Summary

The article emphasizes the importance of idea selection and execution over mere idea generation, using the Segway as a case study for a brilliant concept that failed due to poor practicality and feedback mechanisms.

Abstract

The Segway, once hailed as a revolutionary invention by tech giants like Steve Jobs and Jeff Bezos, fell short of its projected success, selling only a fraction of the expected units. This failure underscores the misconception that entrepreneurial success hinges on innovative ideas alone. In reality, as highlighted by Adam Grant in his book "Originals," the true measure of an entrepreneur lies in the ability to select the right ideas and execute them effectively. The Segway's downfall was attributed to its impracticality for the average consumer, high cost, and the lack of a behavior change conducive to its adoption. The article suggests that feedback from the right people is crucial, as even successful entrepreneurs can misjudge a product's potential. It also criticizes the overreliance on intuition, especially when it's not backed by relevant experience. The piece concludes with advice from Marc Randolph, co-founder of Netflix, who emphasizes the importance of quickly and inexpensively testing ideas rather than focusing solely on their novelty.

Opinions

The Segway's failure was due to a lack of practicality and a mismatch with consumer needs, despite its technological innovation.
Feedback quality is paramount; it should come from experienced individuals in the relevant field rather than solely from successful entrepreneurs or the general public.
Intuition based on past success can be misleading, leading to overconfidence and poor decision-making when venturing into new territories.
The tendency to keep ideas secret to prevent theft can backfire by limiting valuable feedback during the development phase.
Entrepreneurs should prioritize building and testing prototypes quickly and cheaply to validate their ideas, rather than getting bogged down in the ideation phase.
Success in entrepreneurship is not about the brilliance of the idea but about the ability to test, select, and execute ideas effectively.

Trying to Think of the Next Big Thing? Do This Instead.

The measure of a good entrepreneur doesn’t come down to a good idea.

At the turn of the century an invention took Silicon Valley by storm. Steve Jobs called it the most amazing piece of technology since the person computer. Jeff Bezos took one look at the product and immediately got involved, telling the inventor, ‘You have a product so revolutionary, you’ll have no problem selling it.’ The inventor himself was describes as a modern Thomas Edison. [He] projected that wihtn a year, sales of his newest product would reach 10,000 units a week. But six years later, they had sold only about 30,000 units in total. That product was the Segway, the self-balancing personal transporter. Time called it one of the ten biggest technology flops of the decade. — Adam Grant in Originals: How Non-Conformists Move the World

How in the world could so many titans of industry be so wrong about the Segway? The answer is layered; there’s a handful of reasons as to why it was such a cataclysmic failure. But the overarching idea is this: The world doesn’t really need more idea generation. What it does need more of are the two steps that follow.

First off, if you have any sort of entrepreneurial aspirations and you haven’t read Grant’s bestseller, in the words of Kristen Wiig’s character from Bridesmaids “Get your shit together Carol!” Contrary to popular belief, the world doesn’t suffer from a lack of original ideas. What it IS starved of is proper idea selection and idea execution of said ideas. The Segway is the perfect example.

Although the Segway was a brilliant piece of technology and the application of it was really cool and novel, practicality was absent. It was not a product that would be best suited for ordinary consumers, as was intended. It was expensive, wasn’t even approved for sidewalks at the time, and would’ve required a huge behavior change for people to adopt it. That begs the question…how could freakin’ Jobs and Bezos, two entrepreneurs whose names are almost synonymous with money, have been so off?

As it turns out, feedback isn’t feedback isn’t feedback. It matters who you get it from. Intuition is only reliable when born of experience. This was not the case for Jobs and Bezos. And to make matters worse, the more success someone has experienced in the past, the worse they perform when undertaking something new. They get a little cocky. As such, Daniel Kamen — the consummate inventor behind it all — didn’t ask the right people what they thought.

Now you’re probably thinking well why didn’t he just ask regular people what they wanted? Y’know. People who weren’t massively successful billionaires? I see where you’re coming from, but I’m afraid this would’ve led you astray as well. In the words of Henry Ford “If I had asked my customers what they wanted, they would have said a faster horse.” Asking people what they want isn’t good enough. They don’t know what would work any more than you do.

Kamen closed the door to almost any and all feedback. He was too afraid that someone would steal his idea, so he kept it as secret as possible. A lot of his own employees weren’t even allowed access to the area where the Segway was being developed. That was reserved for distinguished investors who had a chance to try it out. And by the time the Segway became available for public purchase, it had already undergone a handful of iterations.

As far as inventions go, Kamen’s THE guy. That’s his specialty. But his execution was all off. Ideation is important, but (1) most ideas are gonna be trash, and (2) once you’ve actually selected a good idea, the next step is the hardest part: Execution.

I was listening to a podcast the other day between Tim Ferriss and Marc Randolph (co-founder of Netflix, no big deal) and Randolph said something that made me pause the podcast and write it in my notes. Mind you, I was driving, but it was too good not to write down.

The measure of a good entrepreneur isn’t how good your idea is. It’s how quick and cheaply you can test your ideas.

If only Kamen was privy to such insight. Let that sink in for a moment. Marcy Marc might as well have slapped me in the damn face with a handful of reality. That’s how hard that hit me. I’ve been coming up with ideas for years. I can’t tell you how many times I prep for bed, turn the lights off, get under the covers and then…

F*CK.

I get hit with an idea, tear the covers off, turn the lights back on and write it down. Alright cool, bedtime for real now.

*Two minutes later*

F*CK! ANOTHER.

After reading this book and listening to that podcast, I’ve come to realize those ideas might as well not exist if I don’t find a way to come up with a cheap prototype and test it out. Who knows if they’re good ideas and even if they are, that’s only half the battle.

Takeaways for the idea-crazed entrepreneur

Execution is everything. Good ideas only get you so far. If poorly executed, you’re sh*t out of luck. So here is the two-step combo for when you’ve got a cool idea and you don’t want it to be reduced to something that overweight mall cops ride around on.

Build something quickly and cheaply and get feedback from the right people. Not super successful people, but also not just regular Joe Shmos. Find people who are fellow creators. Someone in the field. Your colleagues. These people will act as your vetting process.
Once it’s passed the selection phase and your colleagues think you’re onto something then it's time to execute. Make it available for purchase. See what people like and what they dislike. Go from there and course-correct as needed.