Who Will Take Home the Big Awards at the 70th Primetime Emmys?

Atlanta and Handmaid’s Tale are back for more, but could The Americans be this year’s big winner? Favorites and sleepers for every major award

The era of Peak TV is upon us, and that means more television than ever before. TV isn’t just TV anymore. Now it’s streaming on every device, on-demand, and on YouTube. Our favorite shows are not aired weekly on network TV but on premium cable or binged on Netflix or Hulu. Television is different in 2018, and the Emmys are more competitive than ever.

The 70th Primetime Emmy Awards air Monday night on NBC (8pm ET) opposite Monday Night Football and Better Call Saul, so you need to know which awards are worth checking in for. The field is loaded with potential repeat winners as favorites, but some newcomers could rock the boat. Atlanta and Handmaid’s Tale garnered the most nominations and appear set to sweep the big awards, but The Americans could knock them off the mountaintop.

The Emmys don’t matter any more than the next award, but they’re a great excuse to look back on another outstanding year of television across any number of mediums. Let’s take a look at TV’s six biggest awards, with a favorite and sleeper pick for each category for Movie Time Guru.

Best Lead Actor, Comedy

The favorite — Donald Glover, Atlanta

Glover won for Atlanta last year, and the Emmys love a good repeat winner. There are plenty of favorites up for another trophy, and Glover is still one of the “it” names in entertainment with his work on Atlanta along with his poignant “This Is America” rap music video as Childish Gambino.

Atlanta was even better in Season 2, though that may have been more for Glover’s writing and directing. Some of the show’s most memorable episodes this season featured Glover’s fellow cast members, like Brian Tyree Henry getting mugged in “Woods” or led all over town in “Barbershop,” or like Lakeith Stanfield in the bamboozling “Teddy Perkins.” Though it’s easy to forget that Glover was in fact the lead in one of those episodes — he was Teddy Perkins himself, and that alone should be enough to repeat.

The sleeper — Bill Hader, Barry

Saturday Night Live’s Michael Che and Colin Jost are hosting this year’s Emmys, so maybe they’ll keep it in the SNL family and recognize Hader for his outstanding work on Hader’s baby, Barry on HBO. Hader’s Barry heads from the Midwest to L.A. and accidentally decides to give up his life as a hitman for the world of acting. That, of course, is easier said than done, and Hader is fantastic in his dark comedy. The Emmys love to recognize a good movies-to-TV star, so don’t be shocked if Hader is a winner.

Best Lead Actress, Comedy

The favorite — Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Here’s one award that won’t see a repeat, a big change considering Julia Louis-Dreyfus has won this six times in a row. But with Veep taking a hiatus until next spring, the category opened up for business in 2018. Even so, no major award is more certain than Brosnahan.

Brosnahan already broke through with an Emmy nomination for her work on House of Cards, but that turned out to be just a stepping stone to her explosion as Mariam “Midge” Maisel. Brosnahan was television’s breakout star this year and has already been recognized with a Golden Glove and a Critics’ Choice Award, and it would be a stunner if she didn’t win here.

The sleeper — Pamela Adlon, Better Things

This one’s a wrap, so allow me to wax poetic about Pamela Adlon in Better Things, one of my favorite hidden gems. Adlon is complicated, snarky, and believable trying to find her way as a middle-aged mother. Ironically for a show somewhat tainted by the involvement of Louie C.K., Better Things explores the world through women’s eyes in a way few shows on television can. Season 2’s best episode by far was the one Adlon’s nominated for, “Eulogy,” when Adlon’s three children stage a funeral for their mom as a strange-but-somehow-it-works way of showing their appreciation for her.

Best Lead Actor, Drama

The favorite — Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us

Brown is a defending Emmy winner, and he’s technically a two-time defending champ since he also won in 2016 as Christopher Darden on The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story. No show on television is better at tugging on our heart strings than This Is Us, and no one on the show brings out the waterworks better than Sterling K. Brown.

Brown’s nomination episode was the midseason finale, a mostly standalone Randall episode in which he makes the difficult decision to say goodbye to the troubled Deja, his would-be adopted daughter. Sometimes Brown can do more acting with pained facial expressions than most can do using words.

The sleeper — Matthew Rhys, The Americans

It will be an Americans tragedy if this brilliant show is retired for good without ever winning a real Emmy (come on, Guest Actress doesn’t count), joining the likes of other outstanding shows like The Wire, Deadwood, and Justified. The Americans was a long, slow burn that simmered to a steamy finish in May with arguably the show’s best episode, “START.”

The Americans is up for best actor and actress, writing, and drama series, but Matthew Rhys represents its best chance, if only because Brown is probably his only real competition. If you watched the finale, all you need to remind you are the words “parking garage” and “train scene,” and all the emotion will come flooding back. Perhaps The Americans will go out like Friday Night Lights instead, awarding its lead actor with the highest award in its final season.

Best Lead Actress, Drama

The favorite — Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale

Elisabeth Moss finally broke through to win her long-deserved Emmy last fall after years of Mad Men snubs. Moss has come along way since Zoey on West Wing, more than holding her own against those aforementioned Mad Men and carrying the day on Top of the Lake and now Handmaid’s Tale. The show may not have been as strong in Season 2, but Moss was better than ever as Offred cum June. But she faces a murderer’s row of challengers as always.

The sleeper — Sandra Oh, Killing Eve

With apologies to The Americans’ Keri Russell and The Crown’s Claire Foy, Sandra Oh could be the name that surprises Moss. Oh played the eponymous Eve in the breakout BBC America hit, and she delivers an enrapturing performance opposite Jodie Comer’s Villanelle in a delightful game of cat-and-mouse as the ever playful assassin becomes enamored with her would-be captor. Oh gives the year’s best performance as hunt begets intrigue and intrigue turns to passion, and she captures each confusing emotion with brilliance and subtlety. It was a shock to see Killing Eve miss nominations for Comer and best series, but all will be made right if Oh turns the first ever lead actress nomination for a woman of Asian descent into a first ever win.

Outstanding Comedy Series

The favorite — Atlanta

Atlanta was last year’s breakout star with wins for actor and director, but now it has its eyes on the big one with no Veep in sight to derail it. No show on television is more complex and poignant. Comedy? Maybe so. It’s part comedy, part drama, part social commentary, part horror, all brilliance. There was no more discussed half hour of television than “Teddy Perkins,” and just about every weekly episode sparked a full-on social discussion. Atlanta was the show 2018 needed.

The sleeper — Curb Your Enthusiasm

You’d think The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel is real challenger here, but the Emmys will probably be content to recognize Rachel Brosnahan. Instead, wouldn’t it be classic out-of-left-field Emmys to throw its biggest award at Larry David’s Curb Your Enthusiasm? Curb was uneven at best in its return, but this is the eighth series nomination and this would work as something of a lifetime achievement award for one of the great comedies.

Outstanding Drama Series

The favorite — The Handmaid’s Tale

Handmaid’s Tale swept the big awards last year and is a favorite to do so again, but Season 2 did not live up to its breakout rookie campaign. Still poignant in 2018, the dystopian series is set in the not-as-unbelievable-and-distant future as we’d hope, and the totalitarian regime still hits the cultural zeitgeist like nothing else on TV. Handmaid’s received the most drama nominations and could be lined up to defend its crown, but the field is much stronger this year and that could be trouble for a show that seemed to take a step backward.

The sleeper — Game of Thrones

Hey, remember Thrones? It feels like it’s been years since new Game of Thrones at this point, but it was just one summer ago we were watching what amounted to weekly movie productions. Benioff and Weiss gave us the epic battle in “Spoils of War,” “Beyond the Wall” with Jon’s merry men, and “The Dragon and the Wolf” in which Jon and Dany finally, well, you know. It’s easy to forget, but Game of Thrones is technically a defending Emmys champion, too. It’s won 45 Emmys, including this one for Outstanding Drama Series in 2015 and 2016, the last two times it was up for nomination.

Thrones wasn’t the best show on television last year, but it was certainly the most discussed. Then again, Handmaid’s Tale wasn’t the best either. That honor goes to The Americans, which went out with a bang in its final season. Maybe it’ll go out with a flourish in its final awards show too, but hey —it’s not like a show about Russian and American intelligence has any real relevance in 2018 anyway, right?

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