Wave of excess deaths worldwide

UPDATE JANUARY 27, 2023: Figures from the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) show an increase in excess deaths of 20.4% in the week ending January 13, 2023, compared to pre-covid averages, representing 3,377 people, most of these deaths being unattributable to covid-19. Excess deaths are being reported from 30 countries around the world: see link to YouTube video by Dr John Campbell at the foot of this article. The UK will be winding down its covid-19 vaccination programme following advice from its Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) as ‘transition continues away from a pandemic emergency response towards pandemic recovery’.

An above average number of deaths across Europe increased in 2022 — with the UK recording an alarming 1,000 excess deaths a week during the year — following the lifting of covid-19 restrictions and when the virulence of the virus was said to be waning, compared to pre-covid-19 averages in 2016–2019.

This is what the statistics reveal. Is it the legacy of the covid-19 lockdowns during 2020–21 which caused delayed or missed medical diagnosis and treatment for thousands of people with serious health problems? Are questions of covid-19 vaccine safety becoming paramount? The position in England and Wales appears to be worsening (see below).

According to Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, and its figures published on December 15, 2022, the countries with the worst rates of excess deaths in October 2022 were Germany, Cyprus, Malta, Netherlands, Austria, Finland, Switzerland and Ireland.

In Ireland, where I live, hence my particular interest, the number of excess deaths in October 2022 was 15.6% above the EU average monthly deaths in 2016–2019, down from highs of 19.2% in April 2022, and of 16.9% in August 2022.

In fact, Ireland’s figures for excess deaths were higher than the EU average from April to October 2022, according to Eurostat. Covid-19 restrictions were lifted in Ireland from January 22, 2022, when the pandemic was deemed to be over.

In its report, Excess mortality in the EU between January 2020 and October 2022, Eurostat states that, in the third quarter of 2022, the most recent quarter for which statistics are available (at time my time of writing on December 30, 2022), the EU death rate increased compared to previous months, and in August 2022 excess deaths numbered 44,000, in September 30,000 and in October 31,000.

Based on the available information, some of the mortality increase in July and August 2022, compared with the same month of the past two years, could be due to the heatwaves which affected parts of Europe during the reference period.

In October 2022, the highest rate of excess deaths was recorded in Germany (23%), followed by Malta (19.1 %), Netherlands (18.8 %), Austria (18.1 %), Cyprus (17.6 %), Finland (17.5 %) and, as mentioned above, Ireland (15.6 %).

Excess mortality varied across the EU: Bulgaria (-1.5 %) and Romania (-7.0 %) recorded the lowest values, lower than the national monthly average for 2016–19. Hungary (4.1 %), Croatia (3.6 %), Italy (2.8 %), Slovakia (2.1 %) and Sweden (0.6 %) had excess mortality rates less than half of the EU average.

In the UK, by October 2022, mortality rates had hit their highest point since 2010, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI), which publishes regular updates on death rates, shows that mortality in the third quarter of 2022 was 9% higher than in the same quarter of 2019, before covid-19, and higher than in any third quarter since 2010. This compared with the first half of 2022, when there were similar mortality rates to 2019.

The third quarter of 2022 saw 12,700 more deaths than expected from all causes — an extremely worrying average weekly figure of about 1,000, whether one takes a 12- or 13-week period — with covid-19 mentioned on the death certificates for 7,300 deaths.

About 137,800 more deaths than expected from all causes were recorded in the UK between the start of the pandemic and the end of September 2022.

CMI mortality projections committee chair Cobus Daneel said that deaths with covid on the death certificate accounted for about 60% of the excess deaths during the quarter, so there were more deaths than expected from non-covid causes (theactuary.com. October 19, 2022). This contrasted with most of the pandemic period, when non-covid deaths were lower than expected.

Data from the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities suggests that increased deaths from heart and circulatory diseases contributed to the excess in the third quarter. While the 2022 heatwaves led to short-term increases in deaths, analysis by the ONS showed that their impact was not the primary cause of excess mortality over the quarter as a whole.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics show that in the week ending December 21, 2022, there were 14,530 registered deaths in England and Wales, an astonishing increase in all deaths of 2,141 over the previous week. Of the total number of registrations of deaths, just 429 mentioned ‘novel coronavirus’ (3%).

Numbers were above the five-year average in private homes by 37.5%, 1,120 excess deaths; in hospitals, almost 19% up, 1,031 excess deaths; in care homes, 10.5% up, 282 excess deaths; in other settings, 7% up, 61 excess deaths. Surely an independent inquiry is needed into this situation which seems to constitute a public health emergency.

The average for 2016–2021 is used by ONS for comparisons with 2022.

It will be more than interesting to see how the excess mortality position in the EU and UK, and worldwide, develops in 2023.

• For vital updates on the alarming excess deaths situation in the UK, EU and around the world, I recommend following Dr John Campbell on YouTube.

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