Ukraine Update 13 March
Ides of March Approach, Winds of Change
The Ides of March
March is a bad time for Russian leaders, historically, an ironic fact given that Moscow sees itself as the cultural inheritor of the Roman empire. Tsar Nicholas I died on March 2, Tsar Alexander II on March 13, Ivan the Terrible on March 28, Tsar Paul I on March 24, and Stalin on March 5. Here’s to keeping traditions alive!
Winds of Change
There has been a noticeable change in frontline reporting on both sides in the past few days, with Ukrainian reports getting more optimistic and Russian reports more pessimistic. Zelensky claimed that the lines had stabilized, that Russia’s offensive had run out of steam, and that Ukrainian forces had actually made insignificant advances in some areas. I say “insignificant” because this war won’t be decided by who controls what village — it will end with the collapse of either Ukraine or Russia.
Russian democratic forces are attacking along the northern Ukrainian-Russian border and have advanced kilometers into actual Russian territory with perhaps brigade-level strength. Ilya Ponomarev, a leader in the “Freedom of Russia” legion, has said it is a limited incursion, using only light weapons because the West won’t allow heavier weapons to be used. They are only using Soviet-era and captured Russian armored vehicles. He said to think of the incursion as more of a reconnaissance mission.
Please note that there are three groups conducting these missions — The Russian Volunteer Corps, the Siberian Battalion, and the Liberty Legion of Russia. The RVC is an actual Russian neo-Nazi group whose main complaint is that Putin is attacking the wrong country and doing so incompetently. They are not “good guys” but the enemy of my enemy… The SB is made up of Russian citizens from Siberia, or “non-ethnic Russians,” who fight alongside Ukraine to oppose Putin and do not recruit from among captured soldiers. The LLR, sometimes called the Freedom of Russia Legion (Freedom and Liberty are the same word in Russian), began as a unit of the Russian army that defected on 27 February 2022 and accepts volunteers from among POWs, active duty Russian soldiers, and Russian citizens who wish to join. The latter two groups can cautiously be labeled as “good guys.” But they are still Russian.
The groups claim to have taken control of the town of Tyotkino, population 4,000, just across the RU-UA border. They claim that Russian forces retreated and that many soldiers were captured. I should point out that between Tyotkino and another “reconnaissance in force” near Nova Tavolzhanka, these Russian forces have captured 40 square kilometers of territory of Russia from Russia, with Russian forces defeating the Russian army, and done so with minimal casualties in only 48 hours. Let’s compare this to Avdiivka, which cost Russia 30–40,000 dead and 10 years.
These forces are not subordinate to the Ukrainian Army but to the Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate, which further supports the idea that this raid is more psychological and strategic than tactical. I doubt that they will extend their raid beyond Ukrainian artillery range.
Another oil refinery was struck at least twice last night, this one in Ryazan, Russia. Russia has suspended all gasoline exports for at least six months after six distillation units were destroyed in the past two months. There was a blackout in Voronezh, Russia region, after probable strikes on the electric infrastructure there, and the airport in St. Petersburg was temporarily closed for several hours. The distillation tower was struck, which is a really important part of the process for those like me who don’t know a darn thing about turning dead trees* into gasoline. It’s basically where oil is turned into everything else. This is a simplified graphic, but these towers require a lot of foreign parts to fix, and it will take months. Meanwhile, the refinery is down, the town is out of work, and gasoline is getting more expensive.
And IL-76 crashed for no known reason in Russia, killing all aboard. The plane was en route to Ivanvo Severny airbase, which has most of the rest of Russia’s A-50 Mainstay fleet, the early warning aircraft. Three of these have been lost in the past month; two were shot down while in flight, and another was allegedly destroyed while undergoing maintenance/upgrades at the airfield. It was rumored that the IL-76 had a flight crew for one of the A-50s on board.
Russian State “Congressional” Deputy Oleg Nilov accused Russia of sending six billion dollars to the Netherlands, which is an “unfriendly country,” because they bought flowers on March 8th, International Women’s Day. Having lived in Russia, I can say that, brought guestimate here, every third store is either a flower shop or a pharmacy.
The first car with Russian license plates, an Audi, has been seized in Lithuania. It will be sold, and the money will be sent to Ukraine.
Dehumanizing Russian Fact of the Day
75% of German POWs held by Russia died, while only 2% of those held by civilized forces (UK & US) died. Today, the Red Cross has access to all Russian POWs held by Ukraine, and does not have access to any Ukrainian POWs held by Russia.
The discharge petition is circulating on Capital Hill, and the following representatives have not yet signed it but could possibly be convinced to do so. Contacting them may speed up the process of getting aid to Ukraine.
*about dead trees and dinosaurs. Contrary to popular belief, dinosaurs never turned into oil — oil and coal come from dead trees.