Ukraine War

Ukraine: More Clicks on the Danger Scale

A quick report of stories that show increased tensions as the end of one year of war approaches

Dateline: Feb 16, 2023

Backdrop

One senior Russian source with knowledge of decision-making said Putin’s hopes of burnishing his reputation had been dashed.

“Ahead, it will be even more difficult and more costly for both Ukraine and Russia,” said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “Economic losses on this scale are not worth a few conquered territories.”

“I don’t believe in a major offensive, or in the possibility of a Russian victory against the whole civilised world,” said a second senior source close to the Kremlin, who also declined to be named.

The source said Russia was at a disadvantage in both military technology and motivation, but that the war would still continue “for a very long time”. — Reuters

And worrying:

Dateline: Feb 14, 2023.

I’ll keep it brief, just stories in a quick news roundup as activities intensify.

Russian Naval Movements

The text of the above post on Telegram:

At least 1 Russian KILO class submarine made a surface transit from Novorossiysk to Sevastopol today. Note the heavy escort to defend against Ukrainian drones / USVs.

Likely to load with Kalibr cruise missiles ahead of an attack on Ukrainian targets. — source: @covertshores

There are also reported shipping movements of the Russian Northern Fleet. Norwegian intelligence reported about Russian ships of the Northern Fleet with nuclear weapons, which went to sea for the first time since the times of the USSR (Ukraine Telegram):

Travel advice

France, Canada, advise their citizens to leave/avoid travel to Belarus.

There are obviously concerns about the situation in Belarus and rumours that Brazil, too, has issued a travel advisory to its citizens.

Molodova coup plot planned by Russia

President of Moldova Maia Sandu spoke about Russia’s plan, which was revealed by Ukraine

At the briefing, she said the Russians were plotting a coup d’état in Moldova, organizing opposition protests and using trained plainclothes fighters to seize government buildings and hostages. The Russians counted on the pro-Russian party “Shor”, criminal groups, some former security forces, and people associated with the oligarch Vlad Plahotniuk. The plan also provided for sabotage and the involvement of specialists from Belarus, Montenegro, and Serbia.

The main goal of the Russians is to bring their puppet government to power, stop the country’s European integration process, and use Moldova in the war against Ukraine.

Diplomacy?

Hungary has been fence-sitting despite being a NATO and EU member.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Hungary, Péter Szijjártó, arrived in Minsk for talks with his Belarusian counterpart Sergej Aleynik, where he will present a peaceful position in connection with the ongoing war in Ukraine

“Obviously, many people will attack me because of the visit, but our position is clear: communication channels must be kept open. If we had not behaved in this way, I would not have been able to convey the message of the call for peace today either,” the Head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Hungary wrote on his Facebook page.

The fighter jet red line

It’s changed colour to orange and is now taking on a greenish hue…

NATO can provide combat aircraft to Ukraine, — Stoltenberg

As the Secretary-General noted during the briefing, NATO allies will not intervene in the war waged against Ukraine but may supply fighter jets. At the moment, they are not a priority, and it is much more important to deliver the already agreed equipment.

He expressed the opinion that the Russian offensive has already begun and Putin is not going to prepare for peace, so the speed of arms deliveries to Ukraine can save lives.

Intelligence

The Washington Post: The United States is warning Ukraine that it is facing a decisive stage in the war. Biden administration officials believe that the critical moment will come this spring, when Russia is expected to launch an offensive and Ukraine a counteroffensive to try to regain lost territory (although the NATO secretary general has said that the Russian offensive has already begun).

Planning?

NATO is developing a plan in the event of the bloc’s countries participating in several conflicts at the same time.

At a meeting in Brussels, defense ministers are expected to sign a guidance document outlining investment requirements for allies to prepare for any potential future military action.

In the secret part of the document, the ways of simultaneous participation of NATO in the so-called high-intensity conflict under Article 5, when the member states of the Alliance will have to defend each other, as well as beyond the limits of this article, will be defined. — Bloomberg

Russian government on the move?

A massive departure of Russian Air Force aircraft from Chkalovsky is recorded. Also present were aircraft from the “special flight squadron” (used by the Russian President and other government officials). — Ukraine War Intel News

That’s the end of this brief news roundup.