What Does the Jabari Parker Injury Mean?

Jabari Parker is out 12 months with a second torn ACL. What happens now for the Milwaukee Bucks?

A ripple of sadness went around NBA social media Thursday afternoon when news broke that Jabari Parker had suffered his second ACL tear in two years.

It’s a devastating blow for a young rising star who was really coming into his own this season, especially this one in particular, who had only recently recovered fully from his first ACL tear.

So what does it all mean for Parker, for the Milwaukee Bucks, and for the rest of the NBA?

1. This sucks

Honestly, that could just be the whole article. This totally sucks.

Jabari Parker was having a serious breakout season and was a major contender for Most Improved Player. Just today, he was the feature of a brilliant piece by The Ringer’s Jordan Ritter on his NBA journey. Now, he’s out for the rest of this season and, most likely, well into next season as well.

Parker was finally looking healthy after tearing his ACL just barely two years ago in December 2015. He had been named Rookie of the Month for the NBA’s opening month before the injury cost him most of his rookie campaign and the start of the following season. This year, his spring and athleticism had fully returned, and he was playing 34 minutes a game and averaging over 20 points and 6 rebounds a game for the Bucks with a nifty 37 percent three-point shot in his arsenal as well.

Khris Middleton had finally just returned Wednesday night for the first time all season, giving Milwaukee their trio of young stars in time to make a presumed run over the second half of the season. The timing of the new Parker injury feels all the more cruel.

And I should mention that it’s troubling to see recurring knee injuries in a league that depends so much on explosion and athleticism. This does not mean Jabari Parker is “injury-prone,” but it does mean two knee surgeries before the age of 22, and that’s never a good thing. I don’t need to start listing names for you to think of many would-have-been NBA stars who saw bright young careers derailed by repeated injury.

This sucks. This just completely sucks. That’s the story, more than anything else.

2. Milwaukee’s playoff hopes are likely gone

Unfortunately, the rest of the NBA is not going to stop and mourn the loss of Jabari Parker. Milwaukee’s loss is some other Eastern Conference team’s gain.

The Bucks sit at 22–29, a 35–win pace. After starting out the season pretty well, they have lost eight of their last ten and were looking forward to getting their trio of stars together in the lineup.

Despite Parker’s season-ending injury, all hope is not lost for Milwaukee. His minutes will largely be absorbed by Khris Middleton, which is about as good of a trade-off as you could hope for. But the goal was to add 30+ minutes of Middleton to a lineup that needed it, not substitute Middletown for Parker.

Mirza Teletovic is a nice four who helps space out the poor-shooting Milwaukee offense a bit, but he doesn’t bring any of the dynamism or playmaking of Parker. Someone like Greg Monroe could take on a larger role, though that changes the style Milwaukee is trying to play. New pickup Spencer Hawes could try some stretch minutes.

Rookie Thon Maker could be thrust into another new, different role, which would be interesting. Maker is incredibly raw and not ready for big NBA minutes, but his versatile size and skill set is unique. This could be an opportunity to put him in a role he might not have otherwise filled — much like what the Bucks did with Giannis Antetokounmpo with all of their point guard injuries last spring. The Bucks’ gamble with Antetokounmpo has obviously turned out pretty well.

Still, Teletovic, Monroe, and Maker aren’t Parker, and this Bucks team is going to struggle to stay in any sort of playoff hunt now without Parker’s steady scoring and presence in the lineup each night. They’ll also lose a ton of the versatility that made this roster so unique. Milwaukee would likely need to win about 18 of their final 31 games to have a good shot at making the playoffs. That’s not impossible, but it’s certainly not probable.

3. The Eastern Conference playoff picture gets a bit clearer

All of a sudden, the muddy East is starting to clear up a bit. The eight Eastern playoff teams right now would be Cleveland, Boston, Washington, Toronto, Atlanta, Indiana, Chicago, and Detroit. You can certainly count on those first four being there, and both Atlanta and Indiana are far enough ahead of their watered-down competition to land spots in the postseason as well.

That leaves Chicago and Detroit leading the pack for the final two seeds, with Charlotte, Miami, Milwaukee, New York, Orlando, and Philadelphia next in line. Sorry, Brooklyn.

Outside of Miami, the rest of those teams on the outside appear to be moving in the wrong direction. The Knicks may trade Melo soon and hit the rebuild option. Philly has slowed down after a great run with Embiid sidelined. Orlando hasn’t fully put the pieces together and may be ready to sell assets. Milwaukee is a long shot now, too.

So we’re likely down to the Bulls, Pistons, Hornets, and Heat fighting for two spots. Suddenly, those teams along with the Hawks and Pacers may slide toward buying players, while the rest should probably start selling. And the top two slots out East become a bit more valuable too, so there’s no rest for the weary in Cleveland.

4. Milwaukee could become a seller

That depends on how much the Bucks like their chances to stick around the race for the eighth seed, but there’s probably not going to be any major moves. They certainly shouldn’t make a panic move to grab a piece to fill Parker’s spot in the lineup and give up a long-term asset or draft pick.

You’ll remember Milwaukee just added Spencer Hawes and Roy Hibbert a week ago to an already-crowded big man rotation. Our own Keith P. Smith at 16 Wins A Ring reported that a second move involving either John Henson or Greg Monroe was likely in order, and that made sense.

There are now more available minutes near the basket, so that could lead Milwaukee to stand pat and wait for Parker to come back next season. However, it still makes sense to gauge the trade market for Greg Monroe. He’s a valuable player and a strong post scorer, and he’s now more valuable on another roster. Trading him would give Milwaukee a chance to experiment more with Thon Maker at center, and it would also cut out the possibility of Monroe picking up his player option and eating up some of their salary next season.

Remember, Parker is probably going to miss around 12 months with this injury, and ACL injuries usually take closer to two years for a full recovery. Milwaukee could be missing Parker completely for anywhere from 25 to 50 games next season, and they won’t have him at 100 percent even when he’s back. Not contending for the playoffs this year is okay, but missing next year as well is out of the question. Milwaukee may need to move Monroe, even for a lowball offer, just to free up some money to spend this offseason.

Outside of Monroe, there’s not much to see here. Veterans like Jason Terry or Michael Beasley could theoretically move to another team, but they’re not going to move the needle on a trade return at their ages. This is basically the Bucks team moving forward this season.

5. Long term, Milwaukee is not affected that badly

Honestly, Parker’s injury does not affect the Bucks as much as you’d think. Hopefully, Parker is able to rehabilitate and come back better than ever from his ACL injury. He’s already done that once, so that gives hope for a full recovery.

The Bucks would have loved a playoff berth this year, but they were never going to win the 2017 championship. Their window is a year or two away, and Parker should be back healthy by then. Just in time for teams like Cleveland and Toronto to see their stars move to the wrong side of their primes.

Milwaukee’s young core are all under contract through at least the 2018–19 season. That includes Antetokounmpo, Middleton, Maker, Henson, Teletovic, Malcolm Brogdon, and Matthew Dellavedova.

The one player that doesn’t include? Jabari Parker.

Like the others from the 2014 draft class, Parker was set to negotiate his first major extension this summer. He would have been eligible for a four-year maximum contract of around $110 million (pending cap), and you have to believe he’d have gotten it, or at least pretty close.

Now, the equation changes. That’s unfortunate, and it’s not fair, but it’s the reality. The same math will be happening in Minnesota with the Zach LaVine injury, though Parker had established himself as more of a sure thing than LaVine by now. Now, both Milwaukee and Parker are in a position of not entirely knowing which Jabari Parker they’re going to get for the next 4+ years. It’s possible that could lead the sides to hold off on an extension for a year.

But, like LaVine, it’s possible this injury could represent a chance for Milwaukee to save a bit of money here. If you’re the Bucks, you’re reasonably certain that Parker should come back healthy and be your second young star by the 2018–19 season. What if you offer Parker something like four years and $80 or $90 million?

Parker could certainly turn it down, bet on himself, and hope he scores a max deal a year later. But with two major knee injuries now, is that a risk he’d be willing to take? If the upside is gaining $20 or $30 million, that’s nothing to sneeze at, but there’s a much bigger difference from $0 to $80 million than from $80 to $110 million. $80 million is life-changing money, even if it doesn’t change your life quite as much as $110 million. That’s a deal Parker would at least have to consider.

That’s a bummer for Parker. It’s never fun for a player to potentially be underpaid, and Parker has been such a blessing on his community back home in Chicago. It would be great to see him with as much money as possible to keep making a difference there.

For Milwaukee, though they’d certainly prefer to have Parker healthy now, his injury could represent some hidden blessings long-term. If they end up agreeing to a slightly smaller extension, that’s an extra $5 to $8 million a year to spend elsewhere. That will help surround their already-talented young core with even better players.

And as much as the Bucks would have loved to make the playoffs this year, they’re currently only four games out of “contention” for the number three draft slot. While some of their peer teams may improve in the second half of the season, Milwaukee could move in the other direction. That stinks for now, but if it winds up giving the Bucks one more great draft pick in the 5 to 7 range of a loaded draft, that’s one more possible star to add to this young core.

The Jabari Parker injury sucks, and it’s a sad day for Bucks and hoops fans. Milwaukee’s immediate future just got a lot gloomier.

But with any luck, and with a full recovery for Jabari Parker, the Bucks could find themselves with an even brighter future further down the road. It’s just going to take even more hard work and patience to get there.