Why Only Stupid People Think They Are Smart
Have you ever heard of the Dunning-Kruger Effect?
First, grab a cup of coffee or tea because it's a bit dry subject to learn.
I am fortunate enough to say that I know many smart people who think they are dumb.
They embrace continuous learning despite the fact that they are super smart.
I am also unfortunate that many people I know are stupid but think they are super smart.
They literally put a FULL STOP on continuous learning.
That two-way thinking always brings me back to the following quote by Bertrand Russell.
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people are so full of doubts. — Bertrand Russell
Please reread the quote and take a pause to think about your social circle.
In psychology, what Russell described is more popularly known as The Dunning-Kruger Effect.
Psychology defines it in another way.
This effect finds that people who are bad at something tend to believe that they’re actually good at it.
And people who are good at something tend to believe they are bad at it.
Dunning–Kruger effect
I love data, being an engineer, it always helps me to udnerstand it better if there is a way to quantify something.
Here is a fact: drivers in their 60s have the same car accident rate as drivers in their 30s. However, if follow the Dunning-Kruger effct, elder people beleive they are better drivers.
Data says older drivers are actually four times more likely to make unsafe driving errors than younger ones.
Data also shows that older drivers 65+ or in their 70s contribute to accidents at 43% as compared to all other ages at 36%.
That is compared with just 35.7% for all ages.
The poor students dramatically overestimate their performance on exams.
The lowest performers in a debate competition wildly overestimate how well they do.
People with the unhealthiest lifestyle habits rate themselves as far healthier than they actually are.
People who score poorly on cognitive reasoning and analytical thinking tests severely overestimate their cognitive and analytical abilities.
Why does this happen?
Let’s try to understand it.
So there are known things.
I know how to make tea because I have been making tea for years.
But there are things I have no clue. I don’t know how genes work.
Then there are unknowns. These are the things that you have remembered since childhood but sometimes forget.
When we are a newbie at something, we are very aware of the things that we know we know, and we’re completely oblivious to the things that we don’t know.
Let’s use cricket as an example. I am going to use a cricket example because that’s what I grew up playing, and it’s easy for me to understand.
I know what cricket is and how people play it.
If you know nothing about cricket, here are my 2-cents on cricket.
It pretty straighforward, all you have to do, one person hit the ball with a bat and one person has to throguh the ball and there are many people there to catch the ball.
Seems simple enough
But as you start to learn more about cricket, you discover that there are a lot of nuances.
How do you throw the ball?
How to hold a bat?
What is the role of each player?
Why are there wickets?
Whats lbw?
Why do you run after hitting the ball, etc?
It’s just the tip of the iceberg; there are many things you don’t know.
But about playing cricket for a couple of years?
Now you won’t even think what the meanings of all the wickets are.
What the players are doing?
Why to hold the bat in a certain way?
But you are not a pro. That practice of doing it for two years embedded it into your system.
It’s your unconscious.
It’s automatic.
Let's take another example.
If someone is having a hard time understanding something, try to find an example close to life; and the person will learn the concept faster.
What about brushing your teeth each morning?
It’s embedded in our unconscious.
It’s automatic.
But what about flossing?
Be real; do you floss each day?
I did an experiment doing flossing for 30+ days. However, I still miss a day or two, it snot automatic, its the unknown.
I am trying to relate the examples with our knowledge. A newbie will make sure he knows everything about cricket after a year or two, but a smart person knows there is much more to learn.
It’s a never-ending goal.
You know the topic, but you don’t know everything about the topic. I dare you to comment on any topic, and I can say with confidence that there are many things you still don’t know about the topic.
However, a stupid person will say he knows way more than he actually knows.
Question
Did you ever come to the realization that you know nothing about a certain topic, especially when you know a lot?
I did a bachelor's in Math and then a Master's in Engineering. While writing my thesis, I learned there is much more I don't know than I know.
I never thought that I knew a lot.
That’s one reason I have a home library, which always keeps me grounded because I have more books than I read.
Those unread books always remind me of how much knowledge I need to learn.
It’s a fact the more you know, the more you know that you don’t know.
Expert thinks he knows nothing because he is so aware of all the ways in which he may be wrong.
Now, I know what you’re probably doing right now; it’s probably the same thing I did, and most people do when they learn about The Dunning-Kruger effect.
You think to yourself, what a bunch of idiots.
So, this is the tricky thing about learning about cognitive biases.
What is cognitive bias?
Cognitive bias is a tendency to make illogical judgments.
For example
Confirmation bias involves seeking information that confirms existing beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence.
Signs of cognitive bias
- Focusing only on news reports that support your opinions
- When things don’t go your way, you blame outside factors.
- Your success means hard work, but others mean pure luck
- Learning the basics of a subject then thinking you are an expert.
But again, we are so wrong because research has repeatedly shown that educating people about their cognitive biases doesn’t make them any less sensitive.
Have you ever heard about blind spots?
My wife always checks for blind spots, especially when we are buying a new vehicle.
But what about blind spots in your learning? There may be a missing piece of the puzzle that you don’t want to learn or intentionally ignore based on your bias.
How do you fix something that you can’t see in yourself?
This is the paradox of trying to overcome our own ignorance.
The very thing that would help us see our mistakes is exactly what would prevent us from making them in the first place.
Part of the problem is that there is a comfort in the feeling of knowing,
People don’t like uncertainty. Our brain hates uncertainty.
Settling on a belief, whether it’s true or not, is a way to resolve anxiety within ourselves.
Our minds often default to believing things even if we have little evidence for them.
And unfortunately, ripping on people for being stupid doesn’t really help the situation either.
Anybody who’s gotten into a dumb ass argument in comment threads can tell you this from experience.
Again and again, psychology has shown that when people’s beliefs are challenged, they don’t change their minds. They actually get more rigid and defensive.
What to do?
Try to hold fewer opinions. lol
I always use the “lol” when someone says to do something without a plan or how, especially when the “how” part is missing.
Okay, thanks for sharing so I can have fewer opinions.
But how do we have fewer opinions?
Should I stop living life?
Should I stop reading?
Should I stop watching?
That’s not a solution.
Have you ever heard you never get involved emotionally?
I am trying to say the same: never get attached emotionally to opinions.
Let me share a tiny story.
My dad passed away in 2023 from a heart attack. I had never met a more helpful person, especially to strangers, than my father.
He attended almost every family occasion, read all the newspapers, and you name it if he ever left a single novel on the planet Earth.
My father was a voracious reader.
He taught us never to accept something, even when someone you know very well says something about someone.
Develop the habit of always verifying things on your own.
That’s a great habit to develop to overcome the opinions approach or at least have fewer opinions.
Are you following me where I am heading?
Are you, as a reader, going to do it?
Did you face harder to develop habits, especially if you are 37+ years old? It’s true because habits are embedded in our systems. We do things without even thinking about them.
It’s the same knowledge that we know how to ride a bicycle. It’s not going anywhere.
I am advocating in my social circle how to have fewer opinions, but no one is taking me seriously or at least taking the basic steps.
You as a reader are going to do the same. You are jsut thinking this guy is saying to have fewer opnions, just another guru.
So when it comes to other people, I think one of the hard truths that I’ve had to swallow over the years is that you can’t really change the mind of somebody who’s not willing to have their mind changed.
You can throw as much data and statistics and logical arguments at them, but they’re just hear from on ear and throw from other ear.
I think this is because most people’s beliefs are not based on logic or reason.
Most people’s beliefs are based on identity and tribes.
It seems like living with obsolete data.
It’s hard to change their beliefs because they think of themselves as a tribe. It means you’re attacking their tribe.
Let me try to connect the above thought with traveling.
When I moved to a big city for higher education, I did not have enough money. Sometimes, having the bare minimum for a month even to eat was hard.
In the summer holidays, I always came back to my village because of the lack of resources.
My parents could not afford to send me on luxury trips or travel abroad, and there wasn’t any awareness of working while studying.
I wish I knew that there is no shame in working. It was just a cultural thing, I guess.
Anyway, when I went back to university after the summer holiday, my classmates and professors shared their stories about Dubai, the UK, Saudi Arabia, etc.
It's a perspective about a new culture.
I learned that traveling helps to expand your perspectives.
You will not feel attacked if you have more experience in life by traveling to different parts of the world.
Traveling helps a lot in changing your reserve. Next time you plan to travel, don’t just sit in a 5-star resort; go out, meet locals, eat their food, and learn why they do certain things and what they do differently from your culture.
I also learned it’s hard to change people’s beliefs. But it is easy to say that I also read or watched this thing; it feels like giving them a glimpse of what they do not believe or have strong opinions.
Age plays a crucial role in changing your perspectives, especially if you are a firm believer in perpetual learning.
How do you not stop learning?
It’s simple.
Now, you can jump into any great mind with barely $20 to learn what and why they think. What makes them great? I am talking about books, articles, blogs.
Let me explain why stupid or idiotic people always think they are smart. They think they figured out life.
Ahh, life is super complicated.
I am fortunate to have met many successful people and trust me (in my opinion), no one has absolutely figured it out yet.
So, any sense of false certainty is really just gonna cause more pain than necessary.
I think what The Dunning-Kruger Effect really teaches us is that humility is actually very practical.
By intentionally underestimating our own understanding of things, we not only open ourselves up to learning and growing more, but we also prevent ourselves from being narcissistic.
Everybody thinks they are humble.
Are you humble?
You won’t get the answer no.
The bottom line
Life is super complicated, and don't worry if you are still figuring it out.
Even the most successful people are still figuring it out. It might give you peace of mind that you are not alone.
The Dunning-Kruger Effect explains:
Why do stupid people often think they’re smarter than they are?
Why do smart people doubt their abilities?
Idiots are unaware of their ignorance.
Smart people are aware of what they still need to learn.
Overcoming this bias is extremely difficult.
Know your blind spots.
However, holding fewer opinions and being humble can help in the long run. This is only possible through continuous learning.
Book recommendation
Predictably Irrational, Revised and Expanded Edition: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions
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