hope is the word.
Thank you,
Nuno