Ukraine Update 12 January

Must Read Stories, Middle East Chaos, Avdiivka, Ancient Disinformation

Recommended Reading

This isn’t my story, so here’s the link—a must-read account of a Russian soldier in Ukraine.

Another story, a must-read account of a Ukrainian soldier in Russian captivity.

Middle East Chaos

Putin is playing a dangerous game in the Middle East. By trying to distract the West and others with the Houthi and Hamas, he is going to start causing strife for the Saudis and UAE. Russia’s foreign policy is both far-sighted and near-sighted at the same time, as opportunism seems to be the dominant philosophy. Everyone who does business with Russia gets burned, and Hamas is now realizing this — the Houthis are next, and Iran won’t be far behind.

Avdiivka and the Front

Russian progress around Avdiivka has been extremely costly. The battle has raged for months, with daily gains in the tens of meters. The town is extremely well fortified, as are the smaller villages surrounding it, and long range Ukrainian artillery is supporting the forces in the area. Bradley fighting vehicles are very useful, taking out the infantry in Russian advances before they have a chance to get anywhere. Armored vehicles without infantry supporting them are extremely vulnerable. Russia has made more progress within the northern pincer movement but seems stalled to the south. Below is an image of Russian losses in one small part of the front near Avdiivka.

Positional engagements continue all along the front.

The Arsenal of Democracy

European Commission spokesperson Bernselle says that European industry has production capacities that far exceed one million artillery shells and that the goal will be reached by spring. This was announced at an event by the group “Renewal of Europe.” It’s worth noting that while this is a big step up from the 300,000 shells delivered last year, it is still short of what Ukraine needs.

As I have noted before, the idea that Russia can outproduce the West, even with the help of North Korea and Iran, is absurd. Poland alone has more industrial capacity in almost every sector than Russia, excluding raw ores and fossil fuels.

There is a lot of talk about shell parity when it comes to artillery — how many shells each side is firing per day. Of course, this is one indicator, but the issue is always more nuanced. Not all shells, not all guns, not all artillerists, and not all targeting teams are equal. The majority of Ukrainian guns are M-777 towed pieces, with about 300 delivered, minus some destroyed and adding some that were delivered but not reported. There are also many mobile guns, such as CAESAR and Krab, but these are far fewer, making up perhaps 20% of the total guns. Then there is the Ukrainian Bohdana, a long-range mobile gun on a truck chassis. There are very few of these.

When all is said and done, if Ukraine were to reach shell parity with Russia, Ukraine would have a decided advantage in artillery fire, and actual artillery parity — the total effectiveness of artillery fire, regardless of rounds fired — would require perhaps only a 1:3 ratio. Better guns, better targeting, more consistent shells, and better training make a difference.

If the EU is able to deliver the shells by spring, and Ukraine is to increase its usage to shell parity with Russia, that would mean about 10,000 shells per day and lead to pushing back Russian lines in many sectors of the front. This is very much an artillery war despite the role drones are playing.

That being said, predictions are tenuous. We are looking here at one factor — the number of shells. Though dozens of other factors could come into play to push the advantage to one side or the other, the outlook is heavily on the Ukrainian side in nearly all of them. The situation is unlikely to improve for Russia.

“We will not run anywhere. Give us more shells, and we will go forward. If we go backward, our children will die.” Zelensky, in Estonia, 11 January, 2024

Ecuador is turning over old Soviet military vehicles in exchange for newer American equipment to the tune of $200 million. I wonder where that old equipment will end up. The condition of the equipment is questionable, but spare parts are always useful.

PM Sunak is in Kyiv, promising a record amount of military aid, $2.5 billion, and “the largest batch of drones” ever delivered to Ukraine.

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Patient Confidentiality

In an absolute turn to the absurd, doctor-patient confidentiality is now considered a tool of the bourgeoisie in Russia. Starting in 2024, visits to the doctor in Russia will be audio recorded and reviewed by the Ministry of Truth… oh, wait, the Moscow Department of Health. This will be in accordance with law number 323-F3 from 2011, “On the basis for the health of citizens of Russia.” Whether this is about draftees avoiding mobilization or restricting abortion access, or perhaps both, is anyone’s guess.

Some Old Disinformation Stories

In the 1980s, 85% of the KGB budget was spent on disinformation, ideological subversion, or active measures in Russia. Fifteen thousand people worked in the department. This is known from defectors and from the KGB archives. Their costs included coopting Western journalists, setting up newspapers and journals with KGBJ-controlled editorial boards, and planting stories using false sources. It also included publishing fake scientific research.

Some of the stories that they planted were that the USA invented HIV/AIDS, in which they paid two East German doctors to publish their faked research, and then the story ended up on Dan Rather’s show in America, which, for my younger readers, was a widely watched television news program. The narrative was that it was done to exterminate gay people and African-Americans. The CIA conspiracy of the JFK assassination originated in Russia, and many of the ‘documents’ associated with that conspiracy came from KGB fake document factories. They did stories about rich Americans harvesting organs from South American children and how the CIA tried to assassinate the Pope. There are KGB documents and testimony from three defectors that corroborate this.

Under Ronald Reagan, for the first time, the US started responding to the fake stories coming out of the USSR instead of ignoring them, as past administrations had. The thinking had been that if you ignored it, it would go away, and by addressing it, they would only call attention to it.

The Obama birther conspiracy originated in Russia as well. In 2016, the Russian government organized protests outside of mosques in Texas via Facebook posts.

In the sweetest twist of Irony, the NYT did an expose on the implanted Russian disinformation and yet is itself extremely vulnerable to it, having taken no lesson from their printing of fake Russian stories about the Holodomor a century ago. One of the things that tipped off detectives in the AIDS story was grammar — they said “virus flu” instead of “flu virus.” Rather, like how describing Zelensky as a “waif in his underpants” exposed Seymore Hersh — not that he needed any exposure. That phrase is lifted straight from Russian culture and has never appeared in English before.

I wanted to call attention to all of this so that people will begin to understand the scale the depth of the KGB/FSB operations against America. These operations go back to the 1950s and continue today and are even accelerated today by the use of social media, the internet, and the lack of an iron curtain that prevented personal contact with reporters. And yet, after all this time, Western journalists still fail to recognize the infiltration of Russian disinformation into their publications. Russian disinformation is no joke, and it is something that the average American needs to be aware of if we want to keep our democracy.

Keeping on the line of strange aspects in the information war, here is a picture of a protest in New York after the US bombed Yemen. That sign is professionally made, and yet this protest happened only a few hours after the actual bombing. Where did they get that sign?

I apologize for giving everyone so much homework today. This stuff is worth watching and reading. Think of it as learning to swim in the information sea.

Absurd Intellectual Theft

Tatiana Navka, Peskov’s wife, a figure skater 32 years younger than her husband, stole a Ukrainian song to use in a figure skating show, changing the lyrics to Russian but keeping the music identical to the original. Russia makes nothing of its own — it’s all stolen. Several months ago, RT broadcast a music video of the glory of the Russian destruction of Mariupol that also mimicked a Ukrainian song. Navka has also performed using Schedryk (Carol of the Bells) by Ukrainian composer Leontovych and What a Moonlit Night by Starytskyi and Lysenko.

New Ice Rink in Novosibirsk

Novosibirsk, Russia, has flooded in -15C temperatures thanks to a burst water pipe flooding more than a hundred buildings. Of course, this also disrupted the heat supply to those buildings.

Izvestia, a Russian pro-Kremlin paper, reported that 70 percent of the national infrastructure is in a state of decay… in 2022. From among the assembly of boyars, Tsar Putin the Last has decided to blame Alexander Kurenkov for the problems, as he is the Emergency Situations Minister.

This guy is going to fall out of a window soon. He’s in Moscow.

I geolocated the footage, and he’s only a few blocks from my favorite Yoga studio in Moscow. Also, it’s right next to Lubyanka prison, where the FSB/KGB tortured people, so that’s convenient.

I don’t know if you know this or not, but I also write incomplete sci-fi stories on Medium on my second channel, or bookshelf, or whatever they call it, Rusty Writings: Stories of Steel and Silicon.

And here’s another chance to support me! Don’t miss out! Exclusive content is already on the site! Get an early look at my Complete Guide of Supporting Ukraine, which should be in its final form soon.