What’s Happening In Putin’s Head

An overview of a few possible scenarios with conclusions.

Obviously, it is not possible to see inside anyone’s head, but the current increasingly dangerous situation in Ukraine presses us all to at least try.

Being born in an Eastern European country that was occupied by the Soviet Union for many years, together with my long term experience and training in Human Resources gives me a unique, even if extremely limited insight, which might be useful as a tiny piece of the puzzle of what is going on in Putin’s head right now and how to deal with it. Let’s start with the widely agreed knowns.

What we already know about Putin

1. Putin’s objective in Ukraine is not going to happen (whatever it was) and he knows it already.
2. The Russian army has the capability to defeat the Ukrainian army sooner or later and when it does, the consequences of this are global and extremely negative.
3. Current weapon supplies from the West are not going to save Ukraine from defeat. They are mostly ammunition, personal gear, and handheld weapons. Almost no heavy weapons are being supplied.

Now, let’s follow with what I think I know together with my supporting statements.

What you may not know about Putin

1. Putin takes his role and mandate personally

In Russian politics, everything is personal. This kind of setting is very far from the common western distributed and thus very impersonal power model.

Despite the last 20 years of the carefully built image of the impersonal, rational, calculative, and predictive political face of Putin’s regime, if we look at the fundamental level — this is and always was a “one-man show.” Just like in feudal times when the personal and political were indivisible one/unity at least at the top. This kind of political and civilization setting is already very far from the common western, totally distributed, and thus very impersonal power model.

If we talk about power and I mean raw, bare, hard power — Putin does not listen to a diplomatic approach at this point. He sees diplomats as little poor employees at best because they are specifically trained to be emotionless, impersonal without any personal connection to the issue they’re addressing as compared to him, and most of all in his eyes without any real power. That’s why he always asks for negotiations with the American president directly because, in his eyes, this is a partner for him who also plays the game for all, thus has much to lose, he also has power over everything and if he loses, it hurts him personally.

Putin does not listen to diplomatic approach, he sees diplomats as little poor employees at best.

Western diplomats and western politicians are coming to him as representatives of their respective nations whereas he comes to them as a representative of his own power just like the kings did in medieval times. Obviously, they cannot be perceived as real discussion partners to him. Thus, contrary to basic western expectations, the more we try to use a diplomatic approach with Putin, or diplomats to solve his “personal power pet projects going wrong,” the more he is angry and unresponsive.

2. Putin is unresponsive to the West for a reason

Putin being currently unresponsive to the West is something we all look to remedy as soon as possible because this is the core problem from our point of view. Also, the West is wary of Nuclear war possibility, so that’s why we all try to push the dialogue through diplomacy (as this is believed to be the most careful approach) on Putin but furthermore, this approach cannot work for the reasons mentioned above.

We won’t make Putin responsive through diplomacy.

So, how to make Putin responsive again? Who does he respect? Who he will listen to or what kind of situation created by West makes him back down?

I argue that he needs to feel that this whole situation becomes truly personal to the West. What does that mean exactly? Showing willingness, resolute willingness to not only throw punches into his face in terms of strong sanctions and support for Ukraine but to also demonstrate, and I want to emphasize this — to demonstrate that the West is also willing to take great pain.

Putin needs to feel that this whole situation becomes very personal to the West. He needs to feel the West is also willing to take great sacrifices.

In fact, the more willingness to take the pain West demonstrates in the current situation, the more responsive will Putin become because in his “personal world” this is the strongest signal that the opponent is personally involved and ready to fight the cruel street fight with an unpredictable outcome. This will do both: soothe his ego and make him scared which are both prerequisites to make him responsive to West again.

The more willingness to take pain West demonstrates, the more responsive will Putin become.

What are the most defining professional experiences of Mr. Putin? I believe it’s his history as a KGB agent and a Judo black belt master. I strongly believe that the West should properly study and use the Judo rules, Judo spirit, and Judo ethics when dealing with Putin. This “judo diplomacy” would be a far more understandable technique, moreover, respected by Putin.

3. Putin needs to see the West suffer

To put it all together — what would be the right move against Putin which would make him responsive again?

In my opinion, it would be a total SWIFT ban on Russian banks which will stop all gas and oil flow and all payments flow between Europe/the West and Russia. Please, do not think that I don’t know how serious pain this would be for Europe. In fact, I personally dread this the most, but in terms of what I wrote above, this scenario equals a very personal fight. The fight where Putin would be immediately on his back struggling to breathe but his opponent — West went all out and is also receiving heavy damage.

If Putin sees the West make sacrifices in what he already considers a very personal fight, he will respect his opponent.

Thus like in Judo, both opponents fought bravely and both deserve respect even if one lost. They bow to each other and then go to the hospital to get their injuries treated. I believe this is the end game for this war which could be acceptable for both sides and could be the fastest and least costly in the final count.

Speculations about Putin’s internal motivations for starting this war

As I wrote at the beginning, Putin’s objective in Ukraine is not going to be achieved. Let us then speculate what was his internal motive and internal objection to make this outrageous all-out invasion. In fact, everybody is dumbstruck to answer this basic question, because the cost/benefit analysis is overwhelmingly in Russia’s disfavor regardless of which angle we look at it.

Russia as a country that will soon be bankrupt and become an international pariah, will seize control over the country (Ukraine) which will by the time be turned into a burning nothing. And this all at the cost of destroying Putin’s own army and risking prolonged and debilitating counterinsurgency.

So, let us put some hardcore hypotheses on the table. I think that Putin sees himself as a kind of a Biblical man, I mean literally, the chosen man from the last pages of the Bible — not an antichrist if this crossed your mind. As humorless and crazy as this might sound, there are some strong indications that this might be true at least partially.

Putin sees himself as a mesiah, the God’s chosen man from the last pages of the Bible.

Not only there exists this strong ideological narrative of Moscow as the Third and last final Rome pushed through everywhere by the Russian propaganda, but there also is a long-term and unexplainable strong push for Russian Orthodox ideology everywhere in Russia including the Russian army. And last but not least, let us not forget about this weird, mammoth army/church/monastery complex built outside Moscow, in Kubinka (as seen below) just a few years ago. This step is unexplainable by itself if we do not take it as a sign of Putin’s preparations for his biblical role which represents amalgamation and deification of State, Army, and Church.

If we believe that there is even a tiny bit of truth in this seemingly ridiculous speculation, then let us take it even further. I think Putin’s plan or his belief as a God's chosen man was to take and dissolve Ukraine in his new Roman empire (which should have been easily done by divine support) and his real target for the real next attack was the “decadent” and “weak” Europe.

Putin’s plan as a God’s chosen man was to dissolve Ukraine in his new Roman empire, but his real target for the next attack was ‘’the decadent and weak’’ Europe.

What supports the hypothesis above is the fact that Putin was carefully preparing for this war with the West (which he cannot stand) for years if not decades, all his plans of attack were very precise and planned to the tiny detail.

Luckily for us, his plan failed in its first step, and now Putin lost his personal objective in Ukraine. Even if all the speculations above are wrong, I do believe that he really lost his objective in Ukraine, and also I speculate that he completely alienated his Generals because he planned this operation without their consent.

As bad as this is for Putin, it can still give Ukraine a terribly bad ending too. If for nothing then as revenge for a quagmire Putin got in, thanks to their united fight. Let’s not forget Putin’s sadistic personality, so well documented with his killings of his enemies in the most horrible ways (Polonium, Novichok, and so on). There is no doubt that he would take real pleasure in the methodical and cruel killing of Ukrainian leaders opposing him on all levels of Ukrainian society. This genocidal tragedy is no doubt already brewing.

Final Conclusion

The West should keep talking to Putin, but we should talk to him in a language he understands and respects.

And as I argued in this article Putin does not have a personality of a diplomat, his professional background and also his personal values are not based on diplomacy and certainly not on western tradition diplomacy, therefore we should be willing to understand him more and adjust our language and our messages to his perception of power, which might appear crude to the West but certainly has its rules and strategy. Pardon my last statement, but you would surely talk and act differently with Klingons than with Vulcans in order to achieve the same objective.

This reflection was written by my good friend who wishes to stay anonymous, he presented me with the topic, his reflections, and conclusions which I’ve further expanded, structured, and edited to make it into this article.