What will the EU decide now against Moscow?

The European Union is moving towards the sixth package of sanctions

On April 30, the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen presented the sixth package of sanctions against Moscow to the ambassadors of the 27 Member States. This sixth group of measures against the Kremlin had been put on hold before the French elections, waiting with interest what the fate of Paris and then of all of Europe would be. With Macron’s victory and, later, Putin’s decision to cut gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, the discussion quickly resumed its course within Europe.

The areas of this package are mainly four, namely the products used for the construction of chemical weapons, the military involved in the war crimes conducted in Bucha, the banking system, and finally, the most important, the oil embargo. On the latter issue, the Union must in fact demonstrate now more than ever that it has common interests and wants to find shared solutions.

However, the first disagreements between the ambassadors would already have arisen when the Commission decided to follow Germany’s proposal in a rather faithful way. Berlin was in fact in favor of sanctions, but at the same time supported the need to give governments the necessary time to find alternative energy sources. This is why, in any case, the total ban will start only from 2023. This proposal was also supported by Romania, Hungary, and Slovakia, while von der Leyer will keep mediating with the various nations in the coming weeks by undertaking a series of bilateral talks.

The oil

Nevertheless, the long transition period towards a total embargo would have at the same time a positive side, namely the fact of deciding at that point “the irreversibility of sanctions”, as explained by some European diplomats.

Similarly, the 7 months that would pass from these days until the implementation of the measures would allow the Twenty-seven to be able to eliminate dependence on Russian crude oil, despite the difficulty of finding valid and lasting solutions in such a short time.

Yet, this intermediate period was not welcomed by all countries. Indeed, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania affirm “that is not enough”, wishing on their part less cautious positions and immediately stricter sanctions. In the meantime, however, the measures that Europe would like to introduce to discourage the export of Russian oil to third countries are interesting. In this context, Brussels proposes to the Member States not to issue European insurance policies or not to allow transit through the territory.

Despite the divergences, this sixth package still seems fully achievable. On Tuesday 3 May the Commission will formalize it, so as to allow it to then be approved by Coreper or the Committee of Permanent Representatives of the 27 governments. Finally, publication in the EU Official Journal is expected by next weekend.

How the embargo came about

By the time the European Commission presents the sixth package of measures to the governments of the twenty-seven Member States, the issue of the Russian oil embargo will be officially on the table. However, this path seems to have been somewhat discussed, not only within Europe but also within relations with Washington.

On 20 and 21 April, the G7 finance ministers gathered in the US capital for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund. In this context, the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen would have proposed in Brussels to establish a price cap on oil well below the current prices, rather than establishing a total freeze on exports.

This solution would have brought significant advantages. First, European countries would not have had to look for alternative sources in a short time, as supplies would not have been cut. Moreover, European economies would have had the opportunity to control and lower energy costs, while reducing Moscow’s revenues.

Furthermore, such a suggestion would have resolved a key point in the Russian oil issue. In fact, Russian crude oil can easily travel around the world by ship. Thereafter Moscow, bypassing European measures, could sell it at full price in Asia, Latin America, or Africa. If then the United States had also adopted the same price cap on oil together with Europe, they could have imposed sanctions, such as exclusion from the American market, on the nations of the world that would have decided to buy crude oil from the Kremlin at prices higher than those imposed.

However, the reaction of the Europeans did not take long. The idea that the United States can act so influentially in an extra-territorial way has not convinced the Chancelleries of the Twenty-Seven. Thus the only solution remained the one of the embargo, more precisely a gradual blockade to give the countries of the Union time to guarantee themselves alternative supplies.

Banks, chemical weapons, and newspapers

Finally, in addition to oil, the sixth package of sanctions against Moscow will also concern the banking system and the products necessary for the construction of chemical weapons. Even some newspapers, accused of spreading fake news and collusion with the Kremlin, will be banned.

With regard to the world of finance, three other Russian banks and one Belarusian will be excluded from the Swift circuit, namely Sberbank, Russian Agricultural Bank, Bank of Moscow, and Belinvest of Minsk. With regard to armaments, Europe will no longer sell products that could be used to manufacture war instruments and international investigations will be conducted against the Russian military following the war crimes committed in Bucha, whose images have traveled around the world.

However, it should be stressed that Gazprom Bank, the bank of the Russian giant that manages gas exports, will once again not be involved.

Sources I was inspired by to write this article:

• Stop al petrolio russo, ma solo dal 2023, published by Open Online
• Ue verso nuove sanzioni alla Russia, published by Il Sole 24 Ore
• La battaglia del gas accelera le sanzioni Ue contro il petrolio russo, published by Huffington Post
• Petrolio dalla Russia, la vera storia dell’embargo e lo strappo Usa-Europa, published by Il Corriere della Sera

I am an Italian student who tries every day to improve her English. I really like writing and studying in this language, also to be able to reach more people. However, I still often run into mistakes. So, if while reading my article you have found some, do not hesitate to contact me, either through a comment or a private note!