Russian War on Ukraine
Ukraine’s Offensive Progress is Credible — Prigozhin ‘Podcast’
He may look like a porker, but I doubt he’s telling porkies* — why?
Ukraine’s Defence Ministry is properly reticent about the progress of their counter-offensive. Operational security they call it. OpSec. Generally I think that their progress updates lag real time by 36–48 hours.
But Wagner’s Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin is quite open and timely about the progress of Ukraine’s efforts to eject Russia from the illegally held territory. Many knowledgeable observers are of the opinion that the Pretender to Putin’s Palaces is reasonably accurate in his assessments of UAF gains and losses on the eastern and southern fronts.
His reports are credible — mostly, although exaggeration of Ukraine successes is in his political interest.
His domestic Russian enemies are clearly identified in his rants.
His ambition is naked.
But why the accuracy of his reports?
Let’s take a look at what he says, where it’s directed — and why.
The ‘podcasts’
If you want to find out how Ukraine is progressing, check Prigozhin. It’s not really a podcast, more a vlog, but ‘Pigozhin Podcast’ sounds better. Although his facial characteristics are reminiscent of a character from Orwell’s ‘Animal Farm’, that was a genuine typo that I made of his name.
Prigozhin says: (Autotranslate)
Pyatikhatki under the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Robotino, the northern part — under the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Harvest — under the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Near to Tokmak — the Armed Forces of Ukraine, no weapons, no ammunition, the soldiers even need grenades, they write letters to the command.
The information is being shut up, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are going to the Molochny Liman, if possible, they will return most of the territories occupied by the Russian Federation.
The crossing of the Dnieper begins, in Hola Pristan there is already a DRG, soon regular troops.
All this is hidden from military correspondents. “There is a direct betrayal of the Russian Federation,” and all this is happening against the backdrop of losses, with a shortage of personnel of 50–60%.
All that the leadership of the NWO is doing is juggling the facts for the transfer to the leadership of the Kremlin. They are deceiving Putin and the Russian people.
At yesterday’s collegium of the Ministry of Defense, an exhibition was discussed, which was organized by Shoigu’s relatives and the parade.
In general, everything is going according to “plan”.
His irony is delicious, but we should be careful what we wish for.
Prigozhin may not have formal military training but he talks the talk and walks the walk because he listens to the competent professionals under his command — and follows their advice. His video presentations appear to be off the cuff with very little editing and he appears to be in command of the details of the thrusts and counter-thrusts, the villages which are changing hands and he offers a sensible view of Kyiv’s probable strategic intent.
Prigozhin’s messaging is designed to appeal to the common Russian soldier and to the Ivans on the Russian ulitsas as well as his Wagnerites; it is also designed further to irritate the hornets nest of Moscow politics.
The contract
His filmed offer this week of the delivery of the contract to the Defence Ministry was pure theatre.
The clauses of the contract he offered were 180⁰ away from those which Shoigu had created under a new law designed to subjugate all private militias to the Army command. Prigozhin was offering a reverse takeover of the Russian Defence Ministry, one which the stakeholders were sure to reject. The poor woman in the office was terrified and refused to accept delivery of the document.
As far as I am aware the Russian Defence Ministry has not yet commented on the issue.
I was surprised to see that he was reckless enough to visit the Ministry (I read that the video was geolocated and the buildings were identifiable). But there is no sign of any guards. Staged? Possibly.
His confidence is palpable. Is he untouchable?
Will no one rid me of this turbulent priest? (Henry II of England preceding the death of Thomas Becket, the Archbishop of Canterbury, in 1170).
Prigozhin is dangerous all round.
Ukraine is far better off fighting against the bumbling, drunken and incompetent idiots that Putin and his senior staff appear to have become.
I wonder if Putin reads Shakespeare.
The opposition
We haven’t heard much from the Akhmat Army of Ramzan Kadyrov since the reported injury (some say death) of his brother in arms, Adam Delimkhanov.
Kadyrov’s representative in Russia’s State Duma and head of Chechen RossGvadia was said to have been injured in a Ukrainian strike.
It has been reported that Prigozhin provided Ukraine with the coordinates of Delimkhanov’s position.
Another one bites the dust?
It’s now a week after that BBC story and there are still doubts about Delimkhanov’s health or continued existence.
And what about Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov?
Happy times!
The opportunity
Were he to succeed in the power struggle, Prigozhin would not quickly be able to correct the systemic problems in the Russian forces or replace the huge quantities of lost materiel. But that wouldn’t matter. He does not appear to share in Putin’s crazy dream of Russian imperial greatness.
He just wants the power.
I don’t think he needs the money — his net worth is variously reported to be $1 billion, but you know, enough is never enough is it?
Let’s just hope that someone in the Kremlin is still sober and has changed Putin’s launch codes. The time may be coming when the West is better off with the drunken devil they know than with the problematical porker.
‘Animal Farm’? Yes, the pig in the fable was called ‘Napoleon’. Under his dictatorship the farm ends up in a state as bad as it was before.
Will Prigozhin be marching on Moscow?
If he did, would he share Napoleon’s fate? Would Moscow burn?
Sit back and relax with a beautiful piece from Tchaikovsky…well, relax until the gunshots start and the cannons get to work to rouse you before the church bells finally ring. Tchaikovsky wrote it to celebrate Napoleon’s retreat from Moscow.
It still makes the hairs on the back of my neck stand up.
My vinyl of the 1812 Overture dates back over 50 years and on the flip side was ‘Capriccio Italien’. Listen to it if you need to unwind after all the Moscow Madness of 1812 and 2023.
And that’s capriccio (a fancy or whim), not cappuccino (coffee), but you knew that anyway and…
*porkies (‘pork pies’) is English Cockney rhyming slang for lies.
When will the church bells ring in Moscow?
And in Kyiv?
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