Estimate of the Situation

UFOs Are Going Through a Phase

On the eve of the memorable (we hope) UAP Report to Congress, a system has revealed itself so we can figure out where we are in the game, and how long it may take for a robust Disclosure.

The UAP Report to Congress is due to drop any minute now. There have been leaks to the New York Times, rampant speculation (most of it trying to tamp down expectations), and classified briefings prepping Senators for what’s to come.

We won’t know what’s in the report until we see the report. It will likely be less than we hope for, more than nothing, and most readers will be at least vaguely unsatisfied.

Over at Trail of the Saucers on Twitter, we asked people what expectation they had and the results have been predictable.

As it turns out, the winner by a mile is “Limited Truth.” People seems to have their hopes up for something and their expectations in check.

It seems clear at this point that there are basically going to be Four Phases (in America) that have to be gone through until we get to the point of an actual Disclosure that UFOs are exotic technology that are from somewhere that isn’t here.

Phase One: They’re real.

Phase Two: We don’t make them.

Phase Three: China and Russia don’t make them either.

Phase Four: Do the Math.

Phase One: They’re real.

It’s taken us 74 years (Happy Birthday, Kenneth Arnold sighting!) to arrive here. While the Twining Memo may have confirmed this at the end of 1947’s Summer of the Saucers, it was not public. Recently, however, the Department of Defense and the U.S. Navy, not to mention members of the U.S. Intelligence Community, and Presidents Clinton and Obama, have all more or less made this statement. Something is out there. Doesn’t mean E.T. we are reminded, but the things our pilots and radar keep seeing and picking up, are something authentic.

Phase Two: We don’t make them.

This is the most recent phase, and the one that the UAP Report is apt to put down in writing. It was part of that New York Times leak and more and more of our officials seem to be saying it, ranging from Senator Marco Rubio to former DNI John Ratcliffe. They’re real, but they’re not ours.

Phase Three: China and Russia don’t make them either.

We’re not here yet by any stretch. In fact, it seems more than likely that this is where the UAP Report leaves us. Clearly, this is what those insiders were running past the New York Times and even 60 Minutes. It’s also the dodge that the Rubios and others use to make sure they don’t sound crazy, talking about aliens, but instead look like public servants who are interested in national security and are hoping against hope that we have not been technologically leapfrogged by our adversaries.

Phase Four: Do the math.

Yep, this is the Holy Grail and we can be quite sure that the UAP Report — short of an absolute stunning reversal — will not go there. At some point, however, whether it takes congressional hearings or fact finding commissions or sustained investigative reporting, at some point China and Russia are going to be ruled in or ruled out. So far, the people in the know who speak out, seem to be ruling out our adversaries. Think about it. UFOs going back to 1947 have been showing off the same capabilities that the ones we are seeing now. China or Russia did not put those UFOs from the 1940s, 1950s, 1960s, 1970s in the air. If they’re real, if we don’t make them, if other nations don’t make them, then somebody else does. Might not be E.T., might be something stranger — ultra-terrestrials, time travelers, a simulation of reality, whatever.

We are currently at Phase One. The UAP Report is probably going to escalate us to Phase Two. The next months or years will be devoted to sorting out Phase Three. Sometime in the 2020s we are going to get to Phase Four.

People who know about such things probably believe that this slow steady roll-out is the best way to avoid War of the Worlds style panic. We’ll be like that frog in the jar as the temperature is slowly raised who never jumps out. One day we’ll all be able to look around and wonder what took us so long.

Trail of the Saucers focuses on the news, culture, and analysis of UFO/UAP reality. Here are a few of our other articles: