Today: the most exciting time ever to be in tech

Yes, I said it…I believe right now is the most exciting time ever to be in tech*!

Today, we are living through a time where technology of all kinds (AI, quantum, the metaverse, etc) is rapidly advancing, talent is being unlocked across the industry, and capital (for the most part), is going to businesses with real fundamentals and paths to profitability.

So yes, I am optimistic and excited about the opportunities all around. And I believe you should be, too. But moreover, you should figure out how you can be a part of it.

And I don’t mean to imply that there isn’t chaos everywhere you turn. There is. And amidst this constructive chaos, is opportunity.

We’re seeing this in the number of new early stage companies being founded, in the U.S., and abroad. Many of these companies are being founded by experienced leaders, people who have lived through the ups and downs of other companies, and have the requisite experience and networks to make their ventures successful. We’re seeing this in the ongoing restructuring of large and medium sized tech companies, as they evolve their organization for the future, with some painful consequences for individual workers. And we’re seeing this in non-tech industries, with companies and the government focused on adapting to stay relevant and in charge.

Who will win in this race? The runners who stay nimble, adaptable, and open to change. Those runners will learn to embrace and apply the technology to real problems, and create unimaginable value for themselves, and their organizations.

The technology. This goes without saying, but the fundamental advances in technology today are creating innovation opportunities on par with that of the Industrial Revolution. And the advancement continues to be rapid. While I am thinking about all types of emerging tech, let’s look at Artificial Intelligence as an example.

I remember early into my time at Primer AI, watching a talk from former CEO Sean Gourley, where he outlined the progress of AI over the past ~5 years, showing how image generation went from a pixelated mess to photo-realistic imagery in this period (see image below). And in just a year and a half since his talk, genAI has more or less rendered the $6.4B stock photography industry useless, something very few people would have predicted even in 2020. In it’s place, incredible image generation tools are springing up, integrating with existing design platforms, and democratizing access to high quality imagery.

This rapid advancement of core technologies of content detection, generation, and unfortunately, manipulation, has the potential to bring both positive change and empower malicious actors in every field globally. Just this month we’ve seen this — from McAfree releasing an AI-powered deepfake audio detection tool to the fake AI-generated Taylor Swift Twitter porn.

As AI accelerates in capability, quantum advances and the metaverse becomes more accessible, we will see whole industries pop up, change, and/or disappear. And with that comes incredible opportunity for both organizations and individuals.

The individuals. Golden handcuffs are real. I know, I worked at Google for 15 years, working my way up to the executive ranks. And when I left, it was very hard to leave my unvested equity and very healthy pay package on the table, and take a risk on an unknown ~200 person start up. But when I did, I felt like a new person. It was like my world went from black & white to color. The level of autonomy & impact I had in my first few weeks at the Series C start up felt like more than I had in the entire year prior.

I know many people have not chosen (and maybe would not have chosen) to leave their well-paying, very successful employers right now. Some have. But whether it has been by choice, or by circumstance, the incredible talent that once flocked to Google, Meta, Apple, etc., is now becoming free!

And that talent is experienced, intelligent, and connected across the tech world. And ready to make a difference. On the Xoogler network alone, there are 1,099 current & ex-googlers engaged on the “find a cofounder” slack channel, and very active networks trading connections, job opportunities, etc., across this talent pool.

Imagine this type of activity multiplied by 1000 across the tech industry as smart, motivated candidates realize that the opportunity to design the future now sits just as much outside as inside the former tech elite.

In addition to those forced to leave, many more will proactively make their jump to be in the driver’s seat of growth.

The money. Speaking of growth…there is a ton of capital out there, waiting to be deployed to companies with an actual “there there,” i.e. real business fundamentals. It’s kind of old news now, how former Series C/D/E companies raised money with sky high valuations, and have had to take down rounds, find acquirers, or shut down and return the rest of the funds, as their business fundamentals either aren’t there or plans did not come through. This sucks. It sucks for everyone in the company, the investors, and for an industry that has been hyperfocused on growth at all costs.

But it was also a necessary correction. We know that only 3% of all start ups ever go public, and a start up is a risky venture. And that the valuations many tech companies were yielding in the era of low cost, free flowing capital just didn’t make sense. So the correction has come. Global VC funding fell 35% YoY to $345B in 2023, with fundraising falling 48% to $161B (Pitchbook).

What I’m finding compelling, however, is the number of seed / early stage start ups that ARE getting funded — mostly on the back of actual compelling business ideas and real paths to profitability (and outside of genAI, much more reasonable valuations). As one VC partner advised for those looking for start up roles: ”Look at the companies who’ve recently raised. They’ll only get funding if they have a real business. The later stage ones who haven’t raised in 2 years are likely still contracting as they look for a path for profitability.” Word.

Seed/Angel investment dollars are actually up in comparison to pre-pandemic years (2019/2020), and companies are executing for longer between Seed and Series A, reducing investor risk in between raises. This is good, as again, it means better fundamentals, and less risk for everyone.

Conclusion. Where we have such rapid advancement of technology, a growing population of talent looking for growth (and jobs!), and smart money going into strong business ideas…we have opportunity on par with the greatest industrial and technological revolutions any of us have experienced.

The question is…will you sit on the sidelines and watch, or jump into the action and write the future?

The choice is yours.

*****

(*This post does not mean to counter what many individuals are likely feeling if they have been recently laid off from their roles in tech companies — if this is the case, please take advantage of your communities, coaches, and other resources (ex:Jobagent.pro, Kadima Careers) that can help you take the right next steps for your situation.)