What will happen in the U.S. Supreme Court ?

Summary

The Colorado Supreme Court has ruled that Donald Trump is ineligible to hold office again due to his involvement in the Jan. 6 insurrection, a decision likely to be reviewed by the U.S. Supreme Court, which has a conservative majority including three justices appointed by Trump.

Abstract

Colorado's highest court has disqualified former President Donald J. Trump from running for office again, citing his role in the January 6 Capitol insurrection. This ruling sets the stage for a potential U.S. Supreme Court showdown, where Trump's political future may be decided. The Supreme Court, with a 6-to-3 conservative majority, including three justices appointed by Trump, faces significant pressure and scrutiny. The article posits that it would be highly irregular for someone involved in an insurrection against a legally elected president to be permitted to run for the presidency. While the article refrains from predicting the Supreme Court's decision, it suggests that Trump's candidacy in 2024 would be contentious and his potential victory would hinge on the Democratic Party's choice of candidate.

Opinions

The author believes it would be unusual for the Supreme Court to allow Trump to run for president given his encouragement of an insurrection.
There is an expectation that the Supreme Court, given its conservative majority and the inclusion of three justices appointed by Trump, might be inclined to rule against him due to the ethical implications and political pressure.
The author speculates that Trump's chances of winning the 2024 presidential election would be higher against the current President Biden than against another Democratic candidate.
The author does not provide a definitive answer on whether Trump will be allowed to run in 2024, acknowledging the uncertainty surrounding the Supreme Court's potential decision.

Donald Trump is ineligible to hold office again, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled

Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash

Today, the New York Times wrote:

Colorado’s top court ruled on Tuesday that former President Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding office again because he engaged in insurrection with his actions leading up to the Jan. 6 storming of the Capitol, an explosive ruling that is likely to put the basic contours of the 2024 election in the hands of the U.S. Supreme Court.

…

The U.S. Supreme Court has a 6-to-3 conservative majority, with three justices appointed by Mr. Trump himself, and it is already under extraordinary political pressure and scrutiny both for its rulings and its justices’ ethics.

So then, the big questions are:

4. What will happen if Trump is allowed to run for office in 2024?

I cannot answer the first two questions, but regarding the third question about whether the Supreme Court would decide that Trump can run for office, the answer is most likely no. It would be very unusual if a man who has encouraged an insurrection against the legally elected president was allowed to run for president and be elected president.

Regarding what will happen if Trump is allowed to run for office in 2024, it’s an open question whether Trump will win the election or not. It depends on what the Democrats do concerning their candidate for this election, as Trump’s chances are greater to win over Biden than another Democratic candidate.

DEMOCRACY

Donald Trump is ineligible to hold office again, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled

1. Will the three justices appointed by Mr. Trump himself allow him to run for president?

2. Will one or more of the other judges support him in running for president?

3. Will the Supreme Court decide that Trump can run for office?

4. What will happen if Trump is allowed to run for office in 2024?