Summary

Ukraine has increased its military capabilities by acquiring tanks and missiles from Russian losses, with the irony of using captured and repaired Russian equipment against them.

Abstract

The article discusses the unexpected growth of Ukraine's military strength amidst the ongoing conflict with Russia. Despite the war's toll, Ukraine has managed to expand its operational battle tank fleet, surpassing its pre-war numbers by utilizing abandoned and captured Russian tanks, some of which are identical to those used by the Ukrainian army. The country has also been cannibalizing damaged Russian tanks for spare parts. Detailed records of equipment losses on both sides are maintained by the open-source intelligence group Oryxspioenkop.com, which has documented a significant number of destroyed, abandoned, captured, and damaged tanks and missiles as of March 26, 2022. The data suggests a considerable discrepancy between the losses reported by Oryx and those claimed by the Ukrainian government, particularly in aircraft counts. Oryx's methodology and credibility are discussed, with acknowledgment of their detailed sourcing and recognition by reputable publications, despite the potential for cyber manipulation. The article also touches on the irony of Ukraine using Russian-designed missiles, such as the Strela missiles provided by Germany, against Russian forces.

Opinions

The author notes the irony of Ukraine's military growth, particularly in the use of captured and repaired Russian equipment.
There is skepticism about the accuracy of the data provided by Oryxspioenkop.com, despite their detailed sourcing and verification protocols.
The author suggests that the crowd-sourced data collection by Oryx is a significant effort that excels in the current information environment.
The article implies a level of respect for Oryx's data, as it is cited by established media outlets like Forbes.
The author highlights the supreme irony of Russian-designed missiles being used against Russian targets, emphasizing the complexity of the conflict.
The author's personal stance on the war's ironies is evident, particularly in the use of Russian equipment against its original owners.
There is an underlying appreciation for the resilience and adaptability of the Ukrainian military in the face of adversity.

Ukraine War

Ukraine is Re-Arming

Thanks for the tanks, Putin. And the missiles too…

There are numerous reports that Ukraine’s fleet of operational battle tanks is now larger than when the Russians started the war in February. The irony of it is that the tanks that have been abandoned by, or captured from, the Russian troops are the same as used by the Ukraine army.

But what about the damaged Russian tanks? Ukraine is cannibalising them for spare parts.

Open source intelligence outfit oryxspioenkop.com has been maintaining a database of equipment losses on both sides since 24 February 2022.

Here’s the record of battle tank losses and missiles as of Monday 26 March 2022 (does not include other armoured fighting and infantry vehicles):

Tanks

Ukrainian Tanks (79, of which destroyed: 26, abandoned: 9, captured: 42)

Russian Tanks (310, of which destroyed: 131, damaged: 6, abandoned: 42, captured: 131)

And missiles:

Russian missiles:

Anti-Tank Guided Missiles (63, of which abandoned: 24, captured: 39)

Man-Portable Air Defence Systems (24, of which captured: 24)

Multiple Rocket Launchers (34, of which destroyed: 15, abandoned: 5, captured: 15)

Surface-To-Air Missile Systems (40, of which destroyed: 20, damaged: 1, abandoned: 7, captured: 12)

Ukrainian Missiles:

Anti-tank Guided Missiles (51, of which captured: 51)

Man-Portable Air Defence Systems (16, of which captured: 16)

Multiple Rocket Launchers (6, of which destroyed: 1, captured: 5)

Surface-To-Air Missile Systems (21, of which destroyed: 15, abandoned: 2, captured: 4)

There is a huge list of other captured, damaged and destroyed materiel.

All data reproduced from open source providers oryxspioenkop.com

Can the data be believed?

Taking aircraft as an example, the numbers reported are markedly lower than those claimed by the Ukraine government 68 versus 121 (source: Telegram) as of writing (excludes helicopters and UAVs). This is a surprisingly large difference.

Oryxspioenkop.com describes their data gathering and verification protocols in detail, with each source identified as far as the fog of war allows.

It’s obviously a huge exercise gathering and collating the data, the sort of thing that crowd-based activity excels at.

Who are oryxsopioenkop.com?

They call themselves Oryx on their high-quality website and appear to be crowd-funded at least in part via Patreon. The latest content is heavily Ukraine-biased.

ahrefs.com gives them a good domain authority of 56. Their blog archive has a few hundred conflict posts going back to 2014. Of course all these things can be ‘arranged’ by cyber specialists. Even I guess, archive.org.

However, Oryx’s data seems to be respected by some high profile and solid publications such as Forbes.

So, for me, the jury’s still out on this.

Russian built T72 Tank, part of Ukraine’s growing armed forces. Image credit: Wikipedia

And there’s more irony in this war too. So much is coming back to bite Putin:

Germany Sends Strela Missiles to Ukraine

And Ukraine fires them at Russians — the supreme irony of Russian designed missiles being used against Russian targets…

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