Week 13 picks against the spread

A huge Sunday in the NFC and picks for every game with the Seahawks, Raiders, and Browns as best bets

Can you feel that brisk autumn air beginning to get nippy? December is here, and the NFL playoffs are soon to follow. The NFL is finally getting interesting, especially in the NFC where the rise of the Rams, Vikings, and Saints has left the vaunted Seahawks, Falcons, and Cowboys teetering on the edge of the playoff picture. This week is the biggest in the NFC so far this season with three huge games spread out over a mammoth Sunday. Football might finally be good again.

That doesn’t mean we aren’t without a few weird ones. The Vikings have won seven games in a row but are underdogs. The Broncos have lost seven in a row and are somehow road favorites. Almost half of the games are a field goal line, so there are a lot of unknowns out there. Pick safely, and enjoy the games!

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Green Bay +1.5 vs Tampa Bay

Remember the good old days when this would’ve been a fun rivalry matchup between Brett Favre and Warren Sapp? This is the third straight home game the Packers have been a home underdog, and it feels undeserved here. Brett Hundley is 1–5 now but all five losses are against teams above .500. Tampa gets Jameis Winston back, and Mike Evans will be happy to see him, but the Packers are trying to keep their season alive for Aaron Rodgers.

Chicago -3 vs San Francisco

The 49ers’ last four losses have been by double digits, but this game marks the beginning of the Jimmy Garoppolo era for San Francisco. That sounds nice but Garoppolo could struggle while he’s still learning Kyle Shanahan’s complicated offense. Chicago has been pretty tough at home this year, with wins against Pittsburgh and Carolina and four losses to the Falcons, Packers, Vikings, and Lions by 19 points combined. Don’t expect a lot of fancy offense in this one between two QBs that haven’t totally figured it out yet.

Miami +1.5 vs Denver

These teams are on a combined 12-game losing streak, so this is going to remind anyone of Dan Marino or John Elway. Denver has lost seven games in a row but is favored in what can only be billed as the Jay Cutler revenge game. Cutler did play once against his original team, losing 17–15, but he gets a second crack at them here. He’ll be sour if things go awry (or if he wins, but whatever, Cutler gonna Cutler).

Los Angeles Rams -6.5 at Arizona

We’ve been picking the Rams and picking against the Cards all season, so we’re going to stick with that here. Arizona has actually been solid at home with a 3–2 record, and they’ve won four home games in a row in this series. But the Cardinals lost 33–0 to the Rams earlier this season and they’ve followed up their first four wins with four losses by a combined 77 points.

The edge of the playoff picture

Dallas +1.5 vs Washington (Thursday)

The Cowboys have won five of the last six in this historic rivalry game, but this Dallas team is not the one we’ve come to recognize of late. They’ve scored just 22 points in three games since Ezekiel Elliott went on suspension, and Dak Prescott has gone missing. But the bigger problem has been the offensive line injuries, and the line looks healthy now. Both teams are 5–6, so this feels like an elimination game in the NFC.

Baltimore -2.5 vs Detroit

It’s a battle of please-don’t-let-either-of-these-teams-makes-the-playoffs teams! The Ravens and Lions are each 6–5 but they’re both terrible to watch and are tough to get excited about. Baltimore has had the second best pass defense in the league with only 10 touchdowns allowed in 11 games, and Detroit still doesn’t know how to run the ball.

New York Jets +3.5 vs Kansas City

Both of these teams have lost five of six games, but the AFC is so bad that they’re still in the playoff mix anyway. The Chiefs have averaged just 18 points per game during those six games, scoring just 19 total their last two against the terrible Bills and Giants. The Jets always seem to keep things close, having either won or lost by one score nine straight times. This could be your upset special of the week.

The best of the AFC … apparently?

New England -8 at Buffalo

Remember when the Patriots were done and the defense was awful? That feels like forever ago now as New England coasts to its billionth straight playoff bye. The Pats are flying now, winning by an average score of 36–14 the last three games. New England has won 28 of 32 games against Buffalo, the equivalent of going 14–2 in two straight seasons against the Bills. No reason to think their dominance will stop now.

Cincinnati +5.5 vs Pittsburgh (Monday)

The Steelers have won eight of the last nine in this series, including a 29–14 victory in Pittsburgh a month ago. The problem is the way Pittsburgh continues to play down to their competition. Their wins over the Browns, Lions, Colts, and last week against the Packers have all been by five wins or less. Cincinnati doesn’t exactly have a sterling Monday night record, just 11–23 in their history. They have only beat one team on Monday night more than once, with three wins against Pittsburgh. Could they make it four?

Jacksonville -9.5 vs Indianapolis

Every time we finally start to believe in the Jaguars, they go out and drop a stinker like last week against the Cardinals. Jacksonville has either won by 12 or more points or lost in all but one game this season. That could be a problem in the playoffs since Blake Bortles apparently has no capability to win close games, but it should be fine here. Jacksonville already won 27–0 in Indianapolis a month ago without Leonard Fournette, so they should roll.

Houston +7 at Tennessee

The Titans have a heck of an opportunity. They’re 7–4 with the Texans, Cards, and 49ers on deck so they have a glorious shot at 10–4 and maybe even an AFC bye, but it might be a bit of smoke and mirrors. The last four Tennessee wins have been by four points or fewer against the Browns, Ravens, Bengals, and Colts. Houston has had a major edge in this division rivalry of late, winning nine of the past 11 including a 57–14 beat down earlier this year. They could throw a wrench into Titans’ fans dreams here.

The NFC Playoffs are here!

Atlanta -3 vs Minnesota

It’s a huge day in the NFC with this one in the early game, Panthers-Saints in the afternoon, and Eagles-Seahawks rounding out the evening. Minnesota continues to get no respect despite a seven-game win streak, and Vikings fans have no love lost for Atlanta with visions of Gary Anderson and Michael Vick dancing in their heads. But hey — the reverse jinx is working, so let’s ride it.

Carolina +4 at New Orleans

This is the game of the week, with both teams 8–3 vying for the top spot in the NFC South and trying to stay in potential position for a first round bye. New Orleans has dominated with a strong run game, but Carolina has been stout on defense all year with the third best run defense in the league. These teams have split the season series three of the past four years, and the Saints already won the matchup in Carolina in Week 3. The Panthers have won three of the past five in New Orleans and, despite never looking too impressive this year, always seem to find a way.

Week 13 best bets

Seattle +6 vs Philadelphia

This was the shock line of the week for me. Philadelphia has been better than Seattle but the Seahawks home advantage is real and even with all their injuries, I had them favored by a point at home on Sunday night, so I was off by a whole touchdown. Seattle lost their last two home games but they haven’t lost three in a row at home in the Pete Carroll era, and for all Philly’s dominance, they’re only 1–1 against teams above .500 this season. Seattle has either led or trailed by one score at some point in 113 of their last 115 fourth quarters, an incredible stat. This game will be close, and much as I adore my guy Carson Wentz, I’m still taking Russell Wilson on that final drive.

Cleveland +14 at Los Angeles Chargers

We might be overreacting a bit to the Chargers. Yes they just won by 52 against Buffalo and Dallas, but both of these games are easily explainable. The Bills game was the Nathan Peterman disaster, and the Cowboys were playing with a bunch of injuries about 90 hours after getting smashed by the Eagles. The Chargers have played in seven one-score games this year and always seem to keep things a little too interesting. Besides, wouldn’t it just be so Chargers to kill two teams and then struggle against the Browns?

Oakland -8.5 vs New York Giants

The Giants have lost their last four by double digits, and head coach Ben McAdoo appears to be a dead man walking, so they responded by … benching Eli Manning for Geno Smith? This makes even less sense than the weird Bills quarterback move a couple weeks ago. How is this Giants team going to respond? Have they quit on their coach? It feels like this one could get ugly.

Week 12 record: 11–5 Season record: 89–81–7 Best bets: 21–13–1 Locks: 2–1

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