The Worst Is Yet to Come

Record heat in countless countries, humanitarian catastrophes, poverty, and war are just the start

Last Week in Collapse is a weekly guest column round-up that brings together some of the most important, timely, useful, depressing, ironic, amazing, or otherwise must-see moments in Collapse:

The top climate scientist James Hansen is warning of massive warming ahead. He advocates a carbon tax and solar geoengineering attempts. “We would be damned fools and bad scientists if we didn’t expect an acceleration of global warming,” said Hansen. The full, 33-page study has some interesting graphs illustrating the rate of warming.

Trick or treat. The 2023 Ecological Threat Report is out, 77 pages of Doom. The 4 factors considered are: food insecurity, water stress, natural disasters, and demographic pressures. Over 1B people currently live in states with low societal resistance. The report claims the population of sub-Saharan Africa will rise 60%+ (another 2.2B people) by 2050; this is also the region in which “81 per cent of people suffering from extreme food insecurity globally live”.

The report also says that 2B people currently live without access to safe drinking water, a number sure to increase. It is predicted that almost all nations on earth will have contractionary population pyramids by 2050. The full report emphasizes the link between resource scarcity and conflict, and is well worth skimming.

“In 2050, the three largest megacities in the world are expected to be Mumbai, Delhi and Dhaka with populations of 42 million, 36 million and 35 million, respectively. More than 60 per cent of the world’s current megacities are in low or very low peace countries…Of the 20 most polluted cities globally, only three are not in India or China…More than 60 per cent of all refugees and 80 per cent of internally displaced people move to cities.”

Hundreds of elephants died in 2020 in Botswana — and scientists say they now have the answer: cyanobacteria. Flooding and warmer temperatures create conditions for cyanobacteria to flourish.

Nepal’s mountains have lost a third of their ice over the past 30 years. An unknown number of people died after a landslide in Sikkim, India, which delayed the operation of a 2,000-megawatt dam being constructed downriver.

Earlier this year, the Panama Canal authorities lowered the number of ships that can transit the Canal from about 36 daily to 31. Water levels are too low to operate the system of locks for a large number of ships. Once again, they are reducing the number of ships that can pass through — to 25. It is expected to be reduced to 18 by February 2024. This will increase prices of goods, and redirect cargo vessels around Cape Horn, a more fuel-intensive route.

The gigantic Murray-Darling river basin sits in southeast Australia, and it’s drying up. A multi-billion dollar effort to build up water reserves has gone over budget and underdelivered its promise. The government’s 42-page report has more details.

The solar cycle — a ~11 year period relating to sunspots, magnetism, and solar radiation — is expected to peak next year between January and October. The occasion is coming faster than expected, and projected to last longer than first believed.

Wildfires burn across northern Australia. 99% of newborn Florida turtles are female as a result of global warming. Lakes at higher altitudes are warming faster than most other lakes.

Temperature patterns from October 2015–2023 indicate an increase of .38 °C in the surface temperature over the last decade. Hottest November temperatures have already been set in the Philippines, and part of India, and in North & South korea, and in much of China, and in Russia (30.1 °C!), and in Dubai and Tunisia, and in Cyprus. Prague just finished its hottest October on record too.

Storm Ciarán bashed Western Europe, killing 15 people and flooding Tuscany. Production of olive oil is crashing hard.

New research suggests that cyclonic eddies (giant spinning vortices of ocean water) contain heat — and can unleash marine heat waves when they collide with traditional ocean currents. Another paywalled study summary suggests that our global water cycle is intimately linked with temperatures. Scientists are still learning about the complex ways in which Caribbean salinity affects the AMOC, and what comes next.

A study posted in Science suggests that El Niño may be drying out the Southern Hemisphere. I don’t have to explain the consequences: shifting temperature patterns, local extinction, global crop interference, migration, wildfires, and changing ocean currents. Health authorities are still struggling to rollout heat warning services to much of the world.

Late on Friday night, a 5.7 earthquake killed 150+ people in western Nepal. Hundreds injured.

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Cancer. Heart attacks. Strokes. These are some serious symptoms that have seen a 21% increase in young people following the COVID-19 pandemic, according to an Indian study. The laundry list of Long COVID symptoms is over 200 now, and a study suggests that about one third of COVID survivors develop Long COVID. 14% of Americans claim to have had, or currently have, Long COVID, and, as of the end of last year, about half of U.S. residents have contracted the illness. The most debilitating cases of Long COVID are being ignored.

Most U.S. med students don’t plan on treating patients, preferring back-end roles like research, administration, and equipment management. For the first time in 20 years, the U.S. has seen an increase in infant mortality: 5.6 infant deaths per 1,000 live births according to 2022 data..

DC-area landlords are allegedly colluding to raise rents by outsourcing rent pricing to algorithms. Mayotte is turning to bottled water as it faces a once-in-in-century drought.

Indonesia is going to keep running its coal plants, with the G7’s blessing. This will make it impossible difficult for Indonesia to achieve its 2030 emissions targets, but they’ll be in good company. Australia and Germany will also not meet their climate goals for 2030. We will reach 1.5 °C warming within a few years, if we’re not already there, and the cascading effects will tumble down unstoppably.

U.S. oil production hit record highs last August, it was reported. Serbia runs 70% of its electricity from coal, relying on a mining operation that runs 24/7/365 without interruption. The Arctic is increasingly industrialized in a scramble to extract resources and prepare military installations for future global conflicts.

Shipping giant Maersk is cutting 10,000+ jobs (out of a total ~110,000) as a result of a major slowdown in shipping. “I think we’re looking at a pretty dire situation in 2024,” said the CEO. Maersk is responsible for roughly one sixth of all global container trade.

China is the world’s largest wheat producer & consumer — but it’s still hungry. Their wheat imports for 2023 are about 12M tonnes, up from last year’s 10M tonnes imported. As much as 20% of China’s harvest was damaged by rains this year, forcing it to buy (earlier than expected) French, Australian, and Canadian wheat crops. China’s increasing demand for beef is supplied by (often illegal ranchers in) Brazil, and facilitated by American companies. Deforestation of the Amazon results in temperature changes 100km away, reducing rainfall and promoting savannahfication, based on a new study. The Amazon is only beginning to dry up…

On Friday, Delhi’s air quality hit levels 100x the WHO limit for safe breathing, maxing out their toxic measurement at 500. On the different Air Quality Index (AQI), a scale of 0–999, Delhi maxed out the pollution rating, with 999. The air was so bad that school was canceled. On the AQI, 0–50 is considered good & safe breathing air.

Cholera is spreading in Zimbabwe. At least scientists are learning more about how to treat cholera and how it affects the human body. Alongside measles, malaria, and dengue, cholera is spreading in Sudan too, amid the near-complete Collapse of healthcare facilities.

Climate anxiety can be debilitating and demoralizing. Some people are turning to psychedelics like MDMA, ketamine, and psilocybin mushrooms to manage their grief. This is not an endorsement.

Moroccan orange exports hit 8 year lows, a drop of more than 70% from last year. India’s rice production is down, signaling an extension of the July prohibition on exporting most kinds of rice. Kazakhstan has imposed an export ban on liquified petroleum gas, causing a supply crisis in Tajikistan.

Global interest rates are rising, and inflation is still with us. Chinese economic growth is supposedly slowing. Conflicts and financing pressures are pushing debts up, while megacorporations are keeping people poor. Manufacturing contracted in the U.S. in October, alongside the Eurozone.

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Following a deadly riot in Dhaka, Bangladesh imprisoned an opposition leader. Tensions are increasing between China and the Philippines over a long shipwrecked vessel and claims to the disputed Spratly Islands. Protests continue in Tunisia.

Latvia is bringing back conscription for males 18–27 years old. About one year active, then 5 in the Reserve. Exemptions exist, but they don’t appear to be widely available.

North Korea has sent 1M artillery rounds to Russia, according to U.S. intelligence. The UN confirmed that a Russian missile strike at a café in Hroza in early October killed 59 civilians. Ukraine formally labeled Nestlé an international sponsor of War. Russia bombarded 118 settlements within 24 hours, a record for 2023. Russian forces failed an armored assault on Vuhledar, losing 10+ combat vehicles. Zelenskyy is worried that Gaza will distract the world from Ukraine’s plight.

Israeli soldiers are beginning their urban warfare offensive. Yet hundreds of kilometers of underground tunnels beneath Gaza are forcing a more patient approach. IDF are also expected to use “sponge bombs,” a kind of chemical grenade which creates a quickly-expanding foam to seal tunnel passages. They will also likely flood some deep tunnels (some are 40+ meters underground) with seawater. Hamas militants ambush IDF tanks in the streets; Israeli troops turn buildings into rubble as they march on.

People of Gaza, weeks into a fierce blockade and siege, are raiding UN supplies as they become more desperate. Israel has entered northern Gaza, while a small convoy of humanitarian aid entered from Egypt. One retiring UN official called the situation “a text-book case of genocide” against Palestinians. Israel struck a medical convoy, killing at least 15 and injuring dozens more. At least 16 hospitals in Gaza are inoperational. A ceasefire is not coming soon.

Iran’s propaganda is encouraging militant volunteers to fight in Gaza. Israel moved ships to the Red Sea to counter Houthi missiles launched against Israel. The Iran-backed Houthi rebels control most of northern Yemen amid a devastating 9-year Proxy Civil War in the country. Some fear Houthi escalation with the United States and Saudi Arabia. Iran-backed Hezbollah appears not to be joining this War — yet. North Korea is also allegedly planning to arm non-state actors in the Middle East. Naturally, the New York Times is mostly concerned with how War in the Middle East affects the economy.

It is believed that over 9,500 people in Gaza have been killed, with 32,000+ wounded. 1,400+ Israelis were killed so far, mostly in the October 7 assault, with another 5,400+ injured. Total fatalities in this 4-week War have eclipsed the number of dead in the almost-7-month-long War in Sudan. The number of wounded in this Gaza War is more than 3x the wounded in Sudan, but the number of displaced people in Sudan (5.9M) far outpaces those displaced in Israel/Palestine (1.7M).

In Sudan, the insurgent RSF forces have reportedly captured Sudan’s fourth-largest city, Nyala (pre-War pop: ~1M), and the largest city out of the capital region. Nyala is the capital of South Darfur, where over half a million people have been displaced amid reports of ethnic cleansing and genocide. Famine is forcing some people to eat water lilies; others perish from starvation.

While the RSF and government forces are meeting for peace talks, both sides are reportedly stalling for time while their soldiers can rearm and reorganize elsewhere. Some analysts think the War may shift into lower-intensity struggles soon. However, Antony Blinken, the U.S. top diplomat, is warning of an “imminent large-scale attack” in the country’s north. Time will tell, and the people will continue to suffer.

The EU gave 100+ armored vehicles to Ghana to help them combat jihadists from the north. Striking garment workers clashed with scabs and police in Bangladesh, demanding a monthly wage equivalent to about $210 USD, almost 3x their current monthly wage of around $75.

Estimates for total conflict-displaced people in the DRC hit 6.9M people, a sum of years-long turmoil primarily in the east. Elsewhere, the former dictator of Guinea Moïse Camara escaped from jail, with the help of a team of gunmen. Guinea suffered a coup in 2021 that may have paved the way for the 59-year-old Camara’s return to power.

Guatemala’s government, weeks before their new elected president & legislators are set to take office, suspended the political party of the winner. The president-elect is calling this an attempted coup d’état. Protests continue.

Migrants are trying to cross the U.S.-Mexico border in large numbers, over 2M intercepted at the border in 2022 and another 2M+ so far this year. In Germany, patience with migration is over, and a leftist populist is leaving Germany’s die Linke (“the Left”) party (and taking 8 MPs with her) to start her own party, a mix of socialism, anti-migration, Ukraine-skepticism, and anti-vax sentiment. Austria is joining the UK’s attempt to relocate asylum-seekers to Rwanda. Anti-immigrant violence is rising in the Balkans. In Pakistan, door-to-door searches have already uncovered thousands of “illegal refugees” and authorities have reportedly begun deporting them en masse.

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Thanks to the new algorithm you probably missed:

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