What To Expect From A $3 Trillion Apple in 2022

Five big storylines to watch as the Cupertino tech giant heads to $3 trillion.

Apple is poised for a big 2022. We’ll likely see an iPhone 14, an array of new laptops and desktop computers, and perhaps the company’s long-awaited mixed reality device. Apple is also inches away from a $3 trillion valuation, which it may well reach today.

Apple’s 2022 won’t be a totally smooth ride, however. Outsized expectations, increased scrutiny from antitrust regulators, supply chain issues, and a persisting Covid threat will all factor in as Apple tries to keep pace with its masterful 2021 performance.

Here are five big Apple storylines I’m watching as 2022 gets underway:

$3 Trillion Market Cap: A Blessing And Curse It took Apple four decades to reach a $1 trillion market cap in 2018, two more years to reach $2 trillion in 2020, and it’s poised to hit $3 trillion in the early months of 2022. The stock’s massive ascent is a blessing and a curse. On the positive side, Apple is one of the surest bets on Wall Street, it rose 34% in 2021, handily beating the S&P 500. On the flip side, Apple will have to justify outsized expectations, which could be difficult in the face of lower than anticipated demand for iPhone and supply chain challenges.

Lots Of New Products Apple is expected to introduce a bunch of new products this year, including the iPhone 14 and new laptops and desktops with Apple-designed chips. We may also see Apple introduce a mixed reality headset, combining VR and AR, which would be an exciting new play in a major, emerging category. Such a headset would also put Apple and Meta in direct competition, which could heat up their escalating war even further. (more below)

Increased Antitrust Scrutiny Governments are zeroing in on Apple’s anticompetitive practices. There’s a growing consensus that Apple’s 30% App Store “tax” is unsustainable, and pressure from well-liked developers like Spotify and Epic is adding up. Apple is now dealing with antitrust inquiries in the U.K., India, and elsewhere. It’s also facing a more aggressive antitrust body in the U.S. Apple is well-positioned to fight its case, but a few losses could have serious ramifications.

An Escalating Battle With Meta Apple has made Meta’s life hell in recent years, culminating with its “Ask App Not to Track” option in iOS 14.5 that effectively severed Meta advertisers’ ability to measure their campaigns. Toward the end of 2021, Meta hit back. It poached about 100 Apple engineers, per Bloomberg, which caused Apple to issue rare six-figure retention bonuses. This multi-front war between the two companies is going to escalate in 2022 and could impact their bottom lines. If Apple introduces a mixed-reality headset, it will amplify the bad blood tenfold.

Covid Persists The big, unexpected Omicron wave is disrupting Apple’s business, causing it to close about 20 stores as positivity rates skyrocket. Apple may benefit as more people accept the semi-permanence of working from home and upgrade their devices. But Covid is a wildcard and continues to disrupt the supply chain. How Apple responds to this wave — and potentially future ones — will impact the course of its year.

I stopped by CNBC’s Worldwide Exchange this morning to discuss Apple’s prospects in the New Year:

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