What Happens If Russia Invades Ukraine?

Tensions are building upon the Russian border with Ukraine. President Joe Biden and prime minister Boris Johnson are expecting Russia to invade anytime now. We are going to talk about how this crisis is going to impact the world economy.
Stock Market & Crypto
On the 21st of January, Biden announced that he would be sending troops to eastern Europe. In response, Bitcoin fell 10%, and Ethereum lost 14% in one day. Intraday, the Nasdaq 100 was down 5%.
On the 11th of February, Biden said that he expects Russia to invade anytime. This caused the Nasdaq the fall 3%. This suggests that there is a direct correlation between the Ukraine conflict and the stock market.
Gas
Europe is highly dependent on the gas coming from Russia. The entire European union imports on average 38% of their gas from Russia with some countries importing 80%. If Russia invades, Europe will sanction Russia. They will most likely respond by cutting gas supply to Europe. This will cause inflation to rise, which encourage the central banks to raise interest rates.
However, Russia won’t be able to cut the gas supply off for a long time. Most of their income comes from exporting gas. Without it, they won’t be able to finance their potential war.
Grain
Beyond oil and gas, Russia is the world’s largest grain exporter. China fears a shortage of grain coming from Russia, so they are negotiating with American grain producers. Grain futures are an excellent way to measure the tensions in the world. This could also lead to more inflation.
Final Thoughts
It is likely that Russia will invade Ukraine in the future. Putin sees Ukraine as the missing part of the Soviet Union and that without it, they cannot go back to their glorious days. Ukraine is also a buffer state between NATO and Russia. Putin fears the spread of democracy in Russia. He fears democracy so much that he has poisoned adversary Navalny.
Whilst Russia is saying they are withdrawing troops, estimates show that they are adding them. This week there are estimated to be 190 000 soldiers at the border, up from 130 000 last week.
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