Ukraine Update 14 February
Happy Valentines, French Spies, War Expands
Happy Valentine’s Day
Ukraine has sunk another landing ship in the Black Sea, this time the Caesar Kunikov. The $330,000,000 warship was used to ferry supplies and patrol the coastline, although it was designed to facilitate amphibious assaults. The namesake of the ship was a Soviet officer from Rostov who was born in 1909 and served in the Second World War in the Black Sea. The interesting thing about this is that he died on 14 February 1943. Ukraine wanted to let Russia know that they could choose when to strike and chose the date perfectly. Below is a frame from the video released by Group 13, which coordinated the naval drone attack, which involved at least five drones that all struck the ship.
French Spies
Okay, Russian spies in France. Economist released a report that French intelligence has uncovered a vast disinformation campaign in Europe bent on undermining support for Ukraine. Nearly 200 websites were designed to spread false information about the conflict under the codename Portal Kombat. The effort also targeted Germany and Poland. Most of the interference is done on social media and messaging platforms like Telegram. In 2024, a senior NATO official in Brussels said that disinformation campaigns could rise to the level of an armed attack. Russian entities also create websites that target individual cities such as Kherson or Mariupol.
Iran
There has been a massive explosion in Iran that was visible up to sixty kilometers away, where the main gas line for the country exploded. I would assume that this was not an accident, but who caused it is up for debate. Israel? Ukraine? The US? Someone else who hates Iran? (which is nearly everyone in the area) The explosion happened between Shahrekord and Borujen. That is the most useless sentence in this article since nobody reading this, including me, knows where those two places are. This line is a major artery between port facilities, where the refineries are, and the major cities of Tehran, Esfahan, and Qom.
Politics
The US Senate passed the aid bill for Ukraine, which still falls far short of what is needed and is too little, too late, but at least it’s something. On the other hand, it has not passed the House, and under ideal circumstances, this process will not occur until the first Tuesday in March, thanks to the archaic and intentionally dysfunctional rules in Congress.
Democrats won a special election in NY to replace a corrupt Republican official, and they beat the polls by … wait for it … 17 points. Yes, seventeen points. Polls just prior to the election had the democratic candidate up by anywhere from one to three points, while the results were 58.7% to 41.3%. This is consistent with other polling and election results since 2020. But how does this relate to Ukraine?
This Democratic victory might cause some Republicans in the House to rethink their allegiance to Trump and the Christian Fascists who control (for now) the Speaker’s chair. There is also the news that the Republicans are having fundraising difficulties while Democrats are sitting on a record amount banked for the coming election year. Perhaps supporting Putin and lying about immigration aren’t all that popular after all?
It would take three republican defections to place Hakeem Jefferies in the Speaker chair, or the same three could threaten Johnson with such a vote and get the aid bill passed tomorrow. Will it happen? No. Trump owns Republicans. All of them. They are caught in a binding of their own making. The MAGA 20% won’t vote for anyone who defies Trump, but the Lincoln 20% won’t vote for anyone who doesn’t. Without both groups, they can’t win an election, and they can’t appease both as long as Trump is still the candidate.
On the Front
Russian forces have cut off the northern supply line to Avdiivka. One of the main problems in Avdiivka is Russian air superiority and their ability to fling glide bombs from a considerable distance at Ukrainian positions. F-16s could help to alleviate this. When will they arrive? Well, not in December, as everyone hoped, and not in January, either, it seems.
Russia hit an electrical station in the Ukrainian-controlled town of Dnipro, which has caused problems with the local grid. This was the 40th attack against that powerplant since October, and they finally caused a blackout.
Other News
The International Institute for Strategic Studies estimates that Russia can produce around 90 tanks a month from its stockpiles of around 4,000 old tanks if one includes T-55s. This is still fewer than they are losing. In 2023, approximately 200 tanks were built from scratch, and 1,000 restored. Verified losses (by OSINT/non-UA sources) of Russian tanks total the entire working inventory of pre-invasion tanks in the Russian arsenal. Everything lost in 2024 is either new or restored.
In an interview with a volunteer from a Russian hospital near the front lines, the nurse reported that the hospital has nothing to work with except soap. There are far too many wounded for the number of beds, there is no equipment, and no bandages or other single-use items.
A Russian soldier in unit number 41680 complains that there is lawlessness on the front lines, that soldiers are being beaten and threatened with death by their commanders, and anyone who complains will be shot and written off as 200 (KIA).
In a Valentine’s Day event, a returned Russian serviceman beat his one-and-a-half-year-old daughter on video and sent the video to his fiancee. The mother was fined for “failure of performance of parental duties” and the couple were married on 14 February. Don’t click on that link.
Russia continues to send fake peace offerings to the West. I will remind readers that Russia can have peace whenever it wants it by leaving Ukraine.