Ukraine Update 26 January
Russian Poetry, A One-Armed German, and Voices in the Dark
Voices in the Dark
Germany. Poland. Hungary. Iran. Ukraine. France. Now Slovakia. Europeans know how to protest and are coming out strong against Russian-backed politicians. The image below is from Slovakia, protesting Fascist Fico and his pro-Russian policy of supporting Ukraine’s surrender. Note that Slovakia is still manufacturing arms that are sent to Ukraine — no reason not to butter both sides of the bread. In a meeting on 24 January, German Chancellor Olaf “Scholzing” Scholz told Fico “not to expect negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.”
It’s our turn now, America. There are demonstrations planned on the anniversary of the full-scale invasion, 24 February. The GOP is playing for an audience of one right now and has admitted as much on tape, but there are a few weak links in the chain. We need to identify them and get the ball rolling.
One-armed German
Speaking of Scholz, Germany has joined the “Security Guarantees” club with Ukraine, setting the stage for a long-term commitment to military and financial aid. The UK has acknowledged the reluctance of German politicians to give up Taurus missiles and has offered to buy German Taurus instead, which would allow the UK to ship more Storm Shadows. An unidentified German politician was quoted as saying, “No German missile must ever fall on Russian territory.”
In a new arms package, Germany delivered IRIS-T SLM, Gepard air defense system, 230,000 artillery rounds, over 80 Leopard 1 A5 tanks, 450 armored vehicles, engineering machines, bridge layers, demining systems, a large shipment of drones, and more. This is a large package, and the artillery rounds are sorely needed right now. This is planned support for 2024, not an actual delivery.
On the one hand, Germany is supporting Ukraine with considerable weaponry, but on the other, it is restricting the most needed items — Taurus missiles — which would allow Ukraine to sever Russian supply lines.
Reverse Hanukah
In an ironic reversal of the Jewish holiday, Ukraine is burning Russian oil. I talked about the implications yesterday, but I offer a summary of the strikes in January today. I’m using the DDMM format because it makes more sense than the US’s backward MMDD. By the way, the US military uses DDMM for anything important and MMDD for things that aren’t important, like leave (vacation) requests and performance evaluations.
0801 — Nizhny Tagil, Sverdlovsk (not drone, explosives were planted on train cars), 0901 — Oryolneftprodukt — Oryol region, 1801 — St. Petersburg, 1901 — Klintsy, Bryansk, 2101 — Ust Luga, near St. Petersburg, 2401 Tuapse Refinery, Krasnodar.
Note that I am not Jewish and have only the slightest understanding of the story about how the oil lasted for longer than it should have. I just thought it was a decently creative subheading.
Russian Poetry
I guess this is more prose than poetry, but war has a way of bringing out the creativity in those who serve. Some of them are lucid, and some of them know what is happening. After writing this, the author will pick up his gun and continue to fight, and that is what amazes me. He can say all of this, and yet it will never be reflected in his actions.
This comes from “Xmuroe Utro” on Telegram. “I wrote this long ago, but it remains relevant today. In the beginning, when we still believed them, they took away from us power, truth, idealism, a sense of security, hope for justice and a normal future. Later, we stopped believing, but they didn’t care anymore because they managed to get factories, newspapers, ships, mines, TV channels, fair elections, and changes of power. Over the years, while disbelief gave way to well-fed apathy, while we were dozing, they picked up gas, timber, oil, banks, land, water, and the sky. During a short-term disturbance, while we crowded and argued with each other, they managed to steal our protest, along with the hope of the possibility of victory and faith in the viability of our leaders. Then, during the years of hungry apathy, since they had already taken all other benefits, they began to rummage through our pockets in search of saved pennies and bread crumbs. Finding almost nothing there, out of anger, they broke the peace with Ukraine, a strong ruble, and spoiled the cheese. In return, they threw us chains and several clamps so we could spell out the word “ass.” And now they are in no hurry to stop — after all, they can still melt the fat from under our skin, scrape off the meager stubble, put the skin on drums, and feed the meat to the chained dogs. And then, they will take the chains and clamps away because they won’t be necessary any longer and take them to the scrap yard. We will no longer be needed or important to them. Not needed, not important, not dear, not dangerous, not warm, and not hot. We are nothing to them. And only the deathly silence, sunshine, portraits of the leaders, and our skeletons will remain.”
Drone Training
Note to future military planners: Do not locate your training centers anywhere near the front lines. Ukraine used what was probably a HIMARS strike to take out a drone operator training center in the occupied Donetsk region, killing an unknown but considerable number of trainers and trainees. Apparently, the head of the unit had put out a message on Telegram telling everyone where and when to meet to conduct the training, and the message was intercepted by Ukrainian intelligence and put to good use. The information on the strike is from Russian sources, “Romanov Lite” on Telegram.
In related news, Dmitri Rogozin (Russian military officer) reports that his unit endured drone attacks every ten minutes for over a day. He said that over a dozen Ukrainian drones are in the air at any given time in one “area of responsibility” and that it makes movements and resupply difficult.
Deepened Vulnerabilities
Ukrainian intelligence reports that Chinese-made surveillance cameras from Dahua and Hikvision transmit information to the servers of the manufacturer in China. The import of these cameras is already prohibited in the United States because they threaten national security. Ukraine has succeeded in blocking the transmissions of 10,000 such devices, but this is only a small percentage of the total. These cameras are widely used in dozens of countries.
Russian Losses
The loss reports make it seem like almost all the losses are from drones. Is this the truth? Or are there other losses not recorded that come from other sources? Of course, there are. But how many? Is this 10%? Or 50%? Or 90%? Note that the creator of these spreadsheets, Andrew Perpetua, has stated that Russia releases more drone footage than Ukraine does, and thus, the proportionality is more or less correct for the drone strikes, but there are still 10,000 Russian artillery shells and 2,000 Ukrainian shells fired every day, not to mention more strategic strikes like HIMARS.
Today was a hard day psychologically. The politics in the US really get me down, and it is sad to see such an easy war to win being lost due to … what, exactly? Indifference? Incompetence? Why have voters decided to elect such selfish and simple-minded representatives? Are Republicans really going to take orders from Trump on the border and Ukraine legislation? Everything Trump touches dies. Haven’t they learned that yet? Did Iowa and New Hampshire teach them nothing? Republicans who didn’t vote for Trump never will. Tying your cart to that horse is a terrible move. I will hope for better news tomorrow, as I always do. 702 days in a row.