Week 16 NFL Picks against the Spread

Saturday football is back! Week 16 power rankings and ATS picks for every game, including the NFL betting lock of the season!

SATURDAY NFL FOOTBALL IS BACK! With the college season wrapped and headed to bowl festivities, that means it’s time for holiday Saturday NFL games, and this year we get four straight Saturdays of NFL games. This Saturday is an especially fun kickoff, with all three games featuring teams at or above .500, all but one of them still in the playoff hunt. The Texans clinch to a playoff berth, the Bills and Patriots battle for the division crown, and the 49ers and Rams are the nightcap in a clash of genius coaches.

The Sunday slate is markedly lighter with so many good teams playing Saturday, but that’s a small price to pay for a full weekend of holiday football. Motivation matters this time of year. Which of these teams have a playoff spot or seeding on the line, and who’s already in Christmas mode?

We went 3–0 on best bets last week, and perhaps that’s what led me to this week’s LOCK OF THE YEAR. I’ve had this one circled for weeks, and it comes in the NFC East showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys. Let’s get to our Week 16 power rankings and picks for every game!

WEEK 16 POWER RANKINGS

TIER I — CREME DE LA CREME

1. Baltimore Ravens 12–2 (Last week: 1)

TIER II — THE CONTENDERS ARE CLEAR NOW

2. New Orleans Saints 11–3 (3) 3. San Francisco 49ers 11–3 (2) 4. Kansas City Chiefs 10–4 (4) 5. New England Patriots 11–3 (5)

TIER III — PERFECT FRONT RUNNERS

6. Seattle Seahawks 11–3 (6) 7. Minnesota Vikings 10–4 (7) 8. Green Bay Packers 11–3 (8) 9. Buffalo Bills 10–4 (10)

TIER IV — BRING ON WILDCARD WEEKEND

10. Houston Texans 9–5 (12) 11. Dallas Cowboys 7–7 (11) 12. Tennessee Titans 8–6 (9) 13. Los Angeles Rams 8–6 (11) 14. Pittsburgh Steelers 8–6 (13) 15. Philadelphia Eagles 7–7 (17)

TIER V — READY TO RUIN SOMEONE’S DECEMBER

16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7–7 (18) 17. Atlanta Falcons 5–9 (22) 18. Indianapolis Colts 6–8 (15) 19. Chicago Bears 7–7 (16) 20. Oakland Raiders 6–8 (19) 21. Cleveland Browns 6–8 (20) 22. Los Angeles Chargers 5–9 (21)

TIER VI — SEE YOU IN 2020

23. Arizona Cardinals 4–9–1 (24) 24. Denver Broncos 5–9 (23) 25. Jacksonville Jaguars 5–9 (26) 26. Carolina Panthers 5–9 (25) 27. New York Jets 5–9 (27) 28. Detroit Lions 3–10–1 (29)

TIER VII — THE FISH TANK

29. New York Giants 3–11 (32) 30. Miami Dolphins 3–11 (28) 31. Washington Haskins 3–11 (30) 32. Cincinnati Bengals 1–13 (31)

THREE SATURDAY GAMES!!

Houston -1 at Tampa Bay

It’s perfect that this game kicks off our Saturday football because it feels exactly like the opening AFC playoff game we get every year. These teams are utterly unpredictable. Jameis Winston leads the NFL in passing yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. What do you even do with that? Houston saved their season in Tennessee last week. Another W wins the division and secures a home playoff game.

Buffalo +7 at New England

Tom Brady is 31–3 lifetime against the Buffalo Bills. That’s pretty good. But Brady is also ancient and remarkably average now. Aren’t these teams eerily similar, if you think about it? They’re fantastic defenses getting the most out of mismatched rosters thanks to brilliant coaching, and they have very little offense to offer and a team winning in spite of their quarterback, not because of him. Did I just compare Tom Brady to Josh Allen? Oh, yeah, baby. These teams have gone under a combined 20 of 28 games. Expect a lot of defense, and that’s enough to take the seven points and keep it close.

Los Angeles Rams +6.5 at San Francisco

This is the best and most important game of the week, so obviously it’s on NFL Network on Saturday night. The Rams need to win out to make the playoffs (and get help), while the 49ers need to win out to earn a bye week and possible 1-seed. Truthfully I think L.A. +240 to win is probably the best bet since they only have to win this game 30% of the time for that to pay out. But here’s my question: what are the Rams better at? They’re not better on defense. They don’t run the ball better. The coaching schemes aren’t better this year. Neither is the quarterback. What are the Rams better at, other than having Aaron Donald? I think this is a close, exciting game, but I’m counting on San Francisco to get the win.

THE STAY AWAYS

Denver -6 vs Detroit

The bad part about good Saturday football is that we’re left with a lot of pretty ugly Sunday ball. All eight teams in this section have basically nothing left to play for but dignity. The Lions have covered once since October, and that was the annual Thanksgiving game. They’re already in offseason mode.

Indianapolis -6.5 vs Carolina

Carolina is giving rookie Will Grier his first start on the road, so that at least gives us something to watch in this game. Unfortunately the Panthers still have no run defense, and the Colts should be able to run the ball and control the clock. They can technically still win the division if Houston loses Saturday, so they could have something left to play for.

Atlanta -6.5 vs Jacksonville

Even Jason Mendoza doesn’t care about this game. The Falcons have actually been mostly good after throwing away the first half of their season so, sure, let’s go with them.

Oakland +7 at Los Angeles Chargers

Two teams without a home, and the saddest part is that Los Angeles actually wants the Raiders and will probably have this stadium rocking. What a disappointment both these teams have been. The Chargers have covered four times all season, and the Raiders haven’t covered in their last five games… since beating the Chargers! Take the points, or the +255 moneyline if you prefer.

THE FISH TANK

Cincinnati +1 at Miami New York Giants +2.5 at Washington

The most fascinating part of Sunday’s games might be these two Fish Tank games featuring the four worst teams in the NFL. Who will do the most to ensure they’ll take the L? Cincinnati has the least incentive to lose. They’re locked into the #1 pick unless they win both their final two games. The Bengals may as well go get a win. As for the NFC East battle, the Giants have played somewhat decently of late, and Daniel Jones is well ahead of Dwayne Haskins on the growth curve. Plus, isn’t it just so Giants to heroically win a few late games and screw up their draft pick?

PLAYING FOR THAT BYE WEEK

Baltimore -9.5 at Cleveland

The Ravens remain scorching hot. They’ve covered seven of eight games including wins against the Seahawks, Patriots, Texans, Rams, 49ers, and Bills, as impressive a run as we’ve seen in years. One of Baltimore’s two losses was to Cleveland, and you can bet they haven’t forgotten. The Ravens have won 21 of 25 against their old rival, and they clinch the 1-seed with #22.

Arizona +9.5 at Seattle

Arizona is looking frisky again after a midseason slump, and Seattle loves to let bad opponents hang around. The Seahawks won big in Arizona in September, but the previous six meetings between these division rivals was within one score. Which NFC team is more overrated? I’ll set the line at Green Bay -3 vs Seattle, and it’ll be close but Seattle covers.

Kansas City +6 at Chicago (Sunday night)

Don’t look now, but the Chiefs are starting to get healthy, and they’re actually playing defense lately too. Kansas City has won, covered, and hit the under in four straight, and their pass rush is going to give Mitch Trubisky problems. But fear not, Chicago fans — at least you finally get to see the quarterback you should’ve drafted instead.

THE GAMES OF THE WEEK…?

Tennessee +3 vs New Orleans

This one will get overlooked, but it might be the game of the week. Both these teams have been playing very well, and a loss here really hurts either of them. For the Saints, it probably drops them to the 3-seed, kills off a bye week, and gives their old quarterback two outdoor road games to make a Super Bowl. For Tennessee, their entire resurgent season likely goes out the window without a win. I like the over-49.5 best here. This should be a back-and-forth high-scoring affair, and I’m not counting out Tennessee at home. The Saints haven’t beaten a meaningful team since September. Watch out for a huge special teams advantage in the Saints favor.

Edit: With Derrick Henry out, I’ll flip to the Saints. Henry is such a key to the Titans attack.

Green Bay +5.5 at Minnesota (Monday)

Ah yes, a classic division rivalry game featuring a run-based offense with one of the league’s best RBs and a game manager quarterback up against an elite quarterback that would be in the MVP race most seasons. Plot twist! Were you thinking of Aaron Jones and Kirk Cousins? Cousins has been flat out better than Rodgers this year, and Jones hasn’t necessarily been better than Dalvin Cook, but Cook is out and Jones has been awesome. Cook’s absence is a big deal though, and Minnesota could have almost nothing to play for in this game if the Rams lose Saturday night. It’s pride they’re playing for, and really, for a chance to play the Packers one more time in January. And for Cousins, it’s that 0–8 Monday Night Football record and the 7–29 against winning teams stain he’s up against. I genuinely think the Vikings are the better team, and have been all season. But Rodgers against Cousins on Monday night and you’re giving me 5.5 points? Sorry, I just can’t turn that down.

WEEK 16 BEST BETS

Houston -1 at Tampa Bay Pittsburgh -3 at New York Jets

Can’t believe I’m backing Duck Hodges as a Week 16 best bet, but here we are. Pittsburgh is a playoff team, and they’re doing it in with defense and special teams, old school Steelers style. The Jets rank dead last on offense, behind even all the tanking teams. Pittsburgh ranks 30th so they’re not much better, and the real play here is the under-38.5, with Pittsburgh going under in 11 of 14 games. Pittsburgh has to have this game, and though their offense makes me uncomfortable, it just feels like they’ll find a way like they have all season. Neither of these favorites make me comfortable, but I’ll side with two teams with everything on the line desperately in need of a win.

Dallas -1 at Philadelphia

And now, my favorite bet of the season. The Eagles have been remarkably mediocre all year. The secondary stinks. There’s no healthy receivers or backs. Carson Wentz is trying to do too much. This team could very easily have lost to the Giants and Skins the last two weeks with the season on the line. They’re just not good. Dallas is sometime good! They still have the league’s #2 offense and a defense playing better lately. The Cowboys have had some absolute clunkers, but they also have five wins by two touchdowns, and I smell a sixth. This will be billed as the game of the week, but it’s actually the lock of the year. The Cowboys are actually kinda good and by far the class of this terrible division. The Eagles suck. It’s over. Sorry, Mom. ■

Last week: 9–7 Season total: 120–100–1 Best bets: 25–20–1

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