“War is not just the shower of bullets and bombs from both sides, it is also the shower of blood and bones on both sides.” ― Amit Kalantri, Wealth of Words

US-General Milley: “Russian has suffered significantly more than 100.000 casualties in Ukraine.”

Trent Telenko even suggests that the number of russian casualties might be as high as 300.000 (KIA/WIA/POW). General mobilisation will be unvavoidable to sustain the Russian war effort and prevent an outright collapse of the Russian frontlines in Ukraine.

The casualties on both sides are very high (Ukraine most likely also suffered somewhere north of 100k KIA/WIA. The casualties on the Russian side will be higher than those they had suffered in all their wars combined since the end of WW2. The Wagnerites are rumored to have suffered up to 80 percent casualties from the 50.000 men they had recruited from prison. Only 10.000 are still alive, according to Meduza.

In total, they could exceed anything we have seen since the 20 year long Vietnam struggle. Only the Korean war was even worse, with an estimated 2–3 million civilian casualties, 170k KIA, 32k MIA and 566k WIA

for the South Korea and its Western allies. (US, UK, Turkey, etc.)

North Korea and its allies suffered an estimaed: 398k-926k KIA, 145k MIA and 686k WIA.

The Vietnam War had cost over 1.1 million Vietcong fighters their lives. 2 million civilians perished as well. In the 9 or 10 years, 14 by some counts, in which the United States were involved, they had suffered:

58,281 KIA or non-combat deaths (including the missing and deaths in captivity) 153,372 WIA (excluding 150,332 persons not requiring hospital care) 1,584 MIA (originally 2,646). In army losses, this has made it the bloodiest war since World War II. (Casualties figures as of the fourth of May 2021)

Ukraine’s own estimates may be closer to the truth than most Western officials would care to admit.

Clarity on these numbers cannot be had until the war is over, but there is some evidence that Ukrainian estimates are closer to the truth than some may think.

Russia has provided nothing of use in this department as their own estimates are so low that even mentioning them is not worth the effort. The US provides better estimates, but we should see them as a baseline. When Milley says that the Russian losses are significantly higher than 100k, then he is not lying. Rather, he might make a safe bet baseline assumption. The only one counting these losses regularly is Ukraine. Their numbers are likely inflated. They are providing a more accurate picture than some may give these numbers credit for.

“Truth has nothing to do with the number of people it convinces” Paul Claudel

The Ukrainians have a formula based on field reports from their commanders, e.g., a BTM carries 8–10 soldiers, so they half that number and count 4 dead for every BTM. Tanks, maybe a couple, etc. Infantry deaths are most likely the most accurate body count.

The Ukrainian numbers are a fairly reasonable estimate of Russian casualties on the higher end. Ukraine is counting them daily- unlike the russians, who don’t want to count and aren’t counting or find ways to count even less. Except for the bean counters in the Russian finance department who have confirmed leaked a document with 48k dead back in early September.

The US is undercounting Russian casualties, according to Telenko

The bottom line is that the most accurate ongoing count of Russian casualties has to be calculated from the Ukrainian liquidated Russian personnel number. On the 23rd of January 2023, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense put that number at 121,000 dead Russian personnel. (that includes the Wagner mercenaries and all other factions that fight on Russia’s side but which are not regular Russian troops LNR, DPR, Chechens, etc.)

Total Russian casualties would be dead (KIA) plus wounded (WIA) plus non-battle casualties like cold injuries like trench foot or frostbite without POW.

When we multiply Ukrainian KIA figures by 1.5 to get the wounded, we arrive at 180,655 for 23 Jan. 2023. The highest estimate comes from the website minusrus. However, their estimates suggest that for every Russian soldier that is killed, three additional soldiers are wounded, which is a very bold assumption.

However, taking into account things such as AWOL, freezing to death, getting shot behind the lines by the Chechens or dying from accidents, illnesses, heatstrokes or by partisan actions would put even these very high estimates into the realm of possibility. The truth lies somewhere in between conservative US estimates, Norwegian estimates, and the calculations of Ukrainian estimates.

“The first casualty when war comes is truth” Hiram W. Johnson

According to Telenko, we are looking at 121.000 troops fighting for Russia KIA plus 182.000 wounded. That gives us roughly 303.000 Russian casualties as a balanced estimate in the middle of Ukraine’s own estimation and the Western estimates of the US. Non-battle casualties would be in addition to that 303,000 battle casualty number.

The US baseline estimate for the losses of the Russian army is: 114,425. Ukrainian estimates provide an upper ceiling with almost 400k (KIA/WIA)

So, is the US undercounting, or is Ukraine heavily overcounting? The truth lies somewhere in the middle.

The US numbers suggest that they only count Russian personnel that is KIA or WIA (killed or wounded in action). They most likely ignore the Wagner mercenary losses and those of other factions such as the DPR and LNR militias. I personally think this is quite a cruel and inhumane way to calculate losses. It basically doesn’t acknowledge that these other troops even exist or are worth mentioning. Jake Broe, an US army veteran, also repeatedly questioned the way the US is counting their casualty numbers.

Russian casualties in Ukraine hit an eye-watering 188,000, according to US intelligence intel. This is the number of Russians killed or wounded in battle that was announced to the allies at yesterday’s meeting in Ramstein.

Historical data and anecdotal evidence on Russia’s casualties.

At the end of March, CSIS estimated that the number of dead soldiers is somewhere around 15.000. The number of wounded soldiers was estimated to be around 30.000.

Russia is doing a very bad job at taking care of their wounded. The number of their dead who didn’t receive proper treatment is horrendous compared to Ukraine, which will also add to the high casualty numbers. The Eurasian times claim that Russia is following the “Chinese Model” as they call it.

Ukraine’s 1 to 10 KIA /WIA casualty rate is where it is for a reason. They got much better wound care. The “Platinum 5-minutes.” 2nd, Ukraine evacuates wounded w/in 1 hour, check off the “Golden hour.” Trelenkot the end of March, the CSIS institute had estimated that the Russian army losses could be somewhere in excess of 40.000 to 45.000 men. They assessed 10.000 to 15.000 dead Russian troops at this point. So, in the last 10 months, Russia would have only lost 1.5 times that amount of men.

If it that is the case, then why would they even think of a new wave of mobilisation?

In my opinion, should Russian casualties (KIA/WIA) be at 114.000 men, then Russia should have no need to announce this new wave of mobilisation, which they are preparing for at the moment Additionally, there were gruesome reports in April that Russia is wiping out the entire male population of the Donbass by force conscripting military aged men there. US estimates seem to argue that these men do not count as “Russian losses”. For the Ukrainian estimates, they do count, it seems. So, yes, why shouldn’t they count, actually?

In August 2022, the NY Times estimated 500 Russian casaulties per day.

That means they calculated around 80.000 casualties in total by August. That is another excellent example of why the way the US is counting is as Telenko notes heavily flawed. That would mean that since the 11th of August, 160 days have passed. That means if we calculate 500 losses x 160 days. So we add another 80.000 casualties on top of these baseline assumptions. The US calculates even less than that baseline assumption. In fact, these calculations defy logic and what has happened on the ground since August. The fighting has intensified and gotten even more bloody, rather than slowed down since August. So, I would say the lower ceiling sits at 160k troops (dead, wounded, POW)

Then there are other news outlets such as Meduza talk about 90.000 Russian troops that could be dead, disable, or AWOL, that was in October. Well, and there are, of course, the estimates of Ukraine, which are the upper ceiling of these discussions.

Ukraine estimates a much higher casualty rate, which is dismissed as “just propaganda” by some. I would caution against disregarding these numbers. There are numerous intercepted phone calls that suggest that the Russian army is taking horrendous casualties. Russia uses its conscripts regularly as canonfodder. So something is not adding here, according to Telenko, and I agree with that assessment.

Here are some more estimates from another Ukrainian source.

I caution to take these numbers at face value as it is very likely biased.

I caution against believing that these estimates of losses by Ukraine are not possible. Russia seems convinced that just because they lie about everything, everyone else will do the exact same thing all the time. Historians will get to the bottom of all these issues years later.

Important note by the author: I do not have the objective truth, I do not claim to have it, but I am trying my best to give an overall picture. I do not want to tell you how to think, I just want to share with you the way I think and for you to make up your own mind.

People never lie so much as after a hunt, during a war, or before an election. — Otto Von Bismarck.

‘In a time of deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act.’ George Orwell

All speculations aside, there is, of course, some hard evidence: I am talking about the confirmed losses and of Oryxspioenkop. Oryx is documenting the confirmed losses of Russia with photo or video evidence of destroyed Russian military vehicles. Another great analyst on this war here in Medium created ten charts using these numbers from Oryx. They are well worth looking into and give a broader, more detailed picture of how these numbers should be interpreted.

While Russian personell losses are hard to pinpoint, Ukraine is doing a really good job at estimating their vehicle losses.

The West assumes that over 2000 Russian MBTs are destroyed by now, and according to Oryx, at least 500 of them were captured. Open source researchers suggest that taking the confirmed losses of Oryx and adding 50 percent on top gives you a fair picture of the actual losses with regard to military vehicles and tanks.

According to Oryx, 1700 MBTs destroyed are confirmed. The actual number will sit somewhere in between 2500 and 3200.

Also, Russia doesn’t have 10.000 operational tanks in storage but more something around 3500 in total, out of which 2500 are battle ready and 1000 could be made battles ready over time. According to Zeihan, due to the successful counter offensive by the Ukrainian army in the fall. They might enjoy a massive advantage over Russia in the spring in terms of MBTs and armored vehicles by a factor of six.

“The Ukrainians have continuosly to the upside, and Russia has continuously surprised to the downside” Peter Zeihan

Summary and Conclusion

So, how can Russia be willing to tolerate such losses without realising that this is a suicide mission?

The trick here is to realize that Russia isn’t really a country but a colonial empire. It’s a geographical area that is under the control of organized crime. The Kremlin is basically a Mafia like cleptocratic gong show with a brainwashing department and nukes. Putin has no regard for life or well-being of the russian people. They exist to serve the leaders, and he views them as disposable tools. The russian leadership does not report anything to its people. The people exist to serve the leader and nothing more, as Tolstoy once noted:

Autocracy is a superannuated form of government that may suit the needs of a Central African tribe, but not those of the Russian people, who are increasingly assimilating the culture of the rest of the world. That is why it is impossible to maintain this form of government except by violence.” Leo Tolstoy

In Russia, there is all kinds of talk about mother russia, patriotism, the Great War, and how russia cannot be defeated.

Some might even believe that. In the end, the real decisions depend on how much money and power can be stolen and diverted. There just needs to be enough manpower available to operate the oilfields and build the palaces (yes, Putin has palaces).

As long as the russian leadership can live in luxury and doesn’t have to admit that they made a mistake, they will send in peasants to die in Ukraine. Think of this as a Tsarist russia, not a Soviet russia. The lifes of the serfs belong to Tsar Putin, and he may use them as he pleases.

They are not asked to "accept" the losses. Instead, they have to suffer them, and Putin takes no responsibility for that whatsoever as the blame is shifted away from him.

It is very, very difficult to fight an enemy like this, and I wish Western politicians would understand what they are dealing with.

The ONLY thing the Kremlin respects is power and force of weapons. They smell weakness (which is what Germany is showing) and double down on threats and misinformation.

Why does Russia not report these figures properly then?

They might just not know them exactly themselves. The "offical" figures are just the troops under the direct command of the Russian MoD minus a bunch of special forces or semi independent groups (Kadyrovites, for example) within the Russian army Wagner and all the other Russian PMC operating in Ukraine isn’t a part of that. That’s not to mention that the Russian MoD is doctoring the "offical" figures since, according to obituaries, there have been entire Russian units that have been destroyed, not just rendered combat ineffective. The vast number of different independent Russian operated groups fighting in Ukraine is very confusing.

All in all, those casualty levels are apocalyptic. I don’t understand how Russians are able to accept those levels. Event he US estimates are already really bad, but the reality might be even more shocking. We won’t know for sure until the war is over. My own belief is that the truth is somewhere in between removing 30 percent from what Ukraine is reporting and adding 40 percent on the numbers the US puts out. So Telenko might be correct that Russia lost somewhere north of 300.000 troops thus far. Let me know in the comments what you think about Russian casualties and which numbers we should trust the most.

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Take care and be well.

Post Scriptum:

Civil rights agency Rus Sidjaschtschaja's Telegram reports that out of the first recruited 50.000 Wagner inmate soldiers, only 10.000 are still in the fight.

"The rest are killed, wounded, missing, have surrendered or deserted, also to Russia, gun in hand."

Sources: