Russian-Ukraine War

Ukraine and Cluster Munitions: The Puzzle

Why is Ukraine not producing cluster munitions of its own?

Ukraine has a tremendously inventive and capable technology sector, a sector capable of making significant improvements to the ex-Soviet military equipment they inherited; even to the extent of building the R-360 Neptune anti-ship cruise missiles which sunk the Moskva, flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet.

There has been a lot of negative reaction from hand-wringing NGOs (e.g. Human Rights Watch and the United Nations) about the United States’s decision to supply cluster to Ukraine. And not only NGOs. Austria too. Like Switzerland, Austria claims to be neutral and is not a member of NATO. Yet Austria is ringed and effectively protected by NATO countries.

What are they?

It may seem obvious, but there are many variations:

A cluster munition is a form of air-dropped or ground-launched explosive weapon that releases or ejects smaller submunitions. Commonly, this is a cluster bomb that ejects explosive bomblets that are designed to kill personnel and destroy vehicles. Other cluster munitions are designed to destroy runways or electric power transmission lines, disperse chemical or biological weapons, or to scatter land mines. Some submunition-based weapons can disperse non-munitions, such as leaflets. (Wikipedia)

‘Cluster bombs’ are available as air-launched gravity (and possibly guided) bombs and as artillery shells. They may also be deployed in MLRS (rocket launch) systems. As part of the latest aid package, the US is supplying them to Ukraine in 155mm format Dual-Purpose Improved Conventional Munition (DPICM), which can be fired from the M777 howitzer and presumably other 155 mm calibre NATO weapons which have been supplied to Ukraine.

Some DPICM bomblets are shaped charges for top-down armour attack; others are designed for anti-personnel action.

Legality

This is where it gets complicated. The Convention on Cluster Munitions dates back to 2008.

The treaty allows certain types of weapons with submunitions that do not have the indiscriminate area effects or pose the same unexploded ordnance risks as cluster munitions. Permitted weapons must contain fewer than ten submunitions, and each must weigh more than 4 kilograms (8.8 lb), and each submunition must have the capability to detect and engage a single target object and contain electronic self-destruct and self-deactivation mechanisms. Weapons containing submunitions which all individually weigh at least 20 kg (44 lb) are also excluded. (Wikipedia)

In summary: not too many bomblets and not too small is OK.

The countries that have not signed the CCM treaty include: China, Russia, United States, India, Israel, Pakistan, Brazil, North Korea, South Korea, Turkey, Egypt and Ukraine.

Note: Quite legal within those definitions are anti-runway cluster weapons such as the French ‘Apache’ cruise missile from which the Storm Shadow and Scalp were developed (they have single/double warheads for deep penetration).

Use on Ukrainian sovereign territory

Ukraine wants to use the US cluster munitions in a controlled way on its own territory against Russian military defence formations. On the other hand, Russia uses cluster munitions on the civilian population Ukraine, a sovereign state which it is illegally attempting to invade.

Let’s be clear that these are not massive air dropped bombs or missiles. These are artillery shells with a relatively local impact. Compare that with the cluster bomb missiles that Russia launched against Ukrainian civilian areas. (Analysis here on France24 in English).

However it’s worth noting that according to CNN, Ukraine has already used cluster munitions supplied by Turkey.

Controlled use

In its agreement with the United States, Ukraine has formally undertaken to use these DPICM shells only on military targets within its own borders and not close to civilian settlements. I haven’t seen the detail, so I don’t know quite what ‘close to’ means.

Nevertheless, I expect the DPICM to be used against entrenched Russian positions and armour, and to assist in clearing routes through dense minefields (albeit with relatively less efficiency than the M58-MICLIC).

This will be of considerable assistance as Ukraine’s counter-offensive gathers pace, both to help breach the deep Russian defence lines and to further degrade the morale of the Russian forces.

Also, of course, the delivery commitment is a sign to the Russian Stavka of ongoing and escalating commitment. That is important, particularly with the evolving political instability in Russia.

What is being supplied to Ukraine?

The United States has a number of cluster artillery projectiles available:

Denys Davydov claims that the M864 DPICM will be supplied to Ukraine.

My puzzle

I wonder why Ukraine cannot manufacture cluster munitions itself. To me, cluster munitions are not rocket science. The technology seems to be no further advanced than that available in WWI, except perhaps for the fusing mechanism and improved explosive compounds.

Cluster munitions construction and operation

Each M864 shell contains 48 x M42 grenades and 24 x M46 grenades, 72 grenades in total.

The M42 is a dual purpose high explosive grenade containing a shaped main charge, and incorporating an impact inertia fuse. The grenade is stabilised and the fuse is armed in flight by a ribbon stabiliser.

In contrast the M46 has a smooth body not optimized for fragmentation, but designed with a charge shaped to penetrate up to 2.75" (68mm) of armour.

So, from what I see there is no high technology here. The shells are not steerable although I guess it’s probable that the canister fusing mechanism could be GPS triggered for high precision targeting; however there is no sign of that in the specs I have seen. The graphic shows a timed fuse but that may not be the M864 shell that is depicted.

Video of operation

A short video of cluster artillery shells being used on a test range:

Conclusion

There is nothing in these munitions that is beyond the capability of Ukraine to manufacture themselves.

There are no exotic material and the explosive compounds are not novel. The only constraint might be industrial capacity for machining and the time required to set up production facilities. But Ukraine has been building their armaments manufacturing capacity since 2014 and I am sure is well capable of this. But why they haven’t yet produced them I have no idea.

So, the inescapable conclusion for me is that this agreed procurement of cluster munitions is driven by the need to get the US to demonstrate that it is still on-side.

Undoubtedly these munitions will help accelerate the Ukrainian counter-offensive and kick Russia off its territory, but given the time it has taken to get this far with low-tech cluster munitions then that does not make me optimistic about the early supply of ATACMS and F-16s to Ukraine.

However, Biden’s hand may be forced by upcoming elections and the political unity that now seems to exist in the Senate and Congress in this regard. Hopefully he will be further encouraged by Russian retreats.

More context

Proof of Russian cluster bomblet missiles:

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