What Happens If Bernie Wins The First Three States?

It’s a real possibility and it could mean an early end to the Democratic primary

We are just seventeen days away from the Iowa Caucus and it looks like Senator Bernie Sanders may be on his way to winning there. Since returning to the campaign trail from a heart attack in October, Bernie has surged in polling and in betting markets. And now, he is the favorite in Iowa and New Hampshire, who votes just eight days later.

The most recent Des Moines Register poll shows Bernie on top, ahead of his next closest opponent, Elizabeth Warren by three points. This poll is considered the gold standard and has called every Democratic winner there since 1988. By no means is he in the clear just yet, but you have to believe with his campaign’s organization and enthusiasm, he is in a really good spot.

Betting markets show Sanders as the favorite in both Iowa and New Hampshire. The following contest takes place in Nevada on February 22nd. Biden and Bernie are neck-and-neck there as well, with Sanders recently overtaking the top spot after being endorsed by the Clark County Black Caucus on Thursday.

If there is one candidate who is positioned to win all of the first three States, it’s Bernie Sanders. The question then becomes — can he be stopped?

The all-important fourth State is South Carolina. Here, Joe Biden is the favorite due to his strong support with older black voters. However, if Biden loses the first three states, do voters think about abandoning him? Suddenly, questions start to creep in whether he can win the primary, let alone defeat Trump. The results in South Carolina will tell us all we need to know about the race.

Can Bernie win South Carolina?

It is a definite longshot for Bernie to win in the Palmetto State. Currently, betting markets give him a 14% chance for victory, compared with Biden at 82%. Winning Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada may begin to move those numbers a bit.

Recent polling from Morning Consult showed that the gap between Biden and Sanders with black voters is not as great as it once was. Biden only leads by 15 points nationally in that category. After three wins, we could see the gap narrow even further. Additionally, Bernie already leads with millennial and Gen Z African Americans. Getting the older bloc of voters is the final step.

Will he win in South Carolina? Probably not. Does he have an outside shot? Definitely. If he manages to win there, I think you can call the race. If Biden can’t win there, he can’t win anywhere.

Super Tuesday and Beyond

Let’s proceed with the hypothetical that Bernie loses South Carolina to Biden by five points. He beat the projections but came up a little short. We now head into Super Tuesday on March 3rd. Fourteen states vote that day and we will have a clear frontrunner after the votes are counted. The states voting that day are Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah.

Early polling has been done in a lot of these states. Bernie has led consistently in the largest state of the bunch, California. This is driven by his strong support among Latino voters. The latest Morning Consult poll had him up ten points among Latinos over Biden. California will important for gathering a large number of delegates and a win there is huge.

In addition to California, Bernie is a favorite in Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, Oklahoma, and Utah. That’s six states total and Massachusetts could be up for grabs if Warren’s campaign tanks. Texas could also be in play because of his Latino support.

I suspect after Super Tuesday, we will be down to two candidates essentially — Bernie and Biden. From there, states like Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin all become quite important. Sanders won two of those in 2016 and I believe he has a great chance at winning at least two this time around.

What to Look For

The idea that Bernie Sanders could win the first three states in February scares the hell out of the establishment. We already see the media panicking as they attempt to smear Bernie and drag out his dustup with Elizabeth Warren. I don’t think it’s going to work this time. Democratic voters love Bernie Sanders. He has the highest favorability among them and he also fares best with Independents in head-to-head polling against Trump.

Joe Biden’s campaign lacks any type of enthusiasm and his support is soft, meaning three early losses have the potential to crater his campaign. If Bernie’s theory of getting young people and unlikely voters out to the polls, he will remove any doubt of him becoming the nominee.

Iowa, Nevada, and South Carolina will give us an idea of the true strength of Bernie’s grassroots campaign.

• Iowa will reveal how robust Bernie’s ground game and organization are. A dominant win there is not out of the realm of possibilities.
• Nevada is the first state with some real diversity. Is Bernie’s support among Latinos as strong as the polling says? If it is, he will win there.
• South Carolina will tell us if he closed the gap enough with black voters to make it close or even win. Winning the prior states would certainly help.

The bottom line, if Sanders wins the first four states, it’s a wrap. The momentum and enthusiasm would be unstoppable. It will be easy for voters to leave Biden in droves because there is little excitement there. The only reason voters are hanging on to Biden is that they think he can win, not that they want him to win. Bernie can dismantle that idea in Nevada and South Carolina. And as polling has shown throughout, a plurality of Biden voters pick Sanders as their second choice.

Iowa is approaching fast and that could be the start of the revolution.