To Vax, or Not to Vax?
Doing the math …
January 2021: on the cusp of a decision
The end of the Reign of Corona is at hand. Rather, at arm: hit me (ouch!) … three-week pause … hit me again (wince).
Odds are 95 percent that even if I were to contract the coronavirus post-vaccination, my immune system would destroy it before I could pass it on. Furthermore, the larger the vaccinated population, the fewer the spewers.
Despite the ouch factor, I will scrunch my face, grit my teeth, and take it like a … sniveling six-year-old.
Courtesy of coronavirus “world meter” as of January 2021
There are 85,229,481 confirmed cases worldwide to date. Had this population been vaccinated, only 5% would have become infected: i.e., 4,261,474.
Extrapolating to the mortality toll, 95% of the 1,845,408 deaths would have been averted; tally: 92,270.
If I were not vaccinated and became infected, there would be only a five percent chance that a vaccinated person in my circle would contract Corona from me given the level of protection afforded them by the vaccine.
Which is no big deal, really. Out of the 4,261,474 cases projected (post widespread vaccination), only 92,270 people would die.
I’ve been rounding up thus far. To be precise, the efficacy rate of the vaccine is only 94.5%. Time out, recalculating …
Substitute: out of the 4,687,621 projected cases, only 101,497 people would die.
In sum: The 95.4% efficacy rate of the vaccine is persuasive as to my self-interest. Regardless, the flip side of the formula compels me to take the vaccine: i.e., for the sake of the unfortunate “only” five — make that 5.5 — percent of the vaccinated population who will nonetheless contract the coronavirus. If I’d declined to get vaccinated, I’d be overcome with guilt if any of those people caught it from me.
Statistics have changed since the time of this writing; the vaccine is not as protective as originally thought: 92% for Moderna; 86% for Pfizer. All the more reason to take it for the sake of the 8% to 14% who will contract the coronavirus, notwithstanding that they had been vaccinated. So be it: let them contract it from someone other than me.
COVID-19 vaccine efficacy summary | Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (healthdata.org) February 18, 2022