Why Trump Must Run in 2024

He needs a way out

One could say that the noose is tightening around Donald Trump. He is facing investigations of his finances in NY, his attempt to corrupt the elections in Georgia, his theft of national documents (especially those that are classified), inciting a riot on January 6th, and quite possibly conspiracy and sedition. The wheels of government turn slowly, but turn they do. Yesterday, in a deposition for the Attorney General of New York’s investigation, Trump pleaded his fifth amendment rights against self-incrimination over 440 times.

But remember what he himself thinks about it…

In 2016 he said this at a rally in Iowa about Hilary Clinton: “Her staffers taking the Fifth Amendment, how about that?” He added, “You see the mob takes the Fifth. If you’re innocent, why are you taking the Fifth Amendment?”

So, yes, Donald… If you are innocent, why are you taking the Fifth Amendment?

But the bigger question is… why are you running for President again?

These investigations and his decision to run again are intimately tied together. Trump has no defense. We know what he said to Brad Raffensberger in Georgia. The January 6th committee is turning the screws on his sedition conspiracy. There’s plenty of evidence he committed fraud on taxes, real estate, and everything involving money. And the so-called “raid” on Mar-a-Lago indicates there is likely a lot more there in the theft of documents from the nation than one might think. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that Trump is likely guilty of these things. If he is not, there would be nothing to worry about. He would not need the Fifth Amendment. He would testify, he would clarify, and he would be exonerated. But Trump has been exonerated of nothing. He has cooperated nowhere. He has hidden behind the Fifth Amendment, spurious executive privilege claims, and attorney-client privilege, all the while dangling pardons — at least while he was in office — to those unfortunate enough to be convicted of crimes committed in service to him.

Running for a public defense

So what do you do when you are a career criminal, committed extensive crimes against the country, and are running out of legal options? You run for president so you can summon a mob to your defense.

That is why Trump is running. Justice is closing in on him. If he runs, he can claim it is all political and bring all kinds of allies to his defense. Politicians with their nuts in a vice come in to support him. Right-wing media comes in to support him. Nut bags support him through calls for civil war. Knowing that he cannot possibly win all these cases, his only path is to deter indictment, conviction, and sentencing through public outcry. And for that, he must run for President again.

This week, we already saw it. He and Donald Trump, Jr. both invoked America as a “banana republic” and a Third World country because of the Mar-a-Lago raid. This makes Trump into a victim of the raid, and whips up his followers. A good American politician would not fan these flames — indeed, a good man would stand up and quiet the furor. Trump has not done that. He won’t do it because he needs the furor to defend himself from prosecution.

Trump’s skill at whipping up his base has already slowed prosecutors. Certainly, it makes any move against him a point of long and careful consideration. Letitia James (New York Attorney General), Merrick Garland (US Attorney General), and Fani Willis (Fulton County, Georgia, District Attorney) are all thinking about the implications of any move they make while investigating and they will face even harsher responses if they indict, prosecute, and/or convict. Make no mistake about it — that slowing and delaying is exactly the point.

Trump has successfully intimidated officials without actually threatening them himself. He cries out: “This is an outrage!” and the same people who stormed the capitol or cheered them on, are now threatening the officials and the proceedings. Death threats against judges involved in the warrants for the Mar-a-Lago search spiked. So have threats against the FBI, it’s director, and even law enforcement generally. A man walks into a field office of the FBI with an AR-15 three days later. These are violent threats, similar to those before January 6th. Calls for Civil War are all over the right-wing media and social media. Raids executed under a judge’s signed warrant are one thing; death threats on public officials and calls to Civil War are the real hallmarks of banana republic.

This is how Trump intimidates without incriminating himself. He is trying to throw the investigations off through this public outcry.

Running because he might be convicted

There is another reason Trump needs to run for President again — the Self-pardon. It is conceivable that Trump could be found guilty of many of these crimes, even be sentenced to prison, and still be elected President. Certainly his followers are rabid enough to vote for him anyway. They will follow his line that everything is politically motivated and the “deep state” is robbing them of their leader and their country. If there were enough to elect him, or even fraudulently elect him while he is serving a sentence, he would almost certainly and immediately pardon himself. It would then go the Supreme Court to decide if he has that power, and with so many of them owing him their existence, it is likely the court would approve such a pardon. At least, if you are Trump, you would think so. And the same dynamic that has prosecutors thinking twice about their next steps will ride in the minds of Supreme Court justices. No one wants to be taken down by an angry mob.

There is nothing in the Constitutional qualifications for President that prevent a convict from running. Especially if a trial resulted in a conviction near election time, his followers will be there for him. They believe too much. Trump could easily be elected if convicted of fraud or similar crimes. On the other hand, there is Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment:

Section 3 Disqualification from Holding Office

No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.

This amendment means that if the crime he is convicted of is insurrection or rebellion, he cannot hold office. There is some assertion that a later amnesty created by Congress nullifies this amendment, but like the self-pardon, the idea has never been tested and one can be assured that Trump will test it if given the opportunity. That opportunity arises, however, only if he runs.

Running to control the narrative

Finally, there is one more reason Trump must run — it is the only way he can command loyalty from those who might otherwise testify against him. Those with the goods know one thing: Trump rewards loyalty. Michael Flynn learned that. So did Roger Stone. And Steve Bannon. And, from the other side, Michael Cohen did, too. Everyone in Trump world knows this. If Trump did not run, he would have no power to wield. If he isn’t running, there are no implicit promises of pardons, and that changes the calculus for anyone who might turn on him. If elected, Trump will pardon corruption — he has already proved that. Everyone around him who he conspired with knows that they need him elected too.

Running from his crimes

If Trump has learned anything, it is that power lies in the office, and if he were to walk away now, he would have no power whatsoever. Trump must run because it is his last gasp effort to stay out of prison, or get out if he is sentenced before election day. He knows that justice is finally closing in. He knows what he has done. He knows they are crimes. And he does not care. Running for President is the only way he stays out of prison, so he will run.

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Gadwall Jackson

Writing the Unspeakable Truth