Things Are Not Going Well for Russians on the Ground

Bombs dropped from the sky try to camouflage the Russian military’s poor performance on the ground.

To give some perspective on the poor planning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and how greatly Putin miscalculated the time it would take to seize Kyiv, Russian troops were sent into Ukraine three weeks ago, under the assumption they were going for a military exercise which turned out not to be true.

They were going to die in a war.

Military incompetence and the miscalculations of war

Russian forces have suffered significant casualties and setbacks, so great, they cannot carry out combat-related tasks.

According to the New York Times,

“Pentagon officials say a 10 percent casualty rate, including dead and wounded, for a single unit renders it unable to carry out combat-related tasks. With more than 150,000 Russian troops now involved in the war in Ukraine, Russian casualties, when including the estimated 14,00o to 21,000 injured, are near that level.”

Russia has proven it doesn’t take great military strength and experience to massacre innocent civilians.

Especially from the skies.

The military campaign is not going the way Russia thought it would either. The Russian military is proving not very competent.

The Ukrainian defensive positions, many of which are set up by civilian defense forces, are not only standing their ground but are starting to inflict heavy casualties for the Russians.

So far, 7,000 Russian soldiers have died in less than three weeks of fighting. That is a conservative estimate.

The Ukrainians are giving the Russians such a fight that they have stalled Russian ground invasion, halting their ground troops, which has made Putin turn to the skies. We have seen attacks on hospitals, schools, and residential buildings destroyed by bombs dropped from the sky to camouflage the Russian military’s poor performance on the ground.

Odesa — Ukraine’s third-largest port city

Odesa, Ukraine, sits on the border of Moldova, capturing it would essentially cut off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea, one of Putin’s goals.

In the last 24 hours, Russia has ramped up its activity in the Black Sea and is shelling Odesa’s suburbs. It’s been slowly run by Russia’s Naval Infantry, and civilians are starting to flee.

Last week, the weather hindered a sea-born attack by Russians, but the Ukrainian forces are waiting for them and preparing.

Swaths of Odesa’s famous shoreline have been seeded with landmines and obstacles to slow down a beach landing as civilians in Odesa fill bags with sand and take them to the edge of Odesa’s beaches.

Civilians are evacuating the city and taking buses to west Moldova to escape the coming violence.

If Odesa falls to Russia, they’ll control the Black Sea cities and ports and will have created a land bridge that runs from eastern provinces through the Black Sea, denying Ukraine access.

How does this war end?

No one knows how long this war will last, if Russia will take part of Ukraine, annex it, and rule by force, or if this ends in diplomacy at gunpoint or after years of fighting.

We know Putin could withdraw his troops and leave Ukraine and end the war, but that is not likely to happen.

That Putin was unable to see the resistance and courage he would be up against in Ukraine doesn’t really matter. He is now at war and unlikely to back down.

Russia has a history of overestimating its greatness in economic and military power.

But unfortunately, Putin is in denial of this

A Russian military border — that is fluid

If Russia takes eastern Ukraine, we will not know where Russia ends; Russia has absorbed neighboring country Belarus into its military orbit in the last couple of weeks.

That puts a kind of Russian military perimeter right on the border of Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland.

This is a new development since the war in Ukraine that is shocking in its own right, that we would be paying more attention to if there weren’t a war going on.

If Russia succeeds and Ukraine is partitioned, we will have a Western Ukraine armed to the teeth, a sight of enormous conflict. And an Eastern Ukraine trying to seek military advantage against Russia to destabilize the situation with the help of the United States, NATO, and many European countries, which could bring about the third World War.

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Jessica is a writer, an online entrepreneur, and a recovering Type A personality. She lives in Los Angeles with her extrovert daughter, two dogs, and two cats.