Summary

The article speculates on when Japan might reopen its borders to tourists, with a forecast for spring 2023, considering various pressures and the country's current political climate.

Abstract

The author provides a speculative forecast on Japan's border reopening, suggesting that it may occur in spring 2023. This prediction is based on the observation that many countries are moving towards living with the pandemic, and Japan faces competitive pressure as its rivals welcome tourists back. Despite the weak yen making travel to Japan more attractive, the border closure is seen as a political decision rather than a public health necessity. The article notes that many Japanese people are indifferent or even hostile to the return of mass tourism, and the government's hesitance is likely due to fear of being blamed for a resurgence of COVID-19 cases. The financial incentives of tourism, particularly during the cherry blossom season, are expected to eventually push the government to reopen the borders.

Opinions

The author believes that Japan's border policy is more political than health-focused.
There is a sentiment that the Japanese government is reluctant to fully reopen due to potential backlash over COVID-19 case increases.
The weak yen and financial opportunities from tourism are significant factors that could influence the reopening decision.
The author suggests that the Japanese public's ambivalence towards tourism may delay the reopening process.
The article implies that the government's trial with tour groups has been ineffective in bringing back substantial tourism numbers.
The author predicts that the cherry blossom season in spring 2023 will be a key motivator for Japan to reopen its borders due to the potential for significant tourism revenue.

Last Updated: Aug 18, 2022

When Will Japan Open Up?

My Latest Border Policy Forecasts

OK folks, allow me to start this one off by saying that everything that comes after this sentence is PURE speculation based on what I know about Japan.

Lately, I’ve been getting lots of DMs and comments from you guys asking when Japan is going to open its borders to tourists again. The truth of the matter is that no one actually knows because the decision is entirely dependent on the present circumstances with the coronavirus. With that stated though, let’s quickly review what we know…

Overseas, many countries are already in the endgame of the pandemic where people are largely now just “living with it” as best as they can.
Many of Japan’s top competitors are already welcoming tourists back thereby putting competitive pressure on the country.
The presently weak yen means that foreign visitors have a lot more purchasing power at their disposal than they did even half a year ago.
The lack of a decision to open the borders is entirely political and not something that is correlated with logical policies designed to keep people safe.

Unless you’ve been in Japan and closely following the situation, that last statement might come out of left field. I mean, surely Japan wants the tourists to come back, right?

Well, if my nonstop travels in Japan over these past few years are any evidence, I’d say that the large majority of people outside of the industry are perfectly fine right now. Sure, the hotels in Kyoto are suffering and offering their rooms are fire sale level prices but many of the residents are happy to have their city to themselves again.

Seeing as a large percentage of Japanese are ambivalent (or outright antagonistic in a few rare cases) to the legions of tourists again descending on Japan, there needs to be some other impetus to force the borders open.

Luckily, financial opportunities and outside pressure are two battering rams that have the potential to breach impregnable Japan’s border policies. After all, Japanese are able to go overseas freely right now and the backlash to that unfair arrangement is mounting day by day.

In addition to the pressure for Japan to open up, the weak yen is also something that the government can’t afford to ignore forever. Simply put, there is just too much money to be made by inbound tourism for the border to stay shut much longer.

Initially, I think the government thought that they could both monetize travelers and placate concerns by partially opening up for tour groups. As evidenced by the extremely low numbers of visitors though, North Korean-style trips aren’t the kinds of experiences people are after.

This then brings us back to the question of when Japan will open up again to tourists. While no one can say for sure, my bet is on spring 2023.

The reason for this is that there is continually mounting outside and financial pressure to do so but the Japanese government just isn’t quick enough to make a call by autumn. Since they are bound to miss that timing, we’ll be back in winter again which is typically a low season for tourism (at least when you discount snow sports). Thus, the decision will happen a few months after the publishing of this article.

As everyone who reads this blog likely already knows, the coming of spring heralds the arrival of the cherry blossoms. While the season does indeed last longer than many people realize, peak bloom for many locations comes around late March. Seeing as there is going to be a huge spike in demand to again visit Japan and see the cherry blossoms, I am betting that the potential of a financial windfall will be too great for the country to ignore.

Whether or not my intuition is right on this one is up for debate but one call that I think we can confidently make is that things won’t change by the fall of 2022. If anything, it will be later than I am expecting that the borders are again open.

Is it fair? No. Is there anything that people can do about it? Also no. At the end of the day, the only thing any of us can do is wait it out. As much as it sucks, Japan will still be the amazing place that it always has been when the borders reopen to international travelers.

Before closing this piece out, I want to end by reiterating that the current decision to keep the country isolated is entirely political. No one wants to be the one to open things up and then be scapegoated for an influx of coronavirus cases that probably would have happened anyway.

As hard as it may be, I implore you to not dislike Japan because of the present political predicament. Instead, direct that vitriol towards the current cabinet in office.

Until next time travelers…