Ukraine War
Ukraine: Why the Patriot Missile System Matters
It sends a message to Putin and much, much more besides
We’ve seen the horrifying destruction of civilian targets in Ukraine, of which the dreadful hit of a supersonic Russian X-22 missile on an apartment block in Dnipro is just the latest.
‼️The Armed Forces of Ukraine do not have weapons capable of shooting down X-22 missiles, one of which hit a residential building in Dnipro, said Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk, Commander of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
“Since the beginning of Russia’s military aggression on the territory of Ukraine, more than 210 missiles of this type have been fired. Not a single one was shot down by air defense systems. Only anti-aircraft missile systems are capable of intercepting these air targets, which in the future can be provided to Ukraine by Western partners (we are talking about such systems as the Patriot PAC-3 or SAMP-T),” Oleshchuk said. — Ukraine Telegram, United24Media.
The X-22 is a complex and expensive missile and Putin’s use of them in Ukraine is possibly indicative of the success of Ukraine air defences against cruise missile and drone attacks. He has a window of opportunity now before the Patriot system is deployed — so far the US has announced the supply of just one Patriot battery.
Defending against the X-22
Designed as an air-launched carrier-busting missile with a variety of attack profiles, the X-22 is now being deployed against ground targets.
Defending against the supersonic X-22 requires missile systems which can respond quickly enough — and that means at medium range guided by powerful radars with missiles which can accurately intercept the 6 ton liquid-fuelled X-22 when it is flying at Mach 4.6 (~3,500 mph).
There are few air defence missile systems which can do this. The leading ones are:
- US Patriot
- British Sky Sabre (already deployed in Poland)
- French/Italian SAMP-T (en-route to Ukraine)
Accuracy required
This snippet illustrates the degree of sophistication required to hit missiles in flight:
On February 25, 1991, an Iraqi Al Hussein Scud missile hit the barracks in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, killing 28 soldiers from the U.S. Army’s 14th Quartermaster Detachment.
A government investigation revealed that the failed intercept at Dhahran had been caused by a software error in the system’s handling of timestamps. The Patriot missile battery at Dhahran had been in operation for 100 hours, by which time the system’s internal clock had drifted by one-third of a second. Due to the missile’s speed this was equivalent to a miss distance of 600 meters. (Wikipedia)
The Scud has a maximum speed of Mach 4. The X-22 Mach 4.6 in terminal phase.
We know that the Patriot works against Scuds, but the X-22 is a very different animal.
Why the Patriot System matters
It matters because it is a signal to Putin that the US is fully committed to supporting Ukraine and will provide Ukraine with all means to defend against any Russian threat. Short, of course, of giving them weapons capable of hitting targets deep within Russia, but Ukraine has already demonstrated its long range capability with the drone strikes on Engels airbase at Saratov 450 km inside Russia.
The US has held back on sending the Patriot system, but it’s clear that the State Department and Pentagon now believe that the time is right for this signal.
The Patriot
The system is designed to detect and intercept incoming cruise or ballistic missiles at a range of up to 37 nautical miles, making it an invaluable defense against enemy missile strikes. It uses a combination of radar, infrared sensors, and other technologies to track target objects in real time, allowing for rapid interception and destruction of hostile missiles before they can reach their intended targets.
Radar
The radar system comprises several components, including multiple antennae, a high-powered signal processor, range and angle measurement systems, and other electronic hardware and software. The antennae are designed to detect signals from hostile targets in any direction, while the signal processor helps filter out false returns from nearby clutter or jamming. Once the radar detects a target, the range and angle measurement systems help the system determine its exact location and trajectory.
The most significant upgrade to the PAC-3 missile is the addition of an active radar seeker in the missile. This allows the missile to drop its uplink from the mother radar system and acquire its target itself in the terminal phase of its intercept, which improves the reaction time of the missile against a fast-moving ballistic missile target.
The battery radar is able to detect and track more than 100 potential targets.
ECM
Additionally, the Patriot missile system contains advanced electronic countermeasures that allow it to jam signals from some incoming missiles, making them easier to track and destroy.
The X-22 uses inertial navigation and therefore does not rely on GPS (Glonass) for guidance, so jamming the GPS is not possible. There are reports that the X-22 uses active radar to assist navigation as it approaches terminal phase, so that could be ‘jammable’.
Propulsion
A Patriot missile is powered by a solid fuel rocket and is capable of Mach 4 (PAC3 variant).
Warhead
The PAC-3 missile is accurate enough to select, target, and home in on the warhead portion of an inbound ballistic missile. The active radar gives the warhead a “hit-to-kill” (kinetic kill vehicle) capability that completely eliminates the need for a traditional proximity-fused warhead. The missile still has a small explosive warhead, called Lethality Enhancer, a warhead which launches 24 low-speed tungsten fragments in radial direction to make the missile cross-section greater and enhance the kill probability. This greatly increases the lethality against ballistic missiles of all types (Wikipedia, ibid.)
Manning
A single US Patriot defence configuration has about 90 soldiers (open sources).
In the U.S. Army, the Patriot System is designed around the battalion echelon. A Patriot battalion consists of a headquarters battery, which includes the Patriot ICC and its operators), a maintenance company, and between four and six “line batteries”, which are the actual launching batteries that employ the Patriot systems. Each line battery consists of (nominally) six launchers and three or four platoons: Fire Control platoon, Launcher platoon, and a Headquarters/Maintenance platoon — either a single platoon or separated into two separate units, at the battery commander’s discretion. (Wikipedia, ibid.)
The number of soldiers in the battalion echelon means that training is more complex than, for example, the French/Italian SAMP/T which requires only 14 troops in a battery.
A complete SAMP/T system consists of 4 launcher vehicles, one Thales Arabel multifunction radar with friend or foe identification system, one engagement module based on command and control vehicle, one vehicle-based electric generator. Furthermore the launchers are escorted by logistics trucks. Of course several SMAP/T batteries would be required to provide the same degree of protection as one Patriot system.
France and Italy have already committed to supplying SAMP/T to Ukraine (France has 60 batteries and Italy 40).
Which version?
It’s not yet clear which version of the Patriot will be provided to Ukraine. The PAC 3 upgrade is the most effective against ballistic missiles, but has a shorter range of 19 nm against the PAC2 of 99 nm (nautical miles) for ballistic missile intercepts. The PAC 2 is more effective against aircraft and air to surface missiles. Ballistic missiles are in general, not steerable, but the Russian X-22 is not ballistic — it is a 600 km-range stand-off air-launched missile with a considerable ability for course changes.
The PAC3 MSE upgrade has a range of 37 nm against ballistic targets.
Deployment
While Patriot missile defense systems are capable of operating independently to intercept short-range missiles and other airborne threats, they are primarily designed as a point defense. This means that they protect a specific asset or location, and are best deployed as part of a layered missile defense system.
The PAC-3 upgrade has effectively quintupled the “footprint” that a Patriot unit can defend against ballistic missiles of all types, and has considerably increased the system’s lethality and effectiveness against ballistic missiles (Wikipedia, ibid.)
So, I’m guessing that the first battalion will be used to protect Kyiv.
Meanwhile, within NATO’s borders:
Germany has started deploying Patriot air defense systems to Poland — Der Spiegel.
The air defense systems will also guard the transshipment point in Zamość, where humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine is unloaded. It is located 30 kilometers from the border.
I can’t believe they disclosed the location, although I’m sure Russia knows already.
A lingering doubt
I’m wondering how effective these missiles will be against the X-22 with its multiple flight profiles. It would certainly be embarrassing for the US if they were unable to stop an X-22. They must have been sure that it would work before they committed to sending one system.
The Patriot system matters, because of the signal it sends to Putin, and because it might be the only line of defence against one of Russia’s most powerful missiles.
The US military will be eager to test it.
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…going ballistic
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