Ukraine War

Ukraine: A Three-Pronged December Russian Offensive?

There are three signs that Russia is preparing to make a dramatic move to end the war before the year is out

Three stories in the last few days have made me wonder whether Putin is planning to end the war with a ‘win’ before the year is out: year end 2022 or 12 months of war on 24th February 2023.

Take your pick, but I think 12 months of war without a clear win would definitely signal the end of Putin.

Surely he will want to avoid getting bogged down in a winter war — his forces are poorly equipped even for a summer war?

So, here are the stories. I should point out that several of them are sourced from Ukraine War Intel News Telegram Channel. I looked for corroboration where possible.

1. Build up of Russian forces in Belarus

This has been going on for a couple of months now, through October and November 2022.

In the last few weeks there have been increasing reports about the Russian force build-up in Belarus, with videos of tanks being transported from Russia into the border area, increased military aircraft movements and troop transports.

Norwegian fact-checking site Faktisk published satellite images from Machulishchy airfield in Belarus made by Planet Labs company on 18 October and 31 October at 10:41 (Kyiv time).

The images appear to show that the airfield still hosts three MiG-31K interceptor jets that are capable of carrying hypersonic X-47M2 Kinzhal missiles.

Belarusian monitoring group Belarusian Hajun reported on November 28 that Russia has moved a large convoy of military equipment into Belarus, including at least 15 Tor-M2 surface-to-air missile systems and 10 engineering vehicles.

According to the report, “this is not the last military convoy with a cargo of this type.”

A few days before, Ukrainian military’s National Resistance Center reported that up to 12,000 mobilized Russian recruits are stationed in Belarus, in tents. Putin will have to move them soon before they freeze to death.

However, Belarus has been transferring its tanks to Russian forces in the Lukhansk region of occupied Ukraine, so it is possible that the force build up in Belarus is just a bluff. It’s easy enough to sacrifice 12,000 conscripts.

2. Russian strategic bomber activation

I could find no corroboration of this story on Reuters, but if it is true and has really come through intel sources to Ukraine then perhaps that is not surprising.

Russia Loads 300 cruise missiles on 18 bombers for the largest mass missile attack to date.

The Ukrainian military leadership is in a state of panic as Western intelligence agencies have informed Kiev that Russia has amassed 18 strategic bombers with a huge volume of fire. — Ukraine War Intel News Telegram Channel

It has been reported that Western satellites have detected the gathering of 14 Tu-95 (‘Bear’) and 4 Tu-160 strategic bombers at the Engels Air Base.

Engels Air Force Base is a strategic bomber base in Russia located about 14 east of Saratov, across the Volga River, and is Russia’s sole operating location for the Tupolev Tu-160 strategic swing wing bomber. Saratov is about 300 miles from the internationally-recognised Ukraine border with Russia.

It is speculated that the missiles will be targeted to destroy the remaining vestiges of critical Ukrainian infrastructure especially the power grid.

3. Russian Black Sea Fleet Activity

Russian ships in the Black Sea are gathering intelligence for a potential strike — the head of the press center of OK “South” Nataliya Humenyuk.

Nataliya Gumenyuk noted that the Russians missile carriers are already equipped and prepared, and the fact that they occasionally enter the base points may indicate a response to the weather, including storms.

This is an interesting claim because since the October 29th combined sea-borne and aerial drone attack on the ships in Sevastopol naval port, Russia has moved its improved Kilo class hunter-killer submarines to Novorossysk, much further away from the action and 180 miles from Sevastopol.

Both of their Admiral Grigorovich-class frigates, the largest and most capable ships after the sinking of Slava-class cruiser RTS Moskva, have mostly been in port. One of these, Black Sea flagship Admiral Makarov, is believed to have sustained some damage during the October attack. — USNI.org

So, it may well be that these ships are being readied for further action.

Constraint: Russian missile stocks

I picked this story up from Newsweek. It’s based on a Tweet by Oleksii Reznikov, a senior Ukrainian defence official.

According to the illustration of Russia’s ground-launched, sea-launched, and air-launched missiles, as of November 18, the country had 8,476 missiles left out of the 11,227 missiles it had when it first invaded Ukraine on February 24.

The report said Russia has used an estimated 80 percent of its modern missiles. A key point in the story is that Ukraine estimates is that of Russia’s current stock of 8,476 there are 664 missiles that were produced throughout the course of the war, according to the illustration, which is based on Ukraine’s assessments.

If that’s anywhere near accurate then it’s clear that Russia has no way of producing missiles at a rate which matches its usage. And components are becoming very difficult to source and Putin has turned to Iran.

So, with Russian precision missile stocks seriously depleted, does Putin let the rest bleed away slowly or launch a massive blitz now, before winter sets in?

How would it start?

A false provocation on the Belarus border is a distinct possibility. We have seen Belarussian commanders saying this week that they would ‘respond appropriately’ to any provocation.

That would be accompanied by other actions elsewhere, possibly even outside the immediate war theatre, to sow confusion in Ukraine and NATO countries alike. Letter bomb attacks on NATO embassies have started — are they a sign of something starting?

So, one scenario would be a massive cruise missile bombardment from air and sea to put Ukraine’s power grid completely out of action, with a fresh invasion force heading down from Belarus to Kyiv, this time involving Belarus’s own forces as well.

Shit or bust — Lukashenko cannot avoid this one.

And Putin’s days are surely numbered.

If only.

But what will he do next? Your guess is as good as mine.

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