Ukraine Update 19 January
Partisans, Riots, Blackouts, Drone Deficiencies, and more!
Some have asked for a PDF link to the rather long and well-sourced article I wrote called “Ukraine is Vital to US.” Here is the PDF. Share responsibly.
Partisan Warfare
Partisans in the occupied territories have been mining the roads that Russians use to resupply and reposition. Here, a group hit a land mine and then discovered a second mine, which they disarmed. They also found the tracks in the snow of the partisans who laid the mine, although the tracks didn’t lead far because of the fresh snow. The mines were laid only a day or two before.
SMERSH (Death to Spies), the Stalinist era anti-partisan, anti-subversion forces are very active now in Crimea, arresting dozens of citizens every week. The lucky ones get fined and are forced to make video confession/apology videos. The official announcement was made on 4 December 2023 by a ‘Congressman’ (Duma rep). Russia has declared that it is now illegal to say “Glory to Ukraine, glory to the heroes,” which is a typical greeting now in Ukraine.
Ancient Technology
Russia has fired a P-35 anti-ship missile at Ukraine from a ground-based launcher in Crimea. The P-35 entered service in 1965 and weighs 4 tons. It was intercepted by air defense.
Blackouts
Crimea suffered widespread blackouts (red) and brownouts (green) in Sevastopol, together with Simferopol, Feodosia, Kerch, Dzhankoy, and Saky. The blackouts were linked to the failure of the Balaklava Thermal Power Station, which cascaded to other parts of the network. Road and rail transport were interrupted as civilian trains ran on electricity. While they use diesel engines for military transport, the civilian trains were blocking the rails and delaying movement. Road traffic was disrupted due to traffic signals not working.
Belgorod suffered a disaster at an electrical substation, which lit up the night sky like the Fourth of July. Wait, is that a Katie Perry lyric? Is that how far I’ve sunk? I’m quoting my workout playlist now?
Cell phone video from Crimea shows Russian occupiers wearing paramedic uniforms and driving ambulances with Ukrainian lettering and license plates. The ambulance was plundered from Kherson and presumably the uniforms as well.
In other news from Crimea, this is from 2014. Here is a pro-Russian protest that was filmed in Crimea. Can anyone tell me what is wrong with this picture?
Another Ship?
Russia lost another ship — this time a Tarantul class in Grafska Bay, Crimea. It was damaged some weeks ago by a drone attack and was slowly leaking, but it has now been confirmed sunk by satellite imagery.
Do Your Job, Go to Jail
Russian Colonel Sergi Volkov has been arrested and sentenced to six years in prison for the poor protection of the Kerch Bridge that led to damage to the bridge last year. Nevermind that the concentration of air defenses in place was greater than anywhere else in Russia, and that he did everything by the book, and was simply helpless against the superior Western weapons. Someone must be blamed. Otherwise, it is Russia’s fault, and if it’s Russia’s fault, then it’s Putin’s fault. Blame the Boyar.
Capitalism Wins Again
… against whatever it is they have in Russia. Kleptocratic kakistocracy? A drone unit commander around Krynky (southern front on the Dnipro River) complains about the quality and quantity of drones coming from Russia. Both sides are very reliant on drones in the area, but Russia is having problems. The use of drones requires constant innovation and adaptation to counter the electronic warfare measures that the enemy uses, and Ukraine is much more adept at modifying and updating its drones.
Drones are controlled via remote control, using a huge variety of frequencies, encryption, and signal characteristics. They employ frequency hopping, … okay, I’m not going to get into all that. I used to teach Electromagnetic Radiation 101 for the US Navy Cryptologists. In short, there are a million ways to modify a radio signal, and they are using all of them. As soon as they find a new one, it takes a few weeks, and the enemy adapts to it, creating a countermeasure that disables the signal, forcing innovation. Ukraine does this more quickly because they have decentralized labs working on the problem from many angles.
The Russian complains that somebody got a contract to build drones in Russia and then is just mass-producing them. With mass production, he says, the quality has actually gone down. The individual components that are used are cheap. The ‘hohols’ (a derogatory word for Ukrainians, meaning ‘crest’ in reference to the popular Cossack-inspired mohawk haircut) have already saturated the area with jammers for those drones, and they are now useless, but the company has a five-year contract, and so they keep sending drones that can’t be used.
St Petersburg
A Ukrainian drone has struck St. Petersburg. Damage assessment is unknown. St. Pete is 800km from Ukraine, but there are claims the drone flew over 1,200km in a circuitous route to avoid air defense zones. A dock worker took a cell phone video. The drone reportedly flew over Putin’s Palace at Valdai. Russia claims to have shot down two out of three drones, and the damage was done to an oil terminal near the shore, although the extent of the damage is unknown. Caption is translated from the dock worker’s narration.
Bryansk
A drone attack in Bryansk, Russia, struck an oil depot and caused a fire. Fuel tanks are burning in the area. The governor, Alexander Bogomaz, said that some of the drones were suppressed with EW measures.
Bashkortostan
Two days ago, we had protests around the arrest of an activist, but today, there are protests in the capital of Ufa with around 2,000 people. The government forced mobile operators to turn off cell reception in the area, and hundreds of police arrived on the scene to make arrests.
Bashkir singer Altynay Valitov is missing after making a video call where he encouraged people to protest. He was reportedly arrested by police.
Nationalism is waking up in Russia, and this is not good for Putin. People are tired of this war.
Note that, after the military, the police forces have the largest share of the Russian state budget.
T-90 vs Bradley
There is a video going around of an encounter between a T-90 tank and a Bradley IFV, which has gotten quite a lot of attention.
The Bradley uses its 25mm gun to light up the T-90 and causes an explosion, after which the most popular version of the video cuts out and fades to an emblem of the 47th Mechanized Brigade. However, there is a more complete version of the video, and Ryan McBeth has done a breakdown of the shorter version on his substack.
First, Bradley’s fire never penetrated the hull — the crew is seen getting out of the tank in the longer form video and taking shelter in a building only after a drone strike disabled the tank’s engine from above. It looks impressive, but no real damage was done. The explosion was likely the smoke grenades mounted on the hull getting hit and going off simultaneously. The Bradley did not even get a mobility hit.
Second, the tank’s crew responded correctly by keeping the front of the tank towards the incoming fire but did not manage to return fire. The Bradley was moving while it was firing, so major kudos to the Ukrainian gunner for his accurate fire. I can’t imagine what it was like inside that tank getting hit by 25mm rounds like that. As McBeth commented, no doubt the Russian Office of Veteran’s Affairs will deny that their hearing loss is service-related.
In the longer video, after multiple hits, it appears that the tank turret malfunctioned and spun uncontrollably.
So, did a Bradley take out a T-90? Kind of. The tank was actually stopped by a drone strike. We could ask the crew, but they were also taken out by a drone strike only minutes after fleeing the tank.