Geopolitics

Ukraine, the USA, the EU and Brexit on D-Day

Britain played its traditional transatlantic bridging role and led the way in providing weaponry for Ukraine that the US or EU would not supply earlier

Many years ago (1999) I was headhunted to resolve an IT project holdup in a European retail bank with worldwide banking centres. The issue was one of cultural differences which had bogged down the software project. The software developer was a US company and their somewhat abrasive but generally capable US project manager in Europe was struggling with the particular European culture.

As a Brit project director I was expected to bridge the cultural gap and get the incomplete software working and live at midnight on 31st December 1999 (with the rolling go-live starting in Tokyo). For new currency reasons that time and date was absolutely non-negotiable. My team of developers was based in the US and I was in the middle, juggling the development and the client’s worldwide implementation teams.

In microcosm, this was typical of the situation that the UK has found itself in over the 20th century.

In World War 1 and World War 2 the UK was an island fighting a war on several fronts while the US lagged behind and Europe crumbled.

And again in the 21st Century, the UK is bridging that gap.

History repeats itself

Now we have the Ukraine War.

Because of Putin’s so-called red lines the US has been very cautious about the supply of weapons to Ukraine with a ‘carefully calibrated’ and slow increase in lethality and range. And the US is still holding back on F-16s and ATACMS (6 June 2023).

The EU has dithered. Germany has dithered and Olaf Schulz has finally agreed to supply tanks and IRIS-T AA systems.

Poland and the Baltic states have pushed hard forward with supply.

Victor Orban in Hungary is on the fence, holding back EU weapons funding and apparently trying to stay in Putin’s good books.

NATO has not supplied any weapons directly.

Most Western powers were all waiting to see if Russia would prevail. Letting Ukraine be annexed in its entirety was much more palatable than a major war with Russia in the heart of Europe.

Yes, that was Putin’s thinking as well.

The UK got them to ‘man-up’

The UK in contrast, was early in supplying equipment and training, long range anti-ship missiles, Javelins and other anti-tank weaponry, anti-aircraft systems, Challenger tanks and Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine, along with heavyweight diplomatic support.

There was hidden supply too — intelligence and cyber support.

And by being the pathfinder, the UK has shown that Putin’s red lines are BS.

The USA and EU are following in the UK’s wake.

Too small to risk nukes on

Despite what the idiots on Solovyov’s Russia1 TV ‘Evening’ show and other say, the UK is ‘too small’ for Putin to risk using nuclear weapons on and bring on the wrath of NATO. That’s if he thinks that they will work at all and can not be shot down.

Today, the UK is the second country in the world in terms of military aid to Ukraine. Since February 24, 2022, the United States has allocated $38 billion in aid to Ukraine, Britain — $4.6 billion. (Telegram)

There is no question that the UK is punching well above its weight.

Brexit

I’ll make no bones about the fact that I supported Brexit. Certainly the economic case was weak. But from my perspective the EU was a self-perpetuating bureaucracy and Brexit was for me a matter of independence. I hate bureaucracies. A break had to be made and I voted for it.

And now we see how the post-Brexit independent UK in its ‘mid-Atlantic’ political and geographical situation has bridged the gap once again and led the way in arming Ukraine.

Like him or loathe him, Boris Johnson was the first major western leader to visit Ukraine during war, and Rishi Sunak has followed suit. I’m not sure if Truss made it in the very short time she was UK Prime Minister. Did I miss any others out? The UK’s Defence Ministers have been actively engaged in shuttle diplomacy and have not minced their words about the Russian invasion.

To be fair, Ursula von der Layen, as President of the European Commission, saw which way the wind was blowing and has aggressively dragged the EU forward in supporting Ukraine.

If the UK was still inside the EU then it’s very unlikely that Ukraine would now be starting a major counter-offensive against Russia today, the 6th June.

Some times the easy way is not the better way.

6th June 1944 is the day that the Allies hit the beaches in Normandy.

D-day.

Lest we forget.

And 1999?

It was a stressful Christmas period for me and my teams, but the software went live worldwide as planned at midnight, 31st December 1999.

Follow me and I guarantee variety in your inbox with some unusual perspectives!

My novels are available at my Gumroad bookstore. Also at Amazon and Apple