Who’s Going to Win the Georgia Runoff?

It’s still hugely important!

The midterms on Tuesday, for many people, were a massive relief. Maybe your party didn’t win every election, maybe some people you didn’t like didn’t win, maybe there were some Pyrrhic victories. But on the whole: The crazy people lost. Election deniers, Trump henchmen, people screaming on Newsmax … almost all of them lost. It felt like a collective “knock it off, assheads” from the American electorate. It was cleansing and a relief. There will still be embarrassing people in Congress — Marjorie Taylor Greene still walks amongst us — but on the whole: The whole thing felt refreshingly sane.

But there’s still one more potential embarrassment to take care of.

Look: I love Herschel Walker. I live in Athens, Georgia, and am a season ticket holder to Georgia football (and Georgia men’s and women’s basketball). I cheer every time Sanford Stadium shows the highlight of Herschel running over that poor Tennessee linebacker before every game. There is a little part of me that cringes every time someone calls him “stupid” or “slow” or “crazy,” considering how much Walker has struggled with his mental health and how forthright he has generally been about his issues, both past and present. For all his faults — as a person and especially as a political candidate — I think people generally want to like Herschel Walker. I know I do.

But seriously: This man cannot be a United States Senator.

The runoff between Walker and current Georgia Senator Raphael Warnock will take place on Tuesday, December 6, and there is a general sense, I’ve noticed, that the importance of this race has somehow lessened now that the Democrats will hold control of the Senate, thanks to Catherine Cortez Masto’s win in Nevada. But, as former White House press secretary Jen Psaki pointed out on Twitter, if anything, the race is more important now.

Of course, it’s important for Republicans as well: 50 for them, it turns out, is better than 49. And having a Senate seat for six years … that’ll probably come in handy, I’d bet.

So who’s going to win? Let’s take a look at the three arguments in favor of each candidate:

Herschel Walker

1. He’s still Herschel Walker, and they still love him here. And he was that close. One of the funniest subplots of the Republican primary involved all the potential challengers to Walker dropping out simply because he’s Herschel Walker. (One simply said, “I’m not going to try to beat Herschel Walker in Georgia. I wasn’t born yesterday.”) The fact remains that Herschel Walker is incredibly popular in Georgia, and will forever remain so. (I have friends whose primary memories of their childhood center around Herschel more than they do their parents. I’m just saying that my 11-year-old son has a lot of friends named “Walker.”) That’s brand loyalty that, state-wide, just can’t be overlooked. Remember, Walker trailed Walker by a mere 0.9 percentage points last week. It’s not that hard to make up 0.9 percentage points.
2. This purple state just went very red. For all the talk of Georgia being a purple or even blue state during the 2020 election, and for all the positives for Democrats nationwide, it should be noted that, in Georgia, the election last week very much was a red wave. Every statewide Republican candidate won, highlighted by Brian Kemp’s thorough trouncing of Stacey Abrams. (Abrams actually lost by a higher percentage than Jason Carter lost to Nathan Deal eight years ago.) Now, that actually doesn’t speak great for Walker, considering how far behind those candidates he ran, but it also gives him a terrific foundation to work on: In 2022, there were more Republicans voting in Georgia than Democrats, by a pretty wide margin.
3. This runoff is very different than the last one. Until the insurrection happened the next day, we all had a great time at the last Georgia runoff, right? Mass mobilization, get-out-the-vote efforts, all sorts of excitement. Well, thanks to the so-called “Election Integrity Act of 2021” — that law that got the MLB All-Star Game pulled out of Georgia —the early voting period is going to be a lot shorter this time around. The December 6 date means that there will be only one week of early voting this time around. This is a particularly a problem because the week before Election Day this year is Thanksgiving Week … and, as the Atlanta Journal-Constitution pointed out, also has a state holiday that exists because it’s Robert E. Lee’s birthday. (Oy.) You know all those early voting totals that helped Democrats win a bunch of elections on Tuesday? There’s a lot less early voting this time. This could very well end up being the difference in this race.

Raphael Warnock

1. He’s a star. One of the underrated aspects of the Democrats’ success on Tuesday night was how much they built up their bench, national-candidate-wise. Gretchen Whitmer, John Fetterman, J.B. Pritzker … there are some future stars in that lineup. But there may be no star potentially brighter than Warnock, who has political gifts that seem to lineup exactly with the Democratic coalation. If he is able to win two consecutive races for the Senate — something no Democrat has done in Georgia since Sam Nunn 30 years ago —he will rocket to the top of potential Democratic Presidential candidates. If he wins this race (and Biden runs in 2024, as is widely expected), he is absolutely primed to be a top-tier candidate in 2028, whether Biden wins or loses. There will be a lot of energy behind him: Remember, he did better than fellow Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff did two years ago.
2. The Senate isn’t on the line anymore. So much of the energy behind Walker, on the other hand, was not about his abilities as a candidate but simply the fact that he played for the right team. “We gotta get the Senate back,” was a common refrain. Maybe Walker has some flaws, but he’d reliably vote Republican in the Senate, and that’s really all a lot of people wanted out of their Senator. Well, with Catherine Cortez Masto’s win in Nevada, that’s out the window: The Democrats are going to hold the Senate no matter what happens in this race. Sure, 51 is better than 50, but one of the primary reasons many Republicans were voting for Walker was because “we need the Senate.” They’re not getting the Senate now. So that reason is now gone.
3. Republicans held their nose and voted for Walker before. They might not this time. You can tell from how much better every other statewide Republican did than Walker on Tuesday: People know Herschel Walker should not be a United States Senator. They might have been able to talk themselves into it when they thought a red wave was coming. But one wasn’t. So now Walker has to stand before voters on his own merits — or lack thereof. It’s one thing to want Walker to vote for your side. It’s another to actually have that guy as your Senator for the next six years. There wasn’t enthusiasm for him before. You’d have to think there’s even less now.

So how’s it going to turn out? That shortened early-voting period is a big, big problem, one that is currently underappreciated nationally. If Walker wins, that will be the main reason why. But I bet he’s going to fall short. It’s just difficult to look at those two people and think, “Yeah, Herschel Walker would be a better representative of the state of Georgia than Raphael Warnock.” I think the majority of Georgia voters believes as much. And I think they’ll say so on December 6. But know: It will be very close.

Will Leitch writes multiple pieces a week for Medium. Make sure to follow him right here. He lives in Athens, Georgia, with his family and is the author of five books, including the Edgar-nominated novel How Lucky, now out from Harper Books. He also writes a free weekly newsletter that you might enjoy.