What Happens Now That George Santos is Ejected from the House?

The Republicans slip farther from a workable majority

Representative George Santos, whose history of repeated and contradictory lies and twenty-three count federal indictment for crimes ranging from aggravated wire fraud, money laundering, stealing public funds, lying on federal disclosure forms, aggravated identity theft, access device fraud, theft of credit card information, false statements to the Federal Election Commission and falsifying records to obstruct the commission, has been expelled from the United States House of Representatives. A House Ethics Committee report found “substantial evidence” Santos not only broke congressional rules but committed fraud, including using campaign money to buy a designer Hermès bag, subscriptions to an adults-only site, Botox treatments, and other personal uses.

The motion required a two-thirds vote to expel. Santos, whose charges and details of the case against him look less like the typical complexities of a political scandal and more like those of a common grifter and serial liar, lost his seat in the House after a bipartisan vote of 311 to 114 (with two voting present). He is the first person expelled without either a conviction for a federal crime or direct ties to the Confederacy.

“To hell with this place,” he said after his ouster.

Now what?

Speaker Mike Johnson, in keeping with his style as Speaker, left the decision whether to expel Santos to the consciences of his colleagues in the Republican caucus. 105 chose to do so, joining 206 Democrats. Johnson, however, refused to do so. Neither did most of the Republican leadership. Perhaps Johnson’s vote was a matter of principle. Just as likely it was a reflection of the expected results of Santos’ expulsion for the shaky Republican majority in the House.

By law in the State of New York, Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul has ten days to announce a special election to fill the vacancy left by Santos. Following the announcement, the special election will be held “not less than seventy nor more than eighty days” from the date of her proclamation.

Santos flipped the seat from Blue to Red during the last election, playing a key role in establishing the thin five-seat margin of control for Republicans in the House. Now that Santos is out, the seat is “open” and the margin is only four seats. Democrats under minority leader Hakim Jeffries have a record of standing together. Republicans have found it difficult to rule the House already, as established in the McCarthy debacle and the circus surrounding the search for a replacement for him as Speaker. When Santos won this previously Democratic district as a Republican, it was one of only a handful of districts that President Joe Biden won in 2020 that was in Republican hands. There is no assurance it won’t slip back to the Democrats in the special election, or that it won’t remain in Democratic hands during the likely Trump-Biden rematch in 2024.

The next election

Generally, if a candidate wins in a special election, it bodes well for their chances of winning the general election.

Santos’ district represents parts of New York’s Long Island and Queens. Currently, the Cook Political Report rates the race as “Lean D.” More than ten candidates have announced a bid for the seat, including former Rep. Tom Suozzi, who represented the district until Santos won in 2022. Suozzi had announced he would not seek reelection during the 2022 cycle and ran for the Democratic nomination for New York governor. He lost to Hochul. Now he is in a strong position to take his old job back.

Other candidates vying for Santos’ seat include Anna Kaplan, a Democrat and former New York State Senator. Mike Sapraicone, a retired NYPD detective and Republican candidate running for the third congressional district wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter, “I think it’s high time we start moving on from Santos.”

Given the law in New York, the special election will occur in March. Given Suozzi’s record of success in the district, he will likely win the special election. Then, the House will be at its full size of 435 voting seats: 214 Democrats and 221 Republicans. If four Republicans refuse to vote with their bloc (or seven vote “present” or miss a vote), they fail to pass legislation. The Republican majority in the House, under pressure from internal divisions, begins to collapse. Republicans, who have already shown that so many of their members aren’t interested in governing, will be that much closer to being unable to do so.

Mike Johnson, already criticized for following McCarthy’s path of cooperating with Democrats to prevent a government shutdown, will be in an even greater bind. If he is removed by the “lemmings in suicide vests” of the Freedom Caucus, the Republicans will have demonstrated that they can not be trusted with the levers of power. Some members will be fine with that: they don’t want to govern, anyway. But in that case, the majority of voters will respond by keeping Republicans out of the majority in the House for at least a decade, and encourage the political realignment this country desperately needs.