Why Biden Should Go On A Positive Offensive

In hard times, voters are looking for grounded optimism (co-authored with @bernard.asare)

A conventional wisdom seems to be taking hold in American political circles. From former Virginia governor Terry McAuliffe, through opinion columnists Paul Waldman, Greg Sargent, and Charlie Cook, to Republican strategist Frank Luntz, the message to presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden is clear:

If you want to win, stay in your basement. Let Trump do your bidding.

Biden has indeed stayed largely out of Trump’s way, limiting his public pronouncements to posts on Medium, short Tweets, and infrequent interviews. With recent polls showing Biden with a 14% lead among registered voters nationally, this strategy appears to be working.

So should Biden continue to stay quiet until Election Day?

We don’t believe so.

To be sure, there is a reasonable chance that Biden could ride this strategy all the way to victory on Election Day. At the moment, Trump is doing a very good job at losing the public’s support.

However, this strategy is much riskier than advocates realize, both for securing victory in November and for ensuring an effective presidency. With more than 120 days until Election Day, there is plenty of time for things to trend back towards Trump. And defeating Trump without defeating Trumpian politics is a surefire way to win the election but lose the presidency.

Biden’s stay-at-home strategy is also premised on faulty assumptions. It assumes, for example, that Biden’s inevitable gaffes would hurt him so badly that he’s better off keeping quiet. In any other election year, this might be true. But against Trump in 2020? We don’t think so.

Another assumption underlying Biden’s strategy is that, due to deep partisan fissures, any positive vision he lays out would either alienate supporters or earn the scorn of center-right voters. That too is mistaken. While partisan differences undoubtedly exist, polls show that Americans agree on far more than political pundits generally recognize. Biden can form a unifying vision that appeals to a broad swath of voters on the left and the center-right.

Probably the worst assumption behind Biden’s strategy is that time is on his side. With an unpredictable president who doesn’t play by the rules and a spreading epidemic, the dangers of unwelcome surprises are manifold. Unless Biden or Trump do something truly groundbreaking, Biden is almost certainly in a better position now than he will be on November 3.

All of this raises the question: What would a better Biden strategy look like?

To start, we’d change Biden’s tone.

Most of Biden’s recent statements have been negative, pointing to Trump’s failures. For example, Biden recently held his first press conference in three months. In his 20-minute prepared remarks, Biden spent nearly 10 minutes (including his first six) attacking Trump, approximately nine minutes outlining his recommendations on fighting Coronavirus, and a paltry 1:20 minutes at the end, breezing through what he would do as president. In other words, just 7% of Biden’s prepared remarks struck a somewhat positive tone.

Attacking Trump is probably the least effective use of Biden’s time. It makes him look like an angry old man - we already have one in the White House. It also plays directly into the hyper-partisanship that fuels Trump’s political game. Why push wavering Trump voters back into his “red team”? And besides, outside organizations such as American Bridge and the Republican anti-Trump Lincoln Project are already doing a brilliant job attacking Trump’s record.

Biden’s time would be much better spent spreading optimism, empathy, and reassurance. His condemnation of Trump should be as sharp and succinct as possible. The best contrast to Trump’s temper tantrums is positive and confident leadership by Biden.

Next, Biden should ground his optimistic tone in some unpleasant truths.

Staying positive doesn’t mean ignoring harsh realities. A positive tone that ignores people’s everyday struggles smacks of disconnectedness, spin, and traditional political cynicism.

Biden’s grounded optimism should start by acknowledging that, for far too long, partisan politics have failed too many Americans. That’s not strictly a Republican failure; it’s a bipartisan failure. Trump just took it to new heights. Biden should recognize that we all can do better, but only if we refuse to listen to those who are trying to divide us. We’re one team.

Third, Biden should offer a clear and unifying vision for America.

Rather than focusing on specific policies, Biden should paint a picture of what America will look like four years into his presidency. His vision should be framed in terms that most Americans agree on: Personal fulfillment, financial security, affordable healthcare, working together to solve challenges, government and police accountability, and giving our veterans the services they need and deserve.

Finally, Biden should issue a call to action.

In his press conference, one of Biden’s strongest moments came about two-thirds in, when he called on Americans to wear masks to protect others.

Biden should keep up with these calls to action. Give Americans some responsibility for fixing America. Encourage them to discard hyper-partisanship and cynicism, and to reach out to friends, family, and neighbors across the aisle. Build an engaged coalition that will last well beyond this election.

Today, Biden is well positioned. But winning the election and the presidency requires leaving the basement and engaging Americans. Don’t be afraid of the occasional gaffe — they make Joe who he is. Don’t focus on Trump’s failed presidency — to all but Trump’s most loyal supporters, that too is self-evident.

Instead, offer a positive vision that we can all get behind.