Why do we prefer 100% chance of a bad outcome versus a 50%/50% chance of good/bad?

Our hatred for uncertainty

A study out of the University of London was published in 2016: “Uncertainty can cause more stress than inevitable pain” where it was proven that knowing that there is a 50/50 chance of getting a painful electric shock creates significantly more stress than knowing that you will definitely be shocked.

We’d rather be certain a bad thing will happen, than uncertain of what will happen (good or bad).

Our innate preference for predictability has profound implications for our decisions in life, from relationships to business.

This reminds me of one of my all-time favorite books, When Things Fall Apart (Pema Chodron), where she speaks about groundlessness — and how that’s the only certainty we’ve really got.

She explains how in Buddhism, the willingness to “give up hope that insecurity and pain can be exterminated” is what gives us the courage to “relax into the groundlessness.”

“To seek for lasting security is futile…for those who want something to hold on to, life is even more inconvenient. From this point of view, theism is an addiction. We’re all addicted to hope — hope that the doubt and mystery will go away. This addiction has a painful effect on society: a society based on lots of people addicted to getting ground under their feet is not a very compassionate place”

What can we learn from this? For one thing, we can explore the idea that “renunciation of the hope that our experience could be different” (Chodron) is the start of softening into uncertainty — and to perhaps recognize that a 50/50 chance of good/bad is actually better than a 100% chance of bad.

Uncertainty: welcoming the is-ness

“Do you want to know what my secret is? I don’t mind what happens.” (Krishnamurkti)

We freakin’ love certainty. Our modern world has given us so much of it — we can track our Uber Eats delivery, our Amazon orders, and even our friends at literally any given moment. We’re enabling our ego’s attachment to certainty by continuing to coddle it with as much certainty as we can provide.

As pioneers of the modern era, it’s our task to lean into the unknown, to relish the 50/50 chances, and to innovate our perspectives. Let’s not just track our deliveries, but also the trajectory of our souls. Let’s not get “stuck” going this certain way simply because there’s 50% chance that bad things happen in that uncertain way.

How can we lean in and surpass the fear of uncertainty? By asking ourselves: what if things actually turn out even better if we go that way?

Keep asking yourself: what if things work out better than they are now?

In a world where certainty is but a tap away, what uncertainties are you willing to embrace for the enrichment of your soul?