What Is Happening between Russia and Ukraine

Summary

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine stems from cultural similarities yet a desire for economic prosperity and governance reform, leading Ukraine to seek closer ties with the EU and provoking Russia's annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in the east.

Abstract

Russia and Ukraine share a close cultural heritage, akin to that of Spain and Portugal, with Ukrainians often fluent in Russian. Historically, under the USSR, the region functioned under a single Soviet regime that suppressed national issues. Ukraine's independence in 1991 was initially nominal, with Moscow still exerting influence. However, the 2014 Maidan protests marked a pivot towards the European Union, prompting Russia to assert control over pro-Russian regions in Ukraine. The driving force behind Ukraine's shift westward is economic, as Ukrainians aspire to replicate the success of countries like Poland, which has thrived since joining the EU. Ukrainians, having witnessed the economic improvements in EU countries, seek to escape the oligarchic and corrupt Russian model. Despite aspirations to join the EU, NATO membership remains contentious, with Moscow vehemently opposing the presence of NATO troops near its borders, posing a significant barrier to Ukraine's ambitions.

Opinions

The cultural proximity between Russia and Ukraine is likened to that of neighboring countries with shared linguistic and historical ties, yet there is a distinct desire for economic and political change in Ukraine.
The Soviet era is viewed as a time when national identities were suppressed under a unified Soviet regime.
Ukraine's independence has been a gradual process, with the 2014 Maidan protests catalyzing a definitive move towards European integration and away from Russian influence.
The loss of Crimea and control over Donetsk and Lugansk is seen as Russia's retaliation for Ukraine's pro-EU stance.
There is a clear preference for the economic models of EU countries, particularly Poland, which is perceived as more successful than the Russian model of governance.
The prospect of Ukraine joining NATO is considered highly unlikely and a potential catalyst for war, given Russia's staunch opposition to NATO's eastward expansion.
Ukraine's goal is to emulate the economic success of EU members like Poland while maintaining a non-NATO status similar to Finland's, which will require significant reform and progress.

I’ll give you a simplified answer.

On a cultural level, Russia and Ukraine are two nations similar to Spain and Portugal or Brazil and Argentina. Ukrainian and Russian are different but close languages.

Also, most Ukrainians are proficient in the Russian language. So it would be something like the Dutch speak Dutch, but almost everyone has English as their second language.

To complicate it even more, it is not that they are bilingual Ukrainian-Russian. In the eastern half of the country, Russian is the language frequently used in the street and at home (although the Ukrainian language, which is official in schools, is known). Thus, it is a de facto binational-Ukrainian-Russian state, but, I repeat, with close cultures.

The problem in the USSR did not exist. There was only one indisputable regime: the Soviet and national issues were child’s play as long as it did not go out of the frame.

The formal independence of Ukraine in 1991 was always cosmetic, as today it remains that of Belarus, for example, as they continued to obey the dictates of Moscow.

The absolute independence of Ukraine occurred in 2014 when Maidan provoked a demand for a pro-EU alignment with Russia. The Russian punishment, for now, was to take away control of Donetsk, Lugansk (east), and Crimea, which were more pro-Russian areas, within those two Ukrainian souls.

But why get into this mess with the big Russian when you are culturally and geographically close to Russia, much more intimate than the EU?

The answer is the economy, not the culture. Soviet propaganda could work for a time, but no longer.

They know the Russian model: oligarchy, chieftaincy, and corruption. It would not be a big problem if it worked. They have experienced it since the days of the pre-Soviet Russian Empire, of which Ukraine was a part.

But now, they see the tremendous economic improvement of their Polish cousins and want to imitate them.

They emigrate to Warsaw, Milan, Madrid, Paris, and Berlin and no longer swallow the apparent differences with their cities or Russian cities (apart from the propaganda windows of Moscow and Spb).

They want to live better, without oligarchies or corruption, they see entering the EU as a possibility of real and effective change.

They have decided to imitate Poland in its success since joining the EU and have started their process to enter the club — which will cost them quite a few exams to pass, as they are equal to or worse than Romania.

In NATO, I don’t think they dare or let them if they don’t want a real war. Moscow will never allow NATO troops within 500kms of Moscow. Before allowing that, they will invade Ukraine.

So its model for 2050 is to be a Poland without being in NATO, like Finland: in the EU but not in NATO. So they have a lot of work to do.