The World Is on Track To Surpass 3°C This Century
The Paris Agreement measures put the world on a path to reach 2.5°C to 2.9°C global temperature increase before 2100
Climate change denial is still a thing. Unfortunately, more common than the scientific community would like it to be.
There’s clear evidence of increasing global temperatures and that it’s caused by human activity. And yet, motivated economically, politically or by sheer ignorance, many people still believe climate change isn’t real. There’s always some explanation as an excuse. It cascades down a list that starts with the climate is always changing, passing through the warming isn’t man-made and humans are great at adapting to changes, and finishing with some of the doomsday worst-case scenarios never came to pass. Thankfully they haven’t, yet, but they still might.
UN’s 2023 Emissions Gap Report released earlier this month talks about Earth’s average temperature reaching a whopping 3°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. Well, technically, the forecast is for 2.9°C. That’s a forecast, so of course, it might not happen.
“The shifting of forecasts is evidence that they’re merely forecasts.” — Seth Godin.
Spot on, Seth Godin. That number is only a prediction and thus susceptible to change. The world is on track to a 2.9°C temperature rise above pre-industrial levels. But only if we continue doing what we’re doing. If the signatories of the Paris Agreement fully implement what they said they would, the world will reach temperatures 2.5°C to 2.9°C higher than pre-industrial levels this century.
But it’s not 2100 yet. The UN report isn’t a history lesson talking about historical measurements. It’s a forecast. We still have time to change things; keeping the temperature increase to the hopeful 1.5°C level is still possible. It’s not all gloom and doom.
“We know it is still possible to make the 1.5 degree limit a reality. It requires tearing out the poisoned root of the climate crisis: fossil fuels. And it demands a just, equitable renewables transition.” — Antònio Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations.
But it’s not all rainbows and butterflies, either. Butterflies are one of the most sensitive insects to climate change, so their existence is in grave peril. And so is ours. If temperatures rise above the 2°C threshold, the consequences could be catastrophic, including dangerous environmental changes, such as mass extinction, sea level rises, reduced crop yields, droughts and floods, and serious negative impacts on human health and wellbeing.
Earlier this month, global average temperature spiked above 2°C pre-industrial levels. For now, that was just a spike. One day. But it’s a bad sign. The UN report confirms that nations must go beyond what the Paris Agreement pledges to reduce 2030 emissions by at least 28%, keeping the Earth’s average temperature under the 2°C threshold; emissions must be reduced even further, by 42%, if we’re to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. There has been some progress in the last few years, but not enough.
Predictions are only predictions. Forecasts may show themselves to be wrong. Scientists use the best models available to them to create such predictions. However, they are limited by the available data and what they choose to use.
The 2023 Emissions Gap report brings projections slightly higher than in 2022, as it used more models of estimation of global warming in an attempt to get more accurate and realistic predictions. The complexity of our world can’t be perfectly mimicked by a scientific model alone. And even a large set of models can be flawed in one way or another. But the models are the best we have, and they’re all giving us a warning. Time is running out. The world’s governments need to step up their climate actions if humanity is to have a future. As citizens, we need to demand action from our representatives and use our voting rights to elect those willing to deal with the crisis.
