Geopolitics

Ukraine: Israel’s Weapons Quandary

Iron Dome? No way! A new government in Tel Aviv has caused severe diplomatic waves as its Ukraine policy balance tips more towards Moscow

Musical chairs

The Israeli government which lost power in late 2022 was not noted for outspoken support in favour of Ukraine, although in February 2022, Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid spoke out against the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Lapid’s statements were criticized by opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu (now Prime Minister again).

The new Israeli government will be even more muted. So said Eli Cohen, the new Foreign Minister as the 2023 New Year started:

“On the issue of Russia and Ukraine, there is one thing that we will certainly be doing, and that is less talking about it in public,” Eli Cohen, the government’s foreign minister, said in a speech Monday before noting that Tel Aviv’s humanitarian aid to Kyiv will continue.

Cohen also revealed that he planned to speak with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov [on 2nd January], who Israeli leaders have shunned since the February invasion. (Responsible Statecraft)

The new Israeli government

This is the most extreme government in Israel’s history and its formation has already led to widespread demonstrations in the country.

The most religious and hard-line government in Israel’s history has been sworn in.

Benjamin Netanyahu returns as prime minister, after his Likud party formed a coalition with ultranationalist and ultra-Orthodox Jewish allies.

There is domestic and international concern it will inflame the conflict with the Palestinians, damage the judiciary and restrict minority rights.

Mr Netanyahu has promised to pursue peace and safeguard civil rights. — BBC

Like it or not, Israel has been forced to work closely with Russia to manage the powder keg in the Middle East.

A chequered history — mostly black

Russia, like its predecessor, the Soviet Union, has had a long-time interest in the Middle East. The country’s relationship with Israel has varied — during the Cold War it was frosty but has warmed up in recent decades. The Israeli government always has to strike a delicate balance with Syria — a puppet of Russia — as its closest neighbour.

The historical backdrop is decades of Soviet support for enemies of Israel — Palestinian terrorists, support and weapons for Syria and Egypt during the Six Day War.

Relations between Israel and Russia improved during the recent and ongoing Syrian civil war and both countries are coordinating efforts to avoid unintentional confrontation there.

Support for Iran is also crucial to Russia’s influence in the Middle East, and Russia supplies Iran with equipment for the country’s controversial nuclear energy program.

This is a problem for Israel as Iran in a sworn enemy but Russia can exert influence — or it could until it ran into problems in Ukraine and now depends on Iran for the supply of drones and technology. There are even suggestions that Russia is seeking ballistic missiles from Iran. So, Israel has to swallow hard. This is realpolitik of the most unpleasant flavour.

And today, there are over one million Russian Jews in Israel.

Realpolitik

Bur realpolitik also has an influence on Ukraine as Kyiv has said in recent days:

In a special interview with i24NEWS, Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Mykhailo Podolyak said Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “can be an effective mediator” between the warring parties of Russia and Ukraine.

“I have no doubt that Netanyahu can be an effective mediator since he understands precisely what modern wars are and what is the essence of mediation under these conditions,” Podolyak said.

He claimed, however, that “Russia does not want there to be a real negotiation,” and that the invading country only wants Kyiv to surrender “under the name of ‘negotiations’.” — i24news.tv

So, the government in Kyiv is acknowledging Israel’s position, but discrediting Russia’s intentions. It’s my opinion that Russia does not seek real negotiations, it just wants to buy time to re-group and re-arm. It will settle for nothing less than the the total capitulation or destruction of Ukraine as a sovereign independent nation.

Ukraine wants defensive weapons from Israel

That is no secret. Israel’s hugely effective Iron Dome system has long been on Kyiv’s wish list but Israel has declined to supply it.

There have been threats of retaliation from Russia.

Russia allegedly warned Israel that it would take retaliatory measures if Israeli-made air defense missiles or interceptors would be obtained by Ukraine, either directly or through third parties. — Yahoo News

The supply of weapons is even less likely now with Netanyahu’s new government in Tel Aviv.

But with the USA now committed to supplying Patriot air defence missile systems to Ukraine, the Iron Dome pressure might ease a little. Patriot systems have a longer range (100 miles) than the quoted maximum 45 miles of Iron Dome. And Russia will get the message, despite its ranting about World War III getting nearer.

A grey area?

There have been rumours that Israel has been supplying Ukraine with intelligence on Iranian drones — this could include the technology and even the shipments to Russia.

Certainly Kyiv seems to have highly detailed information about the contract that Putin has with the Ayatollah in Teheran.

This is not entirely surprising as it is thought that Israel has a strong humint presence in Iran (they are certainly capable of carrying out assassinations there). And it’s intelligence about Iranian weapons not Russia.

But there are other considerations too.

There is now growing concern [in Israel] that the experience received in Ukraine could allow Iran to finesse its ability to attack Israeli cities. — Yahoo News

The power calculus is now becoming horribly complex.

So what’s the tipping point?

What would completely wreck this metastable balance of Middle East interests between Israel and Russia?

The question has arisen as to what Putin is trading with Iran in exchange for thousands of Shahed drones. There have been suggestions that nuclear technology might be on the table. There is little doubt that if this proves to be accurate then Israel would have very serious concerns about such a move and that it would tip that balance.

Conclusion

One thing is sure. Whatever the public statements, Tel Aviv will be bracing itself for a more convoluted situation vis a vis Syria if the Russia/Iran/Ukraine problem evolves in the wrong direction.

Netanyahu has difficult internal power balance problems to manage, with a very hard right element in his government expressing extreme views on the Palestinians, education, LBGTQ+ and pluralism in Israel (the list goes on). This has caused concern in the USA and other countries. But we have yet to hear what these wilder elements might want to do about Iran.

I’m not optimistic.

I should add that Israel has been supplying humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

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…realpolitik madness

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