What’s the Worst That Can Happen in Ukraine?

Well that would be the worst thing.

Years ago when seeking out some professional counseling for a family matter, our counselor said, “What’s the worst that could happen.” We then unpacked that rabbit hole. Mostly the point was our worst fears never get realized so why worry about them. And, even if they do, you deal with it and you’ll survive. That advice has served me well.

Selfishly, one of the things about the Ukrainian crisis that preoccupies me is what to do with my retirement funds. Do I get out of the market entirely or stay in? How low can it go? What is my volatility risk tolerance? Clearly, this is selfish thinking given the gravity of what is occurring on the world stage. I am also practical and do need to be prepared financially.

Which brings me back to “What is the worst that could happen?”

In this case, the worse case is truly catastrophic. Quite literally WWIII could occur and subsequently, nuclear arms could become engaged. This isn’t over dramatization. Whether one agrees that this is a possibility or not, I say confidently that we can agree we are now closer to it than we have ever been in this generation, possibly two.

If other countries, including my own, become involved militarily and operationally to support Ukraine things may escalate dramatically. If they then escalate and “go-nuclear” then my stock market position won’t matter. Nor should it.

I do have faith in good overcoming evil. Ukrainians and their leadership, have shown the world what good is. We must continue to rally around them and be prepared to invest further as bullies don’t stop when their first target falls.

However, our greatest hope may lie with the Russian people themselves.

My hope is the current path will lead to a rise of new leadership within Russia. In the vein of Peter the Great, call it the second Embassy; Russia’s acceptance of Western Europe’s ideals.

“Peter (the Great) returned to Russia determined to remold his country along Western lines. The old Muscovite state, isolated and introverted for centuries, would reach out to Europe and open itself to Europe. In a sense, the flow of effect was circular: the West affected Peter, the Tsar had a powerful impact upon Russia, and Russia, modernized and emergent, had a new and greater influence on Europe. For all three, therefore — Peter, Russia and Europe — the Great Embassy was a turning point.” ― Robert K. Massie, Peter the Great: His Life and World

“Peter the Great was probably the equal, in dedication, power and ruthlessness, of many of the most successful revolutionary or nationalist leaders. Yet he failed in his chief purpose, which was to turn Russia into a Western nation. And the reason he failed was that he did not infuse the Russian masses with some soul-stirring enthusiasm. He either did not think it necessary or did not know how to make of his purpose a holy cause.” — Eric Hoffer

The citizenry of Russia could solve this crisis better than anyone.