avatarBill Myers

Summary

The article discusses the delicate balance and potential consequences of timing the restart of social interaction and the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Abstract

The article titled "Two Conflicting Errors: Restarting Too Soon vs. Waiting too Long" on the undefined website presents a critical analysis of the decisions faced by leaders during the COVID-19 crisis. It highlights the fine line between reopening economies prematurely, which could lead to a disastrous relapse and greater economic devastation, and waiting too long, which could result in increased frustration, job losses, and potential civil unrest. The author emphasizes that while patience is crucial, prolonged inaction could have severe social and economic repercussions. The article suggests that a phased approach with careful monitoring is the most prudent strategy to avoid the pitfalls of both extremes. It also points out that while ignorance among the public can be addressed, stupidity cannot, and leaders must make tough decisions based on expert advice, despite the likelihood of criticism regardless of the path chosen.

Opinions

  • The author believes that the decision to restart the economy is as significant, if not more so, than declaring war.
  • Protesters demanding a faster reopening are seen as frustrated, ignorant, or stupid, with the latter being an unchangeable trait.
  • Waiting too long to reopen could lead to riots, but the author suggests this is still months away.
  • Restarting too soon could lead to a relapse, deplete supply chains, overwhelm hospitals, and result in a higher death rate.
  • The author advocates for following advisors' recommendations and making the best guess possible, prioritizing lives over temporary discomfort.
  • There is a concern that a premature reopening could lead to a longer, more damaging shutdown in the future.
  • The article references NPR statistical estimates and provides a link to federal coronavirus projections for further reading.
  • The author expresses a preference for enduring current discomfort to avoid the risks associated with a premature reopening.

COVID-19

Two Conflicting Errors: Restarting Too Soon vs. Waiting too Long

One error frustrates people and hurts the economy. The other kills people and devastates the economy.

ScalesOfJustice.svg-Wikipedia (Microsoft clipart)

One thing about being a leader, whether President, Governor or any small group, there are always consequences if you make the wrong decision.

Declaring War may be the only greater decision - and maybe not even that

Recommendations have been made about the procedure and timing for restarting social interaction and the economy.

Already the protestors are out. Those are complaining that the government is not moving fast enough. Those that say that their “Rights” are infringed. Those that are frustrated. Those that are ignorant don’t understand or have not thought of the consequences of making a wrong decision. Finally, the stupid that don’t want to think about the implications or don’t care.

Ignorance can be fixed. Stupidity can’t.

Here are the consequences of making the wrong decision.

Waiting too Long

Frustration levels are building. Right now, people are supporting each other. Food and basic needs are still being met, although not at the prior convenience or saturation level. The economy is still in decent shape.

If our leaders wait too long, real shortages will occur, and more people will lose their jobs. Frustration levels could spike to a level causing riots. In my opinion, that is probably months and not weeks away.

The choice isn’t easy. The phased approach, with a 2-week delay to make sure there aren’t many carriers in the population, is probably the best approach.

Restarting Too Soon

This should scare people, even if everyone keeps some social distancing by not collecting in shoulder-to-shoulder crowds. Restaurants and bars resume service. Kids go back to school. Movies and concerts restart.

Suppose there’s a relapse! It won’t make much difference six months or a year from now, but what happens if it is in three weeks? It would be

Far worse than now than when the shutdown restarts!

The supply chains have been depleted. It seems like we have shortages now, but there were supplies in the warehouses, in the backrooms of stores, on the trucks and rail cars, and the factories were running for a while.

All of those are empty and the infrastructure will probably have not been back to full capacity long enough to replenish everything. We might even have to worry about the food supply. The economy would be devastated.

Also, we don’t have a good treatment for the virus. The relapse could generate far more patients this time and the hospitals could be overwhelmed. Sick people may have to work to keep the country from collapsing. The death rate could soar.

The next shutdown could last a lot longer and hurt the economy far worse than now.

Finally

This type of decision occurs much more often than you think, just not at this level of severity.

Our leaders must follow their advisors’ recommendations and make the best guess possible. No matter what they do, some will complain that it was the wrong decision.

I pray that our leaders have made the right choice.

I’m not willing to bet people’s lives and a possible relapse for a few more days of discomfort. Are you?

Here are some NPR statistical estimates as of April 21, 202010:35 AM ET based on government projections.

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