Ukraine is winning the air war. Russia lost nine planes in the last ten days, including a 350 million dollar A 50/U radar plane
These losses are a national security risk. Russia finds itself in a rapidly worsening situation. Without sufficient radar planes, Russian jets become vulnerable.
The arrival of more Western air defense systems and F16s might turn what is left of Russia’s air force into scrap metal. Russia had nine modernized “Beriev” A50M/Us, now they are down to seven.
The combat role of these planes is early warning and control. Since Ukraine has shot down another spy plane in January, Russian aircraft losses have been mounting. Russia lost a A-50, a SU34 and a IL-22M in a single day. Their combined worth is over 500 million dollars.
This takedown shows that Ukrainian command control continues to make the most out of limited resources
Russian aerospace forces (VKS) suffered from severe limitations prior to this full scale invasion. Many of Russia’s older aircraft such as MIG 29, Mig31, Su24, and Su25 are not combat ready. By August, 2023, this had resulted in at least 48 non combat aircraft losses.
Russia is huge. AWACS are needed to protect their own airspace or airspace in other theaters, such as Syria
AWACS planes are practically flying data centers. For any NATO country, the loss of an AWACS and its personnel would also be an enormous setback.
This is downing of another A-50 is huge. It paves the way for F-16’s to succeed.
The plane was downed in Russia’s Krasnodar region which is located in Southern Russia. Ukrainian main directorate of intelligence (GUR) made the following statement:
The Russian A-50 was shot down by the S-200. The S-200M “Vega-M” is the upgraded version of the S-200B with solid fuel boosters. The max range is increased to 240 km (with an AWACS aircraft — up to 255 km)
Given Ukraine’s range, they may be shooting down more radar planes in other parts of Russia
The other option would be sabotage at Russian airfields. 5 aircrew and 10 mission crew. That’s still a significant loss of the mission crew of what should be very rare skill sets in their military.
The S-200 Vega M is a heat seeking missile with a range of 250 km. One missile was taken out by flares. The other second one directly hit the A 50 plane.
The Institute for the Study of War reports that Russian ultranationalists blamed the incident on systemic issues with the VKS.
The Russian bloggers admit that due to sanctions the plane will be difficult to replace
Russian sources claim that the Ukrainian missiles had missed the target. Then, a Russian S-300 missile downed the spy plane. In my opinion, the Russians are incompetent.
This version reminds me of a “Road Runner and Coyote” story arc. I suppose blaming the failure on a human rather than Russia’s dysfunctional air defense is easier to sell to Russia’s own people.
Oddly enough, the version that an eleven meter Soviet era missile was flying through Russian airspace for hundreds of kilometers and destroyed this plane makes more sense.
Russia’s collapsing weapon export business has been falling off a cliff in the past two years
These losses won’t help to restore their customer’s trust in Russia’s weapon systems. What is air defense doing? Once again, Private Conscriptovich was asleep at the wheel.
The loss of the airframe hurts, and the loss of 15 experienced airmen hurts even more
According to the Royal Services Institute in London, the Russian air ops “are constrained by the availability of pilots with sufficient experience to carry out key missions.”
In November UK intelligence assessed that Russia may take more risk by flying their spy planes closer to the frontline.
Russia seems to be bad at risk assessment. Knowing that these corrupt and incompetent thugs are maintaining 6000 nuclear warheads really makes me sleep better.
Military pilots are hard to find, expensive to train, and even harder to replace. Russia’s financial resources for the air force are limited.
The Nazis also experienced a terminal decline of the Luftwaffe by 1944. But , back then, pilots were easier to train. The planes were less sophisticated and it took a lot less expertise to operate them.
Due to Russia’s collapsing demographics, men aged 18 to 35 are in short supply. The operation, construction, and maintenance of military aircraft require highly skilled labor.
Russian industry must be working overtime to modernize a new A-50 as a replacement for the ones they lost
The cost — potentially 300 million dollars — is significant. Time pressure makes accidents during the construction process more likely. Meanwhile, the Russians rapidly are losing their ability to control the air over southern Ukraine.
Another issue is the personnel needed to man the plane
“This loss will be difficult to replace due to the number of hardware ‘black box’ sets in the A-50U version of the aircraft produced by Intel and other Western manufacturers,” “These are required for the digital on-board electronics systems but are blocked for sale to Russia by sanctions regimes.” Jacob Mersey
The Russian air force is the same paper tiger as its ground forces and navy. These losses are unsustainable.
On paper, the VKS seems formidable. Remember, nothing is at seems in Russia. The devil is in the details. Like in any other dictatorship, behind the shiny facade there is bottomless pit. Russia’s air force suddenly appears 6 feet tall instead of 12 feet tall.
This source estimates that Russia has 3649 active aircraft. Only 25 percent are fighters, and a fraction is bombers
Roughly 40 percent are helicopters. 25 percent are transport and training craft.
At 50 percent readiness rate, Russia has 1825 planes available to it. At 70, there are 2554 planes available. At 75 percent, there are 2737 planes available. At 80 percent readiness rate, there are 2919 planes available.
In 2023, between 24 and 36 new combat aircraft were delivered to the Russian VKS. Twelve of them were fighter aircraft
Russia’s aviation industry is plagued by systemic problems. Putin extended the life span of Russia’s Mig 31 airframes from 2000 to 3500 flight hours in 2021. The Tsar won’t be able to change the laws of physics by decree. Most of these planes are scrap metal.
A terrorist is someone who has a bomb but doesn’t have an air force. William Blum
Modern Russian aircraft are designed for a 3,500 and 4,500 flight hour service life, and some for as many as 6,000.
The Soviet-era platforms were designed for 2,000 to 3,500 hours. Some are upgraded. Most are at the end of their service lives, with only 500 to 1,000 hours remaining.
US made fighter jets were designed for 6000 hours. Modern ones for 8000 to 10,000 hours. The latest F-15’s are even good for 20,000 hours.
Perun had assessed that the VKS had a 63 percent combat readiness ratio in 2016
In 2013, it was at 50 percent. The VKS suffers from a lack of coordination, lack of sufficient training, and exercises.
A modern, autonomous, and thoroughly trained Air Force in being at all times will not alone be sufficient, but without it there can be no national security. Henry H. Arnold
Russia lost 67 pilots by September 2022
The Russians have lost a confirmed 186 piloted aircraft and helicopters by the August of 2023. The loss of this spy plane will ensure that the number of dead pilots will continue to climb.
The military historian Chris O explained how Russia’s military corruption has left its air defenses full of holes. Russia’s attrition rates could lead to a shortage in deployable modern airframes and (trained) pilots.
These gaps in the radar coverage due to the prior A-50 shot down are likely the reason for the increased attrition rates of the VKS. The loss of another A-50 will be rendering Russian aircraft even more vulnerable.
This A-50 was likely sent there to compensate for these gaps
Ukraine waited patiently and got rewarded. Russia’s radar gaps are going to open even more opportunity for Ukraine’s air force. Russia originally allocated three A 50 to cover Ukraine. This was done to ensure that they have enough left to cover their own territory. Now two of them are gone.
One AWACS is left for Ukraine, and that means 12 hours a day of coverage, maximum
Losing one more A 50 would affect Russian national airspace security. Maybe they could afford to lose one more. Nine were in service with the Russian forces in total. Now we are down to at least seven. Partisans blew up another A 50 a year ago in Belarus. Therefore, we might be down to six.
Summary and conclusion
Ukraine and Russia are locked in a brutal attritional warfare. The movements on the front will remain liminal in the coming months. Modern war is won by superior machines, not by soldiers. Ukraine has recently received another 1000 drones to bolster their forces.
Industrial warfare is won by superior logistics, industrial production and superior command and control
The Russians have deep stockpiles. Without air superiority the ground force becomes easy prey.
Not to have an adequate air force in the present state of the world is to compromise the foundations of national freedom and independence. Winston Churchill
Russia has huge borders and they need those aircraft to monitor that airspace, not just in Ukraine
The Russians face a dilemma. Will they compromise their own security and task one of the remaining aircraft to Ukraine? I think they will. For Putin, Ukraine is not an external affair. For him, Ukraine is an internal security matter.
The attrition rate of Russia’s forces are out of control
Russia lost 10 percent of the tanks deployed in Avdiivka. Russia suffered 655 vehicle losses to Ukraine’s 50. That is a loss ration of 1:12. Russia lost at least 2800 tanks. Those are only the confirmed losses.
Avdiivka has a fraction of the population of the places Russia wants to occupy
Taking this fortified town was a Pyrrhic victory for Russia. It inflicted a devastating toll on the victor. The Russians may have won the battle, but these losses will contribute to losing the war. Russia’s offensive capacity in the air and on the ground is culminating.
“War is simply the continuation of political intercourse with the addition of other means.” Clausewitz
Henry Boyd, the institute’s senior fellow for military capability estimated that Russia put 1,000 to 1,500 more tanks into service in the past year. Only 200 of them were newly built.
Russia pulls old tanks out of storage at a rate of up to 90 per month
Time is not working for, but against Russia. These remaining stockpiles will melt away. Russia can assemble tanks. Russia lacks the industrial scale and inputs to replace their enormous losses without pulling ever older tanks out of storage.
In 2022, I promised Russia a poverty driven and crushing defeat by the end of next summer. Ukraine’s allies underperformed. It is not too late.
Ukraine’s victory ensures Europe’s security and it will prevent a larger war. The Russians must be taught the same lesson as the Nazis. One they will never forget.
Those who bring the sword, will die by the sword. One cannot walk the same river twice. An empire that crumbled from within is dead, forever. Snowsdradamus
Russia had the edge in a war of stockpiles. These stocks are running dry. In the next 12 months, the war is transitioning into a war of industries
Despite Russia’s delusional phantasies. Even without US support, Russia cannot hope to win a war of industries. The clock is ticking. Russia has awakened a sleeping giant, and has filled it with terrible resolve.
Russia may fear the USA. Russia will learn to fear a united Europe more
Europe is no one’s vassal. The Russians will be surprised of Europe’s creativity in tearing down the pillars of their empire. Russia’s barbaric venture and its threats make peace with this fascist regime impossible. The time for appeasement is over. Russia’s colonial war of conquest must end in failure.
“The sinews of war, are infinite money.” Marcus Tullius Cicero
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“Russiae Imperium delendum est”
Sources:
https://meta-defense.fr/en/2024/02/04/russian_air_forces_2023_fighters/
https://www.wdmma.org/russian-air-force.php
https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/russias_tank_stocks_are_running_out_more_and_more_outdated_equipment_is_being_used_by_invaders_against_ukraine-9619.html
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russian-a50-plane-aircraft-downed-b2501858.html
