Ukraine Update 16 March
“Elections,” Burning the Midnight Oil, Incursions, and More!
Hey everyone, I took a few days off to go to L’viv and am back now.
Mobilization
Russia has recruited soldiers from Nepal, Cuba, Sierra Leone, and Somalia, some of whom have become POWs of the AFU. The largest number so far comes from Nepal, estimated at 15,000. Some countries actively support the recruitment effort, while others, like Cuba and Nepal, oppose it. The recruitment often occurs under dubious circumstances, and men are promised jobs or educational visas but are forced to join the military upon arrival in Russia. Recruitment in other countries picked up after Wagner, and the convict pool began to dry. Those interviewed often cite financial reasons for joining, having been promised up to $2,700 a month, but not all of them are actually receiving their pay.
These fighters don’t seem to add up to a significant addition to the Russian army, but I guess they will take what they can get.
Burning Oil
In addition to the earlier attacks addressed in other articles, which have already destroyed 12% of Russia’s refining capacity, two fresh attacks have occurred in the Samara region, some 1,300 km from Ukraine. The Syzran, Kuibyshev, and Novokuibyshevsk refineries and a storage site in Kaluga were all struck.
The firefighter on the video at the Syzran refinery is heard saying, “AVT-6 is done,” and “The K-2 column is on fire.” AVT-6 refines about 70% of Syzran's capacity or about 6 million tons of oil per year.
The damage at the other refineries was limited in scope and probably did not permanently disrupt operations. Repairing Syzran will take over a year.
Fearing Western sanctions, India is cutting off Russia’s transfer of premium crude oil, called ESPO, for at least two months.
Incursions
The attacks by Russian rebels into Russian territory along the northern Ukrainian border continue into their fifth day despite predictions that this is only a raid. Explosions can be heard in videos published today (16 March) from Belgorod city, although the fighting is still on the edge of the urban area. Air raid sirens, panicked residents, and frequent artillery and small arms fire are frequent.
The insurgent forces made a joint statement led by Denis Nikitin, commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps. “Vladimir Putin, the whole world has been watching for several days now how the Russian city of Belgorod, the Belgorod, and Kursk regions have turned into a zone of active hostilities. At the same time, the administration you installed, despite our repeated calls, is preventing the evacuation of the civilian population. In this regard, solely because of your ambitions, peaceful people continue to suffer and die. We urge you to stop this circus, think about the fate of innocent Russians, and allow the evacuation of civilians from the combat zone. Your elections have long since turned into a complete farce. Stop forcing ordinary people to participate in your show at polling stations under bombs and artillery fire. Even forced expression of will is not possible when air raid signals sound. You have long lost your legitimacy, and in the current circumstances, even the appearance of an electoral process has disappeared. It is obvious to everyone that Russia needs immediate and fundamental changes. In Russia, the need for a deep transformation of the relationship between the authorities and the people and a frank conversation about new fair social rules is long overdue. If you are ready to discuss the future of our country without dictatorship and authoritarianism, we, for our part, are ready for such a conversation. If you still have courage and responsibility, get in touch with us in a way convenient for you.”
The Russian MoD has said that not a single Russian Army soldier has been killed and that the incursion has been stopped. However, an interview with a captive senior lieutenant from the Sverdlovsk region told a different story. He said that he had been in a van with other soldiers on a mission to lay mines when their car was fired upon, and he was the sole survivor. He was taken into captivity by the RVC, who now have at least 25 captive Russian soldiers.
Much of the damage shown in videos of the city was done by Russian Army weapons, possibly due to incompetence, possibly as a false flag operation, and possibly … oh, who cares why or how. The rebel forces don’t have air defense or any missiles or rockets, and yet Belgorod is being hit with such weapons. Putin is attacking his own citizens.
Some commenters think this is a bad move by Ukraine, as civilians are now being targeted. First, Ukraine isn’t doing this — these fighters are all from Russia and are almost all Russian citizens. Second, this makes it very hard for Putin to frame the war as something that Russia is winning. Like the German saying from World War II, adopted to modern Russia… “The media tells us we are winning every battle, but the next battle is always a little bit closer to home.”
This is not yet a serious change in the war; it is more of an annoyance and spectacle, but let’s wait and see. It's fun to watch, at any rate. Better than Dune.
But wait, it gets better. Russian Red Cross (not part of, but affiliated with, the International Red Cross) is offering rides out of Belgorod for 5–30 thousand rubles, but “free if you show a picture of a ballot where you voted for Putin.” 5,000 for children under 17, women 17–25 are 10,000, and 25–60 are 13,070 rubles.n For an extra 1000, you get a driver who passed a sobriety test; for an extra 2000, you get an ethnic Russian driver.
But wait, there’s more. A new player has arrived on the scene, calling themselves “Navalny Legion.” They posted a video calling themselves Navalny’s combat units and showing a variety of improvised explosive devices.
“Elections”
I don’t know where to start on this one, but the whole fiasco is comical. From the realistic side, we have gunmen standing by to watch people fill out ballots, protestors setting fire to ballot boxes or dumping a vial of ink into one, and people writing protest ballots, covering them with “Putin is an asshole” or “Hague”.
The image below sums it up. Broken streets, piles of trash, dilapidated buildings, and “I’m for Putin.”
Losses for 12–15 March
Let’s start with Ukrainian losses — a HIMARS decoy and a few vehicles, including 14 tanks, 6 IFVs, and three helicopters, that were caught on the ground at a refueling station. Please remember that Andrew Perpetua on Twitter posts all of these in spreadsheet format with links to the videos that verify the losses so that you can watch each and every one yourself.
Russia lost 21 tanks, 64 IFVs, 24 APCs, and quite a few loaves, golf carts, and an IL-76 (which I talked about earlier). Golf carts (Chinese “Desertcross-1000) are being seen almost every day now, so what I initially thought might be a one-off has now turned into a trend.
Obviously, these numbers are… disturbing for the Russian side. The ratios here are not working in their favor and have been getting worse on average.
Medvedev off his Meds
Dima has publicly denied the existence of Latvia now and threatened to hang their president, Edgars Rinkēvičs.
Medvedev is fulfilling the role that Zhirinovsky filled in 2008, when he tested the waters, getting the world ready for the invasion of Crimea by repeatedly hinting that Russia has the right to intervene in Ukraine “if the population opposes the actions of Kyiv.”
Medvedev also published a list of seven demands of Ukraine to end the fighting, including the “complete and unconditional surrender of Ukraine” and the following…
Note that these are almost identical to the conditions set in March 2022, which Kyiv rejected (for obvious reasons) with the support of Western powers, including Biden and Johnson. It is essentially and openly stating that Ukraine and the concept of Ukrainians will cease to exist. It is admitting to the world that genocide was the goal all along.
Weird Rubles
I don’t know what’s going on here, but the ruble is acting funny. Trading apparently stopped at 2300 UTC after a sharp spike in the price. There was a dip on March 12, which hit nearly 86 to the USD that lasted only a few minutes.
Notes
There is a RUMINT of a distress call from a Russian ballistic missile submarine. Funny, if true. The K-554 Alexander III SSBN was conducting test launches of the Bulava SS-NX-30 missile. I stress that this is unconfirmed and will be difficult to confirm, given that Russia is secretive about its naval losses (see Kursk incident) and the only people watching are the lucky Sailors who happen to be keeping an eye on the Russians. I don’t know who you are, boys, but you have the watch. This author is a former USN Submariner (among other jobs) and Russian linguist.