Business | Self Improvement

What Prepared Us For The Coming Collapse?

It’s Another Black Swan event.

A Black Swan event is an occurrence that is considered unique because of how rare and unpredictable it is. It usually also has serious consequences.

The theory of a Black Swan event has existed for centuries because we generally expect all swans to be white. When a black one appears, it’s considered more remarkable than it actually is.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses this theory in The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.

He developed the theory to explain how such a rare event isn’t predictable and how we tend to hold a bias that blinds us to their effect on historical events.

“I’m particularly interested in black swan events: unprecedented surprises that destroy the conventional wisdom about how the world works.” Paolo Bacigalupi

Taleb recommends building robustness into systems in order to protect from these events. He later goes on to identify ten principles for building robustness. He advocates remaking the system before it remakes itself through a crisis and avoiding complexity in systems.

The most recent pandemic is a Black Swan event.

Most of the environmental events occurring are considered black swan events as well. The environment is fragile, and we are seeing more unexpected extreme weather events around the globe.

The pandemic was sudden, unexpected, and changed our way of life.

Forest fires and flooding are more prevalent and larger than we have experienced. They are no longer once in a lifetime events. They’re more severe and more frequent.

In many ways, the pandemic and environmental extremes are the same.

Environmental events aren’t as rare as they used to be. They are somewhat expected now. Heat records, size of hurricanes, the number of wildfires, and the number and severity of floods are all increasing.

Global warming is a real thing. There is a consensus among most scientists.

“Our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this planet. We all breathe the same air. We all cherish our children’s future. And we are all mortal.” John F. Kennedy

It’s easier to ignore an event if it isn’t happening near you. Smoke from forest fires affects surrounding countries, but when the fires are extinguished, life goes on.

We have short memories and we are in denial.

The pandemic has prepared us for the coming environmental collapse in ways we are just beginning to realise.

Our thinking has shifted.

Some existing institutions are well-positioned to pivot with circumstances as required. Many stores will not.

This is the beginning of more changes to come, so we must continue to prepare by creating ways to work together on solutions.

Our response to this Pandemic was a training run.

It’s clear to us that the world isn’t as safe as we thought it was. We aren’t in control. The pandemic was a warning and many of us are starting to pay attention.

The pandemic’s effect was felt in every country and required everyone to make changes to their day to day behavior.

It wasn’t a localized environmental event, it happened to everyone, all around the world.

Businesses and employees alike had to find ways to pivot as the pandemic changed the face of how we exist in the world.

It’s going to happen again. Be prepared.

Going forward, we need remain flexible and prepared to adapt to changes quickly and provide solutions to a changing environment.

Tag me @treelangdon or add a message to this post if you’d like to connect. I’m a ‘Top Writer’ in Poetry on Medium. Find me on Twitter and Facebook.