Ukraine War

Ukraine: Why Are F16s So Important ?

What’s wrong with their Migs? And why not the Typhoon?

The latest news today (20 May 2023) is that the US is ready to support the transfer of F-16s to Ukraine by other countries, but will not directly supply them itself. So far the US has focused on providing materiel for ground and air defence systems.

US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said President Joe Biden “informed his G7 counterparts” of the decision at the bloc’s summit in Hiroshima, Japan on Friday, 19 May.

It’s a nuanced response to persistent demand from Ukraine, but I’m pretty sure that the Kremlin will react vehemently.

Senior US military officials who have spoken to the BBC in the past have questioned whether Western-supplied fighter jets will dramatically alter the conflict, with Russia’s large air force still struggling to gain air superiority and the high density of air defence systems on the ground. — BBC

One thing that’s been puzzling me is why the Eurofighter/Typhoon is rarely mentioned in this context. And it’s because ‘it would be the wrong choice’.

This is what Ben Wallace, UK Defence Secretary, told The Guardian in February 2023:

Part of the problem, Wallace added, was that a rapid deployment would have to involve hundreds of British ground crew having to relocate to Ukraine for support — although Ukraine hopes to train its own engineers as needed.

“Gifting a fighter jet comes with hundreds of people: engineers, pilots, training, electronic warfare. The more complicated the platform, the greater the tail,” Wallace said, referring to the need for ground support.

“The west is not going to be putting troops into Ukraine in those scales. The idea that we would put Typhoons in — we would have to send 200 RAF people and we’re not going to do that … at this current stage,”

The Typhoon/Eurofighter is a highly complex aircraft, more challenging than the F-16 to maintain. Just look at the canards — a whole new set of computer-controlled control surfaces. It’s basically half a generation ahead of the F-16 in that respect. That picture is taken as it flies through the Mach Loop (‘Machynlleth’ loop in my home country, Wales).

But Wallace’s comments also apply to the F-16. Note that the UK does not have any F-16s in the RAF.

Ukraine’s Migs

These are largely Mig-29s and if they are tasked with ground support for Ukrainian counter-offensive operations then they will be in range of A2A missiles fired from Russian fighters inside Russian-controlled territory.

They are old and doubtedly Ukraine will have upgraded them. Poland is supplying Ukraine with a batch of their own Mig-29s which will probabaly be backfilled with F-16s from the US. Slovakia, too.

The General Dynamics F-16: Fighting Falcon

The General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon is actually quite an old plane, widely exported and well-proven in combat.

I’ve tabulated the details of some (but not all) of the key fighters that could finally be in play in Ukraine skies to compare them with the F-16. All have guns and can carry bombs, but here I have focused on A2A missiles.

It’s worth noting the runway requirements. Long runways are more vulnerable to attack and that’s where the Typhoon scores — it could almost take off on half a regular runway. Also, those twin-engined heavy Migs need long runways (as does the Mig-29).

It’s all about the missiles

Russia’s longest-range air-to-air missile is the R-37M (AA-13 Arrow). It is an advanced long-range air-to-air missile primarily designed for engaging large and high-value aerial targets, such as airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft, tankers, and command-and-control platforms. The R-37M is reportedly capable of engaging targets at distances of up to 400 kilometers (250 miles) and can be launched from various Russian fighter aircraft, including the MiG-31BM interceptor and new Mig-35. It is known for its high speed, maneuverability, and powerful warhead. And this is the problem for Ukraine’s airforce.

Russian air patrols can detect a Ukrainian jet’s take-off deep inside the territory of Ukraine. Their R-37M missiles can hit an aerial target at a distance of 150–200km (93–124 miles), whereas Ukrainian missiles can only travel up to 50km (31 miles).

So, Russian planes can see Ukrainian aircraft and shoot them down long before they pose any threat. — BBC

Ukraine’s older SU-25 aircraft do not even have missile threat warning systems and have to be warned by ground-based radar operators.

The F-16 difference

The F-16 is capable of firing the AIM-120 AMRAAM (180 km max, version dependent), currently the longest-range A2A missile made by the US. We don’t know what A2A missiles will be made available to Ukraine with any F-16s.

The AIM-120 range is not as great as that of the Russian R-37M but it’s enough to keep the Russian aircraft at bay. Also of course, it’s almost certain that the F-16s will have ECM capable of foxing the Russian missiles — and that’s on top of their radars which will be a generation better than anything current Ukraine aircraft have.

Yet again I’m puzzled, and this is an aside: Why does the longest range US A2A missile have so much less range than the Russian R37-M (180 km v 400 km)? Raw range isn’t the only factor in air-to-air combat and the AIM-120D has many advanced features. The upcoming US AIM-260 will be even more advanced but still with nothing like the range of the R37-M Vympel, reports say.

The F-16 has been sold to 25 countries and so its fair to assume that Russia will by now have detailed knowledge of the plane. But no matter, it will surely alter the balance of air power.

Conclusion

What we are seeing is a gradual ramping up from the US as they have become convinced that Russia is now on the back foot.

There is more confidence that Putin is seriously weakened politically and militarily. The debacle last week when six of his much-vaunted Kinzhal ‘hypersonic’ missiles were downed by Ukraine has deepened the belief that Russia’s hi-tec weapons are over-hyped, ill-maintained and unreliable. It would appear that Western defence systems are capable of dealing with anything that Russia can throw at them.

Even their nuclear MAD credibility is being called into question, as Barry Gander pointed out here on Medium.

Although delivery of F-16s to Ulkraine may take several months to achieve, there must now be very serious concerns in the Kremlin about the further prosecution of this illegal war.

And individual concern about the prospect of personal prosecution. Or execution.

The pressure on Putin is ramping up, if, that is, he is in touch with the real world.

Update:

MOSCOW, May 20. /TASS/. Western countries continue down the path of escalation and Moscow will take their plans to send F-16 aircraft to Ukraine into account, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told TASS on Saturday.

“We can see that Western countries continue to stick to an escalation scenario, which carries enormous risks for them. In any case, we will take it into account when making plans. We have all the necessary means to achieve our goals,” he said, — TASS

I guess that they have redefined their goals…

More context:

About me: If you follow me I guarantee variety in your inbox with some unusual perspectives!

If you appreciate stories like these then a clap or two would be appreciated. Or maybe just buy me a coffee? and tell me what you liked reading (or not)…

My novels are available at my Gumroad bookstore. Also at Amazon and Apple

Author’s note: The concept, structure, style and creative content in this story are all my own and I hope that is obvious to a reader. I do not employ third party writers. However, I do occasionally use an AI assistant to research and present small sections of factual content and data. All facts are checked where possible.