Trump Is No Friend to Post-Brexit Britain

Despite Trump’s enthusiasm for Brexit, agreeing a UK-US trade deal will be tricky

In the aftermath of Britain’s 2016 vote to leave the European Union, much has been made about the prospect of a trade deal with the United States. Brexiteers, keen to project the idea of a ‘global Britain’ that is once again open for business, have often pointed to the potential of trade deals with nations like the US as the major upside of Brexit — with the UK supposedly now free to conduct business on more favorable terms with its allies outside of Europe.

Much of the excitement around a UK-US trade deal has come from President Trump himself, who has long been a supporter of the UK’s decision to exit the EU. Donald Trump has previously asserted that “I think Brexit is going to end up being a great thing”, and that the UK was “so smart in getting out” of the EU — claiming that his administration is “gonna work very hard to get it done quickly and done properly”.

If President Trump has been a cheerleader for Brexit on the US side of the Atlantic, much of his enthusiasm over a deal has been shared by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. In February, he proclaimed in a speech only days after the UK had left the EU that “We will get going with our friends in America, and I share the optimism of Donald Trump and I say to all the naive and juvenile anti-Americans in this country if there are any — there seem to be some — I say grow up, and get a grip.”

On the face of it, it would appear as if leaders in both Washington and London are keen to agree on a quick, mutually beneficial trade deal — with both sides seeing eye to eye on the issue of trade. However, under the surface of Trump and Johnson’s shared unity over Brexit, a myriad of problems exist that may well leave a potential UK-US deal dead on arrival.

America First?

When Donald Trump gave his inaugural address back in January 2017, he laid out his ‘America First’ philosophy to the American public — and in the three years since, President Trump has consistently taken a protectionist view on both trade and foreign policy. The Trump administration has regularly taken aim at American allies, accusing European countries of shrinking their duties with regards to defense spending or trade practices. From a British perspective, this will have a huge impact on any trade agreement going forward.

The hope within Britain of a sweetheart deal, in which a Trump White House offers favorable terms to the UK due to his support for Brexit, seems unlikely given Trump’s hard-line stance towards even traditional US allies like Germany. The UK and Trump have already clashed on a number of issues during his presidency — ranging from UK tax policy towards US tech companies to the UK’s use of Huawei in its 5G network. As Trump himself said whilst speaking from the steps of the Capitol Building back in 2017, “it is the right of all nations to put their own interests first” — and Brexit seems unlikely to change this stance.

Aside from Trump’s own willingness to conclude a trade deal with the UK, the quality of any potential UK-US agreement must also be put into question. Domestically, Donald Trump’s main priority has been to cut back on what he views as ‘job killing’ regulations — particularly with regards to the environment and banking. To date, Trump has repealed over 60 environmental regulations — including weakening carbon dioxide limits from both power plants and cars — alongside limiting wildlife protection areas in the name of oil and gas exploration. For the banking sector, Trump has engaged in what has been described as a “deregulation spree”, having consistently opted to remove regulatory requirements on banks that were implemented in the wake of the 2007–2008 Financial Crisis.

Why is Trump’s assault on regulations relevant for Britain in the wake of Brexit? It has long been speculated that any UK-US trade deal may see Britain also forced to alter its own regulatory requirements, opening up its pharmaceutical and agricultural industries to US companies. As reported by Politico, “a bigger row is brewing on U.S. imports to the U.K., with Washington pushing to reduce restrictions on chemically-rinsed chicken, genetically modified crops and hormone-treated beef” — which would ultimately see the UK market flooded by cheaper US imports with lower regulatory requirements.

Finally, even when faced with the potential of falling regulations and a Trump administration keen to impose its ‘America First’ policy, would a trade deal even provide much to Post-Brexit Britain in the way of economic gains? The two countries are already highly economically intertwined — with the UK currently the largest investor in the US economy, and the US acting as the UK’s largest export market. With the British government’s own report putting the value of a trade deal at only 0.16% of UK GDP, the scope and benefits of a potential agreement appear to fall short of the high expectations set by Brexiteers.

British Weakness After Brexit

Alongside the apparent coolness from the US side of the negotiating table, any UK-US trade agreement would also see the UK negotiating from a position of weakness right off the mark. A Britain outside the EU would be a far less important strategic partner to the US — with the UK no longer able to influence European policy from the inside. Crucially, post-Brexit Britain would lose its voting rights within the EU and thus have little say over issues such as trade, regulations and foreign policy.

Furthermore, Britain would also see its economic might diminished in the wake of Brexit — and as a result, have less leverage on the global stage. Even under the most optimistic assessments, the UK’s decision to leave the EU will cost jobs and slow economic growth on a short term basis, leaving less room for Britain to project its power overseas. A Britain plagued by sluggish growth and economic uncertainty will certainly be a less desirable ally to the US on the global stage.

As a result of its lessening geopolitical influence, the UK would no longer be at the “front of the queue” — as promised by Donald Trump — for any trade deal with the United States. Despite claims by former National Security Advisor John Bolton that “If there was a no-deal Brexit … We would support it enthusiastically”, post-Brexit Britain would find itself tumbling down the list of US strategic allies.

But What About Biden?

One hope forwarded by Brexiteers is the idea that the current political climate in the US may force Trump — or Biden should results go his way in November — to offer the UK a good deal based on political necessity. This week, British newspaper The Express ran with the headline “Brexit boost: Donald Trump ‘begging for UK trade deal’ amid election worries” — with Conservative MP Andrew Bridgen stating in the article that “Donald Trump being president will make it easier — they are having an election this year, which makes it more likely we can get a trade deal”. However, what about if Donald Trump is defeated in November?

If Donald Trump represents the ‘pro-Brexit’ side of the US political divide, Joe Biden would almost certainly be a nightmare for those Brexiteers hoping to conclude a trade deal. As noted by Mark Landler in the New York Times, “Mr. Biden is not likely to attach the same priority to a trade deal that Mr. Trump has”, with the Obama administration (of which Biden was Vice President) famously threatening that the UK would see themselves at the “back of the queue” for any future trade agreements.

Democrats in the US have long taken a tough stance on Brexit, with Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi warning back in 2019 that Brexiteers should “not think for one minute that there’s any comfort for them that if they leave the EU they will quickly have a US-UK trade agreement”. In particular, a strong Irish-America lobby will look to ensure any Post-Brexit trade deal does not violate the Good Friday Agreement — with Pelosi threatening that “If there were to be any weakening of the Good Friday accords … there would be no chance whatsoever, a nonstarter, for a US-UK trade agreement”. Given Biden’s own proud Irish-American heritage, it would appear that a Biden victory in November would only worsen the UK’s hope of a favorable trade agreement.

That is not to say that a UK-US trade agreement would not be beneficial to the UK, or that any kind of agreement is impossible. After all, the United States is the world’s largest economy, and clearly both sides have mutual interests when it comes to ensuring a deal is made. However, the notion held by some Brexiteers that the US is ‘begging for a deal’ or that such a deal will replace any loss in trade from the European Union would appear to be misguided. Despite both Trump and Johnson’s enthusiasm towards the Brexit project, it is clear that a long, bumpy road lies ahead for any future deal.