Why you NEED to watch Survivor: Game Changers

10 lessons learned from past All-Star seasons and this year’s most likely winners!

Survivor is one of the best shows on television, and it is back and better than ever. The newest season kicked off Wednesday with a two-hour premiere on CBS. The cast is loaded its biggest all-star season ever, and Survivor: Game Changers is certain to be weekly must-watch TV.

(You can watch the premiere at CBS On Demand. There are no spoilers for the new season below, but plenty from past seasons)

Each castaway has played before, some twice, leaving plenty to be learned from seasons past. Even bigger lessons can be gleaned from three previous all-star seasons: All Stars, Heroes vs Villains, and Cambodia’s Second Chance.

So what 10 trends in those all-star Survivor seasons could dictate game play this time around, and which castaways are most likely to win?

1. Beware the huge power of framing

The subconscious is a powerful thing. Psychologists have shown that humans respond to any number of cognitive biases without even realizing it. One such device is the framing effect, where people tend to view things in different biased ways depending on how things are presented.

Survivor loves to frame things. Last fall’s Millennials vs Generation X saw those differences played up, and Cambodia was a Second Chance where players overacted making “big moves” to prove America’s voted-in selections right. And the most obvious frame was Survivor: Heroes vs Villains, which saw empowered “villains” separate a hero’s shoulder, break another’s toes, and strip a third’s clothes all within the first few minutes of Episode 1. The heroes eventually came together heroically while Russell, Parvati, Sandra, and others embraced their villainy all season long.

Everyone here was selected as a Game Changer, and that may cause these castaways to constantly look for big moves and a chance to change the game. Throw the old game with two steady rival alliances right out the window. Expect these castaways to build their game-changing resumes from the start. That means big targets out early, an endless string of blindsides, and broken alliances galore.

2. An all-star season is far more personal

Forget the iconic Survivor experience where castaways meet for the first time on a beach and make an alliance ten minutes into the game that lasts all the way to the finish line. These Survivors know each other. They’ve watched each others’ seasons, studied each others’ games. Some have surely made pregame alliances or agreements before the cameras ever started rolling.

These guys know each other personally. They know spouses and children and financial needs back home. The game is more emotional because these Survivors are playing with real-life friends they’ve already gotten to know over the past years. These aren’t just nobodies that can be backstabbed for the sake of playing a game. There are real relationships at stake, and everyone has a different line between game and reality.

Everything here is personal. Every move carries far more weight than in a season with new castaways. Emotions complicate everything.

3. Never forget about past season relationships

If two all-star castaways played together previously, that relationship will almost certainly rear its head at some point. That can help form natural alliances already made in the past, gain trust from the jury, or cause an old enemy to seek sweet revenge. Old beefs never go away. These wounds have festered for years.

Look at Colby and Jerri, who played together three times. Colby ousted Jerri back in Australian Outback, then Jerri got her revenge seeing Colby out at All Stars and outlasted him again in Heroes vs Villains. That feud never went away. Sandra’s relationship with Rupert helped her learn valuable information about his alliance on Heroes vs Villains and almost certainly got the right Heroes’ votes in her win. Past relationships planted huge early targets on Cirie, Amanda, James, and Parvati in the same season as castaways worried about a reunion alliance.

Bad news:

Tony and Sarah are on opposing tribes now, but a Cops R Us reunion at the merge would certainly create intrigue. Tony betrayed Sarah and she would surely like nothing more than to find her revenge. Cirie worked closely with Ozzy in Micronesia but turned on him at just the right time. She also worked with J.T. in Heroes vs Villains before he turned on the alliance to blindside Cirie in her early exit. Now that trio will play together on the Nuku tribe and may be forced to work together. Will they ever trust one another?

Good news:

Andrea and Malcolm worked well together for much of Caramoan. That relationship could come in handy for two players sure to become big targets if they make the merge. Kaôh Rōng relationships could be big late. Caleb and Tai got along well, while Aubry and Debbie also worked together a lot. Neither pair is together at the start, but for players without obvious alliances, one of those relationships could swing some votes at the merge.

4. The perceived threats tend to go pretty quickly

All-star seasons are fun because of the big names, but fans are often disappointed when those names go out early because of the huge targets on their backs. All Stars saw four previous winners return; each was out before the merge. In Heroes vs Villains, the big targets were Boston Rob, Cirie, Stephenie, James, and previous winners Tom, J.T., Parvati, and Sandra. Five of those eight went out early and J.T. went out at the merge, while only Parvati and Sandra made it deep as the alpha players targeted each other early and often. Cambodia saw Terry, Woo, and Vytas all eliminated before the merge while Joe was gone the second he didn’t win individual immunity.

It’s easy to look back at past seasons and remember how good Tony, Sandra, and others were, but the castaways know that better than anyone. The big names are huge targets early and the target never really goes away. The only solace is there are so many other big targets to share the heat.

Bad news:

Sandra is the only two-time winner in Survivor history. Tony was a dominant recent winner. Cirie is one of the best players to never win. Each will have a huge target all game long. So too will previous winner J.T. and challenge-threat Ozzy along with other threats like Malcolm, Ciera, and Andrea. Don’t expect a merge tribe loaded with those big names.

5. Women have an advantage in all-star seasons

In all three all-star seasons, the jury has had more women than men. There’s been two female winners to one male, along with two female runners-up to one male. Men often go head-to-head early as the bigger targets eliminate themselves, while it’s easier for women to slide under the radar and last a bit longer. And not just any women — it’s usually the ones strong at challenges. As tribes look to maintain the numbers early, the weaker women are often eliminated while the stronger, younger women tend to stick around.

In All Stars, Tina and Sue were the first two women out, both older and not super useful in challenges, while stronger assets Kathy and Alicia lasted much longer. Heroes vs Villains saw the weaker Sugar and Cirie eliminated early. Sandra did make it to the end, but she was accompanied by the competitive Parvati, Danielle, Candice, and Amanda. Cambodia saw Ciera, Kelly Wentworth, and Tasha all play deep into the game.

Bad news:

Sandra and Cirie are already huge targets, and this is another easy reason to get rid of them early. Challenges could also be a reason to target both Debbie and Aubry early on for an easy vote.

Good news:

This is great news for women like Andrea, Ciera, Sarah, and Michaela who are all real assets in the challenges. Their physical fitness as a woman should be enough to make the merge. That gives them a lot of time to build relationships and strategize early in the game.

6. Past loyalists tend to stay true to alliances

Old school Survivor was about making an early alliance and sticking with it all the way to the end. Some still play that way, and it tends to keep them around awhile before they are used and discarded by the power players.

In All Stars this helped Big Tom and Rupert to the final five, then it was Rupert again in Heroes vs Villains along with Coach and Jerri. Cambodia saw Keith and Kimmi make the final six. None of these players made any moves all game except to tag on to a majority alliance and do what they were told.

Loyalists are nothing more than numbers in an all-star season. They last awhile and then they are disposed of. They have no real chance to win because they have no resume even if they do make it to the final jury.

Bad news:

There aren’t as many loyalists by nature in a Game Changers season, but Sierra, Caleb, and Tai are strong candidates. None of them showed much strategic prowess previously and each seems to follow the leader. It’s tough to see any of the three having any real chance of winning.

7. Recent castaways are unknown — and dangerous

Remember, we aren’t watching the show unfold live. The 39-day adventure already happened months ago last summer. That means these 20 castaways played Survivor: Game Changers without ever seeing Zeke or Michaela on their season this fall.

This happened twice before, and each unknown went a long way. Rupert had been a challenge beast on Pearl Islands but lasted all the way to the All Stars final four with a great shot at winning. The unknown in Heroes vs Villains was Russell Hantz. He’d dominated the previous season wire-to-wire in an all-time villain performances, but no one had seen it yet. Sure enough, an overlooked Russell ran the show from start to finish in a mirror image performance, making the final three a second straight season.

Players from recent seasons are unknown. There’s no way to scout them, no built-in fears. They’re not a threat. They’re not anything. And in an all-star season filled with big targets, and that can often leave these unknown off the radar a very long time. Of course it’s not all sunshine and puppies. These players also never got to see their own seasons and learn from past mistakes. Rupert was his proud, boisterous self again, without much accompanying strategy. Russell played dirty and devious again, without knowing yet that it would cost him dearly in the final jury count.

Good news:

In a season of big targets, both Zeke and Michaela could stay somewhat off the radar (though Michaela is not exactly an off-the-radar character). This could be a huge advantage for Zeke if he can learn on the fly. Both could be overlooked early on and last deep into the game.

8. Beware lone representatives from past seasons

Past relationships are everywhere in an all-star season — but not for everyone. Some seasons like Kaôh Rōng have four castaways back, while others have a lone representative. Loners from past seasons tend to be free agents in all-star seasons. Remember, past relationships are dangerous. They can mean past enemies seeking revenge or can worry tribemates about hidden alliances or future merge relationships. That tends to make lone representatives a smaller target and put them in a power swing vote position at times.

In All Stars, the two loners from past seasons were Rupert and Shii Ann. People targeted the past relationships early on while Rupert and Shii Ann were able to earn trust and join alliances that led both to the final six. Heroes vs Villians’ only lone rep was Russell Hantz who went all the way to the finals. Cambodia cast a wider net and brought in seven lone reps, reversing the trend as old relationships proved to be the only trustworthy ones.

Good news:

The only true lone representative on Game Changers is Troyzan. If he can control his boisterous attitude, he could surprise and last a lot longer than expected. Jeff and Sandra could also benefit some from the lone wolf effect. Each played briefly with Ciera and J.T., on Cambodia and Heroes vs Villains respectively, but not long enough to have any real relationships. Both are lone wolves and, on the same tribe, could end up partnering up by default.

9. Beware the “Why are THEY here??” women

All-star seasons always have a couple of strange cast choices that leave fans scratching their heads as to why they were chosen for a prestigious all-star season. They’re almost always women — maybe because so many men make power plays that turn themselves into all stars, or maybe because Survivor needs to fill its quota of young women in bikinis.

Whatever the reason, these women tend to fly below the radar. They are non-threats. In Cambodia Kelly Wentworth went from nobody to fan favorite and lasted to the final four. Heroes vs Villains saw Danielle and Candice make the final eight, both making power moves at unexpected times. And of course All Stars saw Amber and Jenna not only made the final three, but of course Amber was the winner. The only “why are THEY here??” candidate that didn’t last a long time was Monica, first out from her tribe in Cambodia.

Maybe these women simply fly under the radar. Perhaps they flirt their way to the top. Or maybe Survivor knows more about casting than we do and saw something in these strange choices. Either way, they sure do last a long ways.

Good news:

This is all great news for Hali Ford and Sierra Dawn Thomas, two women from Survivor: Worlds Apart you probably remember almost nothing about. Sierra wasn’t even an initial cast choice, a late replacement for previous winner Natalie Anderson when she had to pull out of Game Changers. Hali and Sierra are non-threats. No one has any reason to target them, and both are solid enough in challenges to stick around a long time. You may not know them now, but you will soon enough.

10. Past near-winners are in trouble

The closer an all-star got to winning in their previous season, the bigger they tend to come out swinging. They got so close to the million dollars they could taste it, and that sting often causes castaways to force big moves and look to do something drastically different so things will be different this time.

And it doesn’t always work out so well. Lex was a key example at All Stars. He was in a great position early but turned on Ethan and Colby, backstabbing his own friends before Boston Rob did the same to him. Stephen tried to make some bigger moves in his Cambodia return but never found any real traction and was always on the outside looking in. J.T. won his season but tried to play a drastically different game in his Heroes vs Villains return. He ended up making one of the dumbest moves in Survivor history instead.

Bad news:

Watch out for Aubry, whose runner-up finish came just weeks before the Game Changers season was filmed. She played a quiet, subtle game much of her season. If she tries to make a big move early this time, it could lead to her downfall. Watch out for Malcolm too. He’s been close twice which could lead to overconfidence, a big target, and playing too hard like J.T. in his return. Ozzy is another candidate to switch things up this time around.

Parting thoughts

Survivor: Game Changers should be loaded with interesting game play and interesting interpersonal relationships from the get-go, maybe more than ever with the Game Changer framing effect.

Expect Survivor itself to load up on the Game Changers thing. There may be a bunch of early tribe swaps to mix things up, perhaps a merge extra early or way later than expected. Tribe swaps will likely happen early and often in an effort to mix up pregame alliances and past relationships. Watch for the challenges and conditions to be particularly brutal.

And look for new twists and turns from every angle. Already Survivor announced a rule change on tie votes. In the past, a tie vote would allow a re-vote before a discussion and Purple Rock of Death tiebreaker. The re-vote has been removed, so ties are more dangerous now. That could create waves in a tribe split down the middle, and it makes hidden immunity idols more powerful than ever since a split vote can no longer flush the idol out without consequence.

The Nuku tribe could be very strong in challenges early. Brad, J.T., and Andrea look like an obvious alliance and could be a cover for Ozzy and Cirie. Zeke seems a misfit in this tribe, which could put him in a similar position to last fall when he was an obvious flip candidate at the merge. Debbie looks like an easy early target for the J.T./Ozzy/Cirie power trio, who could duck pressure longer than expected if their tribe wins a lot of early challenges.

The Mana tribe is loaded with big targets, led by Sandra and Tony who seem destined to clash early on with their brash playing styles. It feels like a younger athletic grouping of Malcolm, Ciera, Hali, Michaela, and Caleb could work well together. Keep an eye on a possible Ciera-Malcolm tag team in particular. Aubry doesn’t fit and could be in trouble early, a candidate to flip at the merge if she lasts. This tribe looks like the one that will spend time at tribal council early and that could mean quick eliminations for Tony, Jeff, Troyzan, or Malcolm as they fight for early alpha male control.

The most likely winners

So who is most likely to win this whole thing based on everything above?

5. Andrea Boehlke

Andrea is a smart, athletic, well-liked woman, the type that tends to go far in an all-star season. She’s the perfect candidate to pair with a power male like Malcolm or J.T., letting them win challenges and shield her and getting all the dirt on their hands while she quietly carries the social game and earns jury votes. The problem is Andrea might be too big of a target herself as both a physical threat and someone likely to make her own big move, and her paranoia has been her downfall in the past. If she can keep it cool, she has a real shot.

4. Hali Ford

Call me crazy, but I really like Hali’s position in this game and think she has an excellent chance to last a really long time. She’s athletic and should do well in challenges, and she’s a threat to no one in particular. That makes her a useful alliance member and someone that fly totally under the radar until late in the game, maybe all the way to the final three behind power players and hope her social game carries the day against an all-star jury that is often bitter at blown personal relationships. Can Hali win? That remains to be seen. But she has a great shot at becoming this all-star season’s Kelly Wentworth.

3. Sandra Diaz-Twine

It would be wild for Sandra to play and win Survivor three times. She’s a clear first boot candidate — what bigger game-changing move is there than voting out the only two-time winner? Sandra is such an obvious target that she could be too obvious. Maybe the castaways think, eh, we can always get Sandra later. Her game is about avoiding heat, looking weak, and letting the target fall on others. She’s always looking for a move but rarely makes it, only when she is sure. In a season with a big targets, the Survivor laying back playing it cool may go a long ways. And the closer Sandra she gets to the end, the more dangerous she may be as castaways trick themselves into thinking she’s perfect to take into a final trio. She never wins challenges, and the jury wouldn’t really vote to give Sandra another million dollars… would they??

2. Ciera Eastin

Ciera is so sharp and such a smart game player. She’s played Survivor twice and, with her mother’s background, has a full four games of experience in her cache. She’s great at building relationships with everyone, men and women alike. Ciera also has a Parvati-type skill set that could see her do well in late individual challenges that often rely on balance, dexterity, and puzzle solving. Her biggest enemy in past seasons has been her desire to make big moves — and that’s a real danger with the Game Changers framing. But Ciera is in a great position with like-minded castaways in the Mana tribe, and she could be a candidate to pair with a bigger target like Malcolm or Sandra as a shield to protect her until late in the game. Ciera is the whole package. She’s a big target and could be her own downfall but may fly far if she can chill early.

1. Zeke Smith

Zeke is an unknown to his fellow castaways, so that should keep an early target off his back, and he’s already shown great ability to play the middle and keep a low profile while bigger targets get voted out. Zeke can relate well to anyone, and that will be a big asset at the merge and in earning jury votes as he is so well-liked. Zeke won’t have had the chance to learn from watching his own Millennials vs Gen X season, but he already showed good ability to adapt and grow his game within his first three-week experience. He played a smart game and was in great position but acted a little too soon. Zeke should be around a long time in Game Changers. If he waits for his moment and keeps the right balance, he could have a real shot at the million dollars.

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