What Are the Top 15 Assets on the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers?

Ranking Embiid, Kyrie, Simmons, Hayward, Fultz, Tatum, coaches, draft picks, cap space, and more from the two most loaded war chests in the entire NBA

The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers met in the NBA playoffs last week, not for the first time and certainly not the last. The Cavs have LeBron, the Rockets have the point gods, and the Warriors have everyone else, but Boston and Philly are the future. They have the two most loaded war chests in the entire NBA, with players and assets that will carry them into contention for the next decade of basketball.

Al Horford, Gordon Hayward, and Joel Embiid are already max players, and Kyrie Irving will be soon. Ben Simmons and Jayson Tatum are two of best rookies we’ve seen in a long time. There are role players and draft picks and coaches and cap space. These teams have everything, and almost every asset on either team is a net positive (sorry, Jerryd Bayless).

But all assets are not created equal. So which of the assets on Philadelphia and Boston are more valuable than all the rest? Which assets make the top 15… and which one is the biggest prize of them all? Let’s rank this thing.

A Bird in the Hand

15. LaKings pick, Boston edition 14. LaKings pick, Philly edition 13. Philadelphia’s cap space

These are the assets-to-be. They could be really good, but for now they’re just hypotheticals, and hypotheticals are only so valuable for teams already competing at the highest level right now.

The LaKings pick is a combination of this year’s Lakers pick and next year’s Kings pick. The Sixers included the rights to one of the picks along with last year’s #3 pick to move up to #1 and select Markelle Fultz. Boston took Jayson Tatum. On Tuesday night, we’ll finally know how this LaKings pick will split.

This year’s Lakers pick is currently slotted at #10. There’s a 1.1% chance the pick vaults all the way to #1 and a 2.9% chance it jumps to #2 or 3. Otherwise it stays around #10. That pick will belong to Philadelphia unless it ends up at #2 or #3, in which case it will be Boston’s.

Assuming that Lakers pick officially remains Philly’s in the lottery, the Celtics will own the 2019 Kings pick. Sacramento should be pretty bad again, but they’ll also have no reason to tank, so it’s reasonable to expect that pick to fall in the #5 to #8 range. Of course it could always jump in the lottery and, after the lottery reform this year, those odds are a bit better. One important note: if the Kings pick wins the lottery next year, Philadelphia gets to keep the pick and give up their own pick instead. If the Kings are as bad as expected, that could give Philly as much as a 14% chance at the top pick next summer.

At the end of the day, here’s what those picks likely mean:

• Philly likely picks #10 this year, with about a 10% chance of grabbing the #1 pick this season or next
• Boston likely picks in the 5-to-8 range next year, with around a 22% chance of grabbing the #2 or #3 pick this season or next

So which do you prefer?

It’s complicated, but I give a slight edge to Philadelphia. This is not the NFL or MLB. NBA drafts are top-heavy, and the #1 pick has franchise-changing value, while there’s often a significant drop to 2 or 3. Just look at what the Sixers gave up last year to move up from 3 to 1. The third pick in the draft is Bradley Beal, O.J. Mayo, or Carmelo Anthony. The first pick is Anthony Davis, Derrick Rose, or LeBron James. I’d rather have a 10% chance at 1 than a 22% chance at 2 or 3. And it’s no certainty that picking 6 or 7 in next year’s draft is all that much worse than picking at 10 in this year’s deeper, better class. That Lakers pick turns into a playable asset one year earlier too. It’s close, but Philly gets the edge.

Neither pick as is valuable right now as Philadelphia’s cap space, enough to grab a max free agent this summer. Philly’s cap space could be Paul George or Kevin Durant. It could be LeBron James. And it’s important to note that this is not just any team’s cap space — it’s Philadelphia’s. That means room for a superstar free agent and the possibility to play next to Simmons and Embiid. This is not Atlanta or Sacramento cap space, useful only for overpaying mid-tier players and taking on bad contracts. This could turn into something real.

Of course, it could also turn into $34 million of J.J. Redick and Amir Johnson, like it did last summer. There are only so many PGs and LeBrons. And until that cap space becomes something real, it can only rank 13th on our list.

They’re More Valuable to Us Than You

12. Terry Rozier 11. Robert Covington 10. Dario Saric

It’s been a heck of a run for Scary Terry, who would never have even sniffed this list a couple months ago. Boston is not better without Kyrie Irving, but the way Rozier is playing, it’s hard to argue that they’re much worse. Rozier is averaging 17/6/6 in the playoffs with a 38% three and better than 4-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, and he’s shown up biggest in the clutch. It’s possible he would be an immediate point guard upgrade for half the teams in the NBA.

Rozier turns back into a backup next fall, which might make him a trade asset since he can hardly drop to 14 minutes a game behind Kyrie. But with Irving’s injury history, Rozier might be more valuable in Boston next season than as a trade asset for a slight upgrade elsewhere. Rozier is entering the last year of his contract, so that hurts his value too.

Robert Covington already signed his extension, and it looks incredibly valuable at 4-years $47-million, just now kicking in. Covington was bad against the Celtics, but he’s a long switchy player with all-defense skills and a useful three, the perfect fifth starter on a reasonable contract that will last the rest of his prime.

Dario Saric just turned 24 and made a huge leap this season. Saric is not the star in Philadelphia, but he’s a bit like Draymond Green in that he’s the perfect third guy that unlocks everything on this team. Saric plays away from the rim, leaving space for Simmons and Embiid to operate, with a 39% three and an underrated passing and playmaking ability that opens up Philly’s attack. Saric is still on a rookie deal for two years and probably turns into a reasonable contract after that since he’s more valuable than his stats appear. He’s an incredibly important Sixer. Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid can’t be what they are without Dario Saric.

The Max Guys

9. Gordon Hayward 8. Al Horford

Horford is due $29 million next season with a $30-million player option he’ll likely pick up for the following year at age 32. Hayward’s deal is 2-years $64-million, plus a player option for $34 million after that. But Hayward’s option is at age 30, so he likely turns it down to hit the market for a bigger deal. These guys are essentially on the same two-year max contract.

In a vacuum, Hayward is more valuable. He offers more versatility and he’s younger. Big men in their 30s do not age well, though Horford has the sort of game that should age well enough. Horford’s value has been on display all postseason. Both guys are absolutely max players.

Still, Gordon Hayward is recovering from a horrific injury, and as easy as it is to point to Paul George, there are plenty of Derrick Roses and Chandler Parsons out there who never quite recovered physically or mentally. Even PG struggled in his first year back from injury, with the most turnovers and worst two-point percentage of his career. Best case scenario, Boston spent $94 million on one lost year, one sub-par Hayward year, and one last year of his prime before he starts to decline on a new more expensive contract. But a lot can go wrong here. Hayward could never quite recover fully. He could struggle to regain his job from the younger, more athletic Tatum and Brown. He could theoretically turn into a negative asset, one that opts into that last contract year because he won’t get that money anywhere else.

We know what we’re getting with Horford. Peak Hayward may be a little more valuable, but his range of outcomes casts him below Big Al.

Al Horford and Gordon Hayward are incredibly versatile, talented NBA All-Stars, and neither one of them is a top-seven asset between these two teams. That’s just unfair.

Don’t Tell Anyone, But We’ll Listen

7. Markelle Fultz 6. Kyrie Irving 5. Jaylen Brown

Look, none of us have any idea what to do with Markelle Fultz right now. Maybe he should be higher on this list. Maybe lower. Maybe he shouldn’t be on it at all until we know the kid can actually shoot a basketball. We just don’t know much.

Let’s focus on what we do know. We know Fultz was the unanimous top pick in what was clearly a loaded draft, a generational talent at point guard that can score at every level and one of the most talented, well-rounded guards to come out in years. We know that Fultz basically didn’t have a rookie season, but we also know that Simmons and Embiid didn’t either and that sure didn’t seem to make them terrible players. We know that Fultz’s presumed skill set, his ability to create his own shot, to add off-ball shooting, his length and defensive upside, fit perfectly onto this Philadelphia roster in a role that was missing from this year’s playoff run. We also know that, if we’re being honest, we all gave up way too early on Simmons and Embiid after perilous starts.

Fultz will have to be a superstar at this point for Philly’s trade to have been worth it, as good as Tatum has been, but he still looks incredibly valuable and important going forward. And until we see what a healthy Fultz looks like in a real NBA game, we have to assume the near-unanimous evaluation of him as an elite prospect last summer.

Kyrie has proven to be a superstar, but he’s also only under contract one more season. He has a $21-million player option for 2019–20 he’ll never pick up, not at age 27 with a max deal waiting. Still, Irving is a bona fide superstar still entering his prime worth any contract he gets, and that contract will probably be in Boston. He should be viewed as a long-term asset.

But there are some question marks. The injuries are starting to pile up. This is the fourth time in seven seasons Irving has failed to play more than 60 games, and it’s the second time he hasn’t been healthy enough to help his team on a potential Finals run. We also know that Kyrie is wired different. What if he is asked to play 28 minutes a game next season so Rozier and Smart can play more, to save himself for the playoffs? What if he only gets 14 shots a game so Tatum and Brown can get theirs? What if he feels like Hayward’s connection with Brad Stevens makes Hayward and not Irving the alpha dog in Boston? We already know Irving opted out of playing with the best player of his generation; who’s to say he wouldn’t opt out of the next great dynasty too? It’s those question marks that leave his value in flux.

Remember how Robert Covington was the perfect fifth starter on a good team? Jaylen Brown might make that look silly… or he might just be better than a fifth starter. Juice was supposed to be a stingy defending role player who learned how to shoot a little eventually. If that’s what you still think of Jaylen Brown, where have you been for the last month? Brown’s averaging 17 a game on 43% from downtown, a sparkling 59% true shooting, and he’s been the best player on the court at times in games featuring much bigger names.

Last year, Brown averaged seven points and three boards, and he probably wouldn’t have made a top ten list of Philly and Boston assets. Now he might be the focal point of a Kawhi Leonard trade offer — or he might already be too valuable to include in such a deal. Brown is 21 years old and under contract for less than $12 million the next two years, and he’s under team control another four or five years after that. Every team in the league can use another versatile wing that can defend, hit shots, and play within the system. At this point, the only qualms you might have left with Jaylen Brown’s ranking is that he might deserve to be higher.

The Prized Assets

4. Brad Stevens 3. Jayson Tatum

The cult of Brad Stevens has grown large and loud the last few weeks, but it’s hard to say it’s not deserved. Stevens has worked miracles with this team, and he’s the rare head coach who’s just as brilliant at in-game adjustments as he is at developing young talent and team chemistry in between. Some coaches are great at either offense or defense. Some develop camaraderie, and some are good at player development. Stevens is the whole package. He also counts for exactly $0.00 against the salary cap, and at age 41, there’s no reason to believe he won’t be in Boston for the next decade or three.

During the horrible four-day NBA-less stretch last week, social media decided to debate whether a franchise starting from scratch would rather begin with a player of their choice or Brad Stevens. Let’s not be silly. The Celtics could be up three games to none against the Cavs, up 15 going into the fourth quarter, and we still won’t rule out LeBron doing something special. Players are king.

Not everything needs to be compared. Brad Stevens is awesome. No need to diminish his value by comparing him to the LeBrons and Stephs of the world.

But since that’s what we’re doing here, I’d rather start a franchise with Jayson Tatum. I was not a Tatum believer pre-draft (nor Brown, nor Rozier — score one for coaching and development), but he’s been phenomenal. Tatum turned 20 two months ago, and he’s slashing 19/5/3 as the go-to scorer on a team that knocked out Giannis, Simmons, and Embiid and might add LeBron to that list. His shooting splits this season were 48/43/83. If Tatum hits 18 more field goals and free throws, that’s a 50/40/90 rookie season. A sweet-shooting wing with a smooth game that can create his own shot any time he wants and play high-end team defense? Yeah, that sounds pretty useful in the modern NBA. Especially for a 20-year-old under team control on a friendly deal for eight more seasons and a guy that’s clearly unafraid of the moment.

Boston fans think Jayson Tatum is a future Hall of Famer. He certainly looks like an annual All Star, and he might be soon. And still, it feels like there’s a difference between perennial All Star and super duper star…

The Superstars

2. Joel Embiid 1. Ben Simmons

Simmons and Embiid have to top this list. You can quibble about the order, and you can argue that Tatum might belong in this tier, but it’s Joel and Ben at the top however you get there. So which player would you start your franchise with, if you can only pick one?

Embiid is the easier answer. He is Hakeem Olajuwon II, the big man that can do everything on both ends. He is a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate, one of a few players in the entire league that can transform any defense into a top-five unit. He doesn’t have any obvious flaws in his game. He can shoot, dribble, pass, and defend, and he’s still just scratching the surface of his talents.

Simmons’s flaws are more apparent, especially after he struggled last round. His jumper is M.I.A., and it looks like a serious limitation. His defense is very good, but not as valuable as Embiid’s. He doesn’t have the ability to take over a game like Embiid right now, not on either end of the court.

So why pick Simmons?

Simmons is still on his rookie contract two more seasons. That’s two years of cheap service versus Embiid’s max deal already kicking in, and it’s two more years of Simmons than Embiid. Simmons is also healthy, with no real long-term risk. Choosing Simmons means seven years of 75+ games of high-level basketball. Embiid means five years of 60 games, maybe missing the playoffs one of those years, and maybe another year he misses most or all of the season. Do the math, and you might get twice as many games out of Ben Simmons as with Embiid. There’s also the serious downside of Embiid’s contract turning sour if his injuries recur and the probability that Simmons ages much better than Embiid.

As much as Embiid has already improved, he’s got plenty of room to grow. He needs to cut down his fouls and his turnovers, and he needs to start hitting his threes (31% this season) as often as we like to pretend he does. He has the ability to become a master in the post, but we now know the post is an inefficient means of scoring. Simmons creates more efficient means of scoring on threes and back cuts and in transition. He averaged 16/8/8 as a rookie point guard. He is absolutely the Rookie of the Year, and Embiid should have been last season’s.

Embiid might have the higher upside, but that’s not even a certainty, and he has a much clearer downside and plays fewer minutes and fewer games. If you can only pick one Philly asset to build your team around, Ben Simmons is the pick. Lucky for Philadelphia, they don’t have to choose.

Conclusions and Takeaways

Boston and Philadelphia are stacked. It looks like they’ll be clashing in the East for years to come.

Take a look at the list of assets above. There are some NBA teams without a single asset that would crack the top ten on this list. Take the Bulls, for example. Where does Lauri Markkanen fit in? Isn’t Dario Saric already a pretty good version of what Markkanen hopes to become, not as good a shooter but better at passing and other things? The Kings don’t have any assets that crack the top ten. The Raptors just won 59 games. Do they have a top-ten asset here? It’s arguable. Boston and Philly are loaded.

And these aren’t even these teams’ only assets. What about Boston’s front office or the job Brett Brown has done coaching the Sixers? How about the upcoming Grizzlies pick Boston owns or the rights Philly owns to overseas stars like Jonah Bolden and Anzejs Paseckniks? What about $5 million next year for LeBron-stopper Marcus Morris or $5 million the next three years for Giannis-stopper Semi Ojeleye? Or young Philly wings Timothe Luwau-Cabbarot and Furkan Korkmaz, or Boston’s restricted matching rights on Marcus Smart? That’s ten more assets that could’ve easily made a list, and Boston fans are probably just pissed we didn’t mention Daniel Theis yet.

Let’s break down the list above by team rankings…

Philly: 1, 2, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14 Boston: 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 12, 15

The Sixers have the top two assets, but Boston has six of the top nine — and maybe six of the top eight, depending on where you slot Fultz. And if you think these teams are already really good, remember that three of the top nine guys on this list didn’t even get any real playoff time this year.

The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers are really, really good. And they might still only be scratching the surface.

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